from 5d - CNN poll winner

The debates this year get 60 million+ viewers. MNF gets around 15-20 million. Game 7 in the neighborhood of 10 million.

Yeah. Does CNN's viewership have a Dem leaning? I just don't really understand the line, though I'm admittedly not much for politics.

that's what i'm thinking too. undecided or not, while cnn isn't msnbc they definitely lean liberal and while i'd hope that it hasn't come to this, having the little lines run higher for obama than romney probably does have value if you want obama to win the election.

finally got around to betting a touch less than 2u to win 1u on obama last night, mostly because i wanted the sweat. this thread being what it is and all. lol

though i'd snap-lose the 2u if i could make the political ads stop. it's ridiculous, literally 3 per commercial break.

i think it was 538 that had the chart on $$$ being spent on adverts in each state, ohio was #1 by a good margin.

i am a casualty of that.

i don't have a standard unit size, but i basically blew my load betting obama at -180. if i had to guess, probably the equivalent of 45u

atta boy.

pretty sure the 3 largest bets i've ever made were all 2008 senatorial races at like -400 or something (some republican in the south was the biggest, he was polling like 12 points ahead the week before the election. nate silver was just loling and i assume betting max over and over). i remember my wife (then g/f) looking at me like i was nuts as i was depositing my entire paycheck onto bodog. hahaha good times

edit to add: remembering now my exact words to her: "if i win, i'll buy you a pair of shoes. if i lose i'll buy you two" LOL WOMEN

Took Obama to win the debate tonight at -190 and -195

I hope I don't have to resort to asking my friends on twitter and FB to vote in the poll (lol I wouldn't really do that for 2 units)

it's a poll?

i was under the impression it was a bunch of undecideds in a room pushing buttons when they hear something they like..

Ya I just googled, you're right. About 500 registered voters decide it.

Whoa. MNF more than debate? Do you just not know many non-sports-fans or something?



This (approximately). People might be a little tired of the debates plus we now have 2 of the 11 channels that aren't showing it live...so maybe it drops to 45-50M or so.


A little more about the last one:

The only reason Obama is favored in this debate is that he's been fairly successful overall in the foreign policy (got Bin Laden, ended war in Iraq, set timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan) with the only major potentially negative issue being the embassy attack and Romney comes across as distasteful/offensive when he directly blames Obama for the lack of security that led to a terrorist attack which is the biggest legitimate criticism he can make of Obama's foreign policy. Unfortunately for Romney, Iraq and Afghanistan were unpopular Republican wars. I'm not saying he can't win the debate, but I think the line on Obama winning the third debate is about accurate.

Since the debate is about foreign policy and Romney's biggest strength as a candidate is attacking Obama on the economy, Romney simply won't be able to rely on talking points without going off topic regularly in this debate.

....and in less than a day the Pinny no-vig line drops 15c to -180.
dimes I'm seeing -175 on BHO. SB has -165 on Barry.

Romney contract up 5.2% today at intrade to +146.

Those -400 bets at Pinny looking prettay prettay nice right now.

I wonder why the line dropped so much today?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc...lk_OH_1022.pdf

TIE in Ohio in D+4 poll via Suffolk. Romney ahead on taxes, economy, deficit. All trivial issues.

R up 13% with undecideds.

OMG ALL THIS COMPETING INFO WHO SHOULD I BELIEVE GUYS?

Reuters Ohio poll shows 46-46 TIE, R up 1 from last poll.

Last few polls almost all have BHO in 45-47% range, terrible place to be for incumbent, with approval ratings under 50.

when i was out of like 2 years ago i always thought i was keitel in bad lt

BUT NAJ NATE AND SWOOP SAID HE'S GONNA WIN WHO THE **** AM I SUPPOSED TO LISTEN TO AAAAHHHHHHHHH

Romney moves to +3 48-45 in Monmouth poll from down 47-46 8 days ago. R+3 in those already voted. Up 9% taxes 6 economy 3 SS/Med. +10 fav vs 0% favorable/unfav BHO.

R wins 57-32 among 2nd debate watchers who changed their mind: 7% of polled.
Ryan +11 fav, Biden -9 unfave. D+4 poll, a lot more realistic than the crazy D+9-11 polls out there, which would require a 10-12% move in D to R voter spread than in 2010.

Romney tied in latest Iowa poll, up 2 points from -2 two weeks ago.

Also up 4 in Rass CO poll, up 5 points from down 1 two weeks ago.

CBS/Q-poll in Ohio shows B. Hussein O. up 5 in a laughable D+9 sample with only 26% Republican voters. lolcat.jpg

Ohio was R+1 in 2010. Obama has lost 15% since last poll among Indys.

Nate's model actually had Obama go up by 2% today. Go figure.

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.c...D-B43EF7C39E26

'Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 percent to 48 percent.

Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 7 points, 52 percent to 45 percent.

Women propelled Romney’s move into first place in the poll — a majority of which was conducted before the Hofstra debate. Obama’s 11-point advantage a week ago among the crucially important group dwindled to 6 points. The Democratic incumbent still leads 51 to 45 percent with women, but Romney leads by 10 points among men.

Romney also doubled the size of his advantage over Obama on which candidate would better handle the economy. This week, 51 percent of respondents picked Romney and 45 percent chose Obama, compared to 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama a week ago. The former Massachusetts governor also leads by 4 points, 50 to 46 percent, on who would create more jobs.

A majority, 53 percent, disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, compared to 45 percent who approve. That 8-point spread was only 3 points a week ago.'

Romney goes from down 1 to up 2 points in GWU/Battleground Tracking poll.

Dem +4 sample.

BHO can't get above 47-48% in national polls, only got as high as 49% once in last 7 national polls.

Polls over 1000 LVs he has 45, 45, 47, 47, 49% and is down 2.4% on average.
Toss out Gallup and he is down 1.5% on average.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...el-josh-jordan

But look at some of the weights applied to the individual polls in Silver’s model. The most current Public Policy Polling survey, released Saturday, has Obama up only one point, 49–48. That poll is given a weighting under Silver’s model of .95201. The PPP poll taken last weekend had Obama up five, 51–46. This poll is a week older but has a weighting of 1.15569.

The NBC/Marist Ohio poll conducted twelve days ago has a higher weighting attached to it (1.31395) than eight of the nine polls taken since.

The poll from twelve days ago also, coincidentally enough, is Obama’s best recent poll in Ohio, because of a Democratic party-identification advantage of eleven points.
By contrast, the Rasmussen poll from eight days later, which has a larger sample size, more recent field dates, but has an even party-identification split between Democrats and Republicans, has a weighting of .88826, lower than any other poll taken in the last nine days."

Ohio goes from R+1 to D +11 in 2 years? Seems legit...




I predict the last 5-7 days before ED N8 moves his model much closer to reality, although still partisan. Just like he did with Gov. Walker.

naj, i admittedly don't read those long posts you post. i just have one question: are you saying romney's gonna win, or are you saying he has value (and lol'ing at the people who all were dropping their load at -400 and now claim that most of their exposure is below -200)?