Finally got a chance to watch 50 to 1 last night... It was surprisingly good. Some things weren't all true in it but you're always going to have some fiction when a story hits the big screen.

Just signed up for the $35 qualifier on Derby Wars... 47 players... Top 6 get into the $235 - $25,000 Derby Day contest. Hoping to satellite in today instead of buying my way in.

Take it down B3!

This is the way to play the big tourneys and do it on the cheap. I am always mad if i have to pay full and i usually just do not enter if i was not good enough to Q. Also not a bad idea B3 to keep playing in these Q's to get multiple tickets saved up and when a tourney you want to play comes up you can have a chance to play multiple (max 3) entries and construct winning tickets with different ideas.

Hear there is a draw today

Churchill Downs 4/29/15

1.) 2-1-5
2.) 6-4-7
3.) 3-4-5
4.) 6-4-3
5.) 2-8-7
6.) 6-9-3
7.) 5-4-8
8.) 7-5-10
9.) 3-4-9
10.) 5-3-9

Looks like another tough card today at CHD.

So far here are a few horses I really dislike. I think upstart and materiality are bad bets. I calculated their times late in the Florida derby and both ran pretty slow late and looked like they would get mowed down vs American pharoah and carpe diem. In that race, the pace was pretty normal. AP ran faster at end of Arkansas derby while the early pace was much quicker compared to the Florida derby. Think both of those horses will hit wall late and go backwards. Think I'm going to bet some supers and trifectas where I single Dortmund+ ap in different spots and go deeper in other spots. Will have multiple tickets. Still think I'm going to really go heavy with wagering on ap finishing 1st. I feel pretty lucky bc I have huge amounts on Dortmund+ ap to win from future wagers. Any thoughts on what odds ap will go off at? I wanna say somewhere between 2-1 and 4-1. Think he's prolly a bad win bet at 2-1 honestly though.

Was the Gulfstream track heavier this year leading to some slower times there?

Looking forward to the draw to try and figure out the pace scenario for this race. Does anyone think there is a chance AP ends up on the lead by his lonesome? And if he is, is that all she wrote or can he be run down?

It seems like it's horses like Ocho, Stanford and Firing Line that would try to get out with Pharaoh but they are all talking about being more comfortable stalking the pace.

GP was very heavy and deep this year and imo why Frosted gave it up at the end there in the FoY,plus the rail was deepest and that is where rider put Frosted as well in the FoY...Not sure i have saw a horse look as good on track before a race as Frosted did that day of the FoY as well.

Time to smoke the pipe

Good omen for me once AP got 18 i said D gets 8...boom!...I set up my public handicapper on sunday and someone thought they were Honcho (as if) so i set it up Honcho818...Good omen for me boys

Eight eighteen if said to any of my kids would get a laugh big time why it is such a cool thing for me and i am all smiles right now and this is before the pipe

https://twitter.com/NBCSN/status/593...360193/photo/1

I've been looking for more reason to exclude C.D. from the top of my tix. Guess I got it with that draw. Looks good for the BB dynamic duo. With all this hype I think AP goes to post under 5-2. I will still be playing him hard. Would love to see an AP Dortmund showdown. Frosted is my number 3. I still wish I could rule out that UAE horse. I think we might get some fair prices to mix in Firing Line and Upstart.

Hey room hope all is well. Honcho glad your happy try to sneak a clean dab in lol . Ok. First off to me. It really really hurts that ocho ocho got the 1 post. He was a top 3 to get out and set up the pace. Now hes just done. 2 carpi diem. 2 post horrible but pletcher horses always get in trouble. This horse found trouble his last big feild at bc juvy. johnny v needs to get him out gate slow stay away from bumping and come pick up peices with a late final 25 seconds to get a 3rd 4th. Materiality. if he breaks fast sets pace if trouble break just to slow like most. Tencendor front runner but slow front runner so will be in back. Look. American Pharoah dortmund and firing line all run sub 23 sub 47 then still 110. 135. At this pace pharoah sat 2nd then first and finished 12 splits but dortmund ran same noone got him. Firing line ran fastest thats why i feel he will be pace setter dortmund and pharoah will sit right behind him if he gets out slow dortmund will set pace AP firing line right behind who can keep up others will try fade at mile. Next group will try to come but either to far or cant run 12s. Maybe mubtajeed but i just see 2 of the 3 battle one falls does he hold 3rd ??? Will have alot under but speed is speed speed and skill is deadly. Hope firing line is 15/20 to 1

18 for ap is bad correct?

Great post SGV and we see it similar i think.

My take and top pick...I was not completely torn between AP and Dort but as close as it comes and i am glad fate decided it for me. I was hoping going into the draw that one of BB's horses gets 6-11 that one wins and if both are in that frame then i am back to a hard hard decision if i have to chose just 1.

I like FL is right next to Dort he has saw this before and knows he owns that horse. I think he will either be right in front or no more than 3-4th place at the first turn. I see AP busting clean from the gate and trying to go right to the front and set the pace or set right off of Dort or Fl if either gets it. I believe it is going to be a decent to fast first half. Coming to the last turn AP tries to get away and just may for short but Dortmund gets him in the last 50-100 yards.

I like Muthj,Frosted,International Star as my wise guy choices that have a style that could pick up the pieces from behind and i will also be using them as a W wager in some dutching.

Next level i like Bolo,Tencender,Keen Ice.

I believe i made a post 3 weeks back explaining how i separated the 2 BB horses and even before the omen draw for me i was Going Dortmund and just for the reasons i mentioned then and a few i will mention now.

He took the turns at Los Al and refused to lose,he took on FL 2x and showed the heart and grit he owned. Watched him win from the front in the SADerby and was a second slower as someone mentioned because he just did not need to go any faster imo. If it was recess and i got first pick i take Dortmund and that is how i reasoned it to myself before the draw and then that sealed it for me period.

It should leave him free to either go out to the lead or sit outside stalking the lead.

I have fallen for Birdatthewire in the Oaks. If she gets a pace to run at it could be a very exciting finish.

One of my bets will be a juicy 13 w 18 double. If I get the 13 it opens up options for me in the derby. Will pay for $2 could be $30?

Plus I fully understand not wanting to bet favorites in the Derby, but c'mon. Just look at the exotic payouts when Orb won (yes I know a very unlikely horse ran second but wheel baby wheel). They were higher than Animal Kingdom's win if I remember correctly (where a longer shot came in on top of favored horses).

And I recall how amazing Fusiachi Pegasus looked coming into the Derby.

American Pharaoh is not being hyped. He looks pretty amazing. Steve Haskin is gushing over him, then says "I don't bet favorites in the Derby." That's okay with me.

HHH

Ocho was never on my ticket but Carpe is drawn off now also. Super nice horse but not from there for me. Probably also to my demise I'm leaving D out of super. I may snap out of it Sat morning...

Value now gone on AP. He went from 10-1 to win the TC to 7-1. That was the only way to play him IMO. I wouldn't bet a 5/2 ML-Favorite (Maybe 2-1 or worse at the gate) in a 13 horse Optional Claiming race let alone a 20 horse field in the Derby. I'll have my Derby pick out there soon.

a little. a 6 horse field made for a pathetic pace, and really, a not very competetive race. still, I don't really know how deep they had the track ripped to know if the slower time is really that indicative of an inferior horse. but I can't get behind Dortmund. he is never going to be able to keep that animal off the pace, and in the Derby, on a non-sloppy track, that is a death wish.

same thing with American Pharoh. I don't know if they can actually rate that animal. And if he tries to put that animal anywhere within four lengths of the lead on the first turn, he's toast.

I like Upstart. You know that he is going to get the trip and he can split horses in the lane. That 108 beyer in the Florida Derby is way too high, but that animal ran a monster in the Holy Bull back in January, that still is the best prep of the entire Derby season this year, and has been the best horse in his last two races.

Should go off at 10:1. Is a must play.

and, is getting 5 weeks rest before the race.

I thought i told everyone yesterday how it was going to play out? Then i wake up and everyone has their OWN ideas? Fine you all can be as wrong as you want then what do i care

Little wet this morning (what she said) at Churchill but still going to cap it to stay in tune also have to cap SA to keep up for this weekend.

I will get some plays and a capped 6-11 tomorrow but i have so many tournaments on Saturday that i will probably just say hey in the morning.

Would love to have some live singled AP bets going into the Derby. I treated Chrome the same way last year with the Pick 3 with Wise Dan & Chrome singled. No obvious Woodford single this year though. 😢

Looking at Birdatthewire & Puca as my money horses in the Oaks. That would pay nice with AP in the Double.

With the way the draw played out If you like Dortmund before you love him now. But if you liked AP before I see no reason to be alarmed.

Churchill Downs 4/30/15

1.) 5-6-4
2.) 6-1-5
3.) 1-6-4
4.) 3-7-2
5.) 5-9-2
6.) 7-9-5
7.) 8-2-7
8.) 4-3-8
9.) 2-5-3
10.) 8-4-1
11.) 7-9-4

Tough card today at CHD.

Santa Anita 4/30/15

1.) 4-2-5
2.) 3-4-2
3.) 4-2-7
4.) 5-4-6
5.) 3-2-4
6.) 7-8-9
7.) 5-4-3
8.) 5-8-9

Nice card today at SA.

Everyone's choice Stanford has been scratched

Dortmund +350 fixed