took some famliy advice for this bet, also the old italian barber today told me 2-1, 3-1 to barca.

gg barca, best team ever imo

errrrrr...

Just a heads up, Peru will be playing Mexico in Copa America 07/08.

there might be value on Peru @ +150 due to hookers and blow obv:

http://www.fmfstateofmind.com/2011/6...tution-scandal

They already both played a match and this will have been incorporated into that price already.

Balotelli @ 28 to be top EPL scorer? Looks decent value given the Tevez situation. He had a good end to the season and has all the attributes to be a complete striker.

Tevez only 1.5ish to go atm and if he doesn't, your Balotelli bet is in a pretty bad spot. Would only be backing Dzeko/Balotelli at current prices if Tevez is definitely going - and if he does those prices will go quickly I'd imagine.

Balance: $100

Jaro v Turku PS - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6
UCD FC v Bray Wanderers - over 2.5 goals @ 4/5
Omiya Ardija v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 4/7
Ventforet Kofu v Shimizu S-Pulse - over 2.5 goals @ 11/10
Trelleborg v Kalmar - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6

5x $16.66 singles
1x $16.66 accumulator

Little potential heads up....

Check out the latest on Swiss club Neuchatel Xamax. Taken over by billionaires and chasing some good signings. In a weak league, they have a great shout.

12-20-ish/1 now in most places that have the market, crashed in from 100/1

Some places still have it at 100/1.....Redkings/ Tower did earlier, just thought I'd let you know. It may have gone down to small odds now but thought i'd give the heads up.

It doesn't show up on oddschecker

for those who are looking for soccer data to analyse heres one that i look at

http://en.7m.cn/default_en.aspx?view=simplify&line=no
www.7m.cn

go to livescore and lots of data over there to help u improve your edge...

Balance: $100

Jaro v Turku PS - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - LOSE
UCD FC v Bray Wanderers - over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 - WIN
Omiya Ardija v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 4/7 - WIN
Ventforet Kofu v Shimizu S-Pulse - over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 - WIN
Trelleborg v Kalmar - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - WIN

5x $16.66 singles
1x $16.66 accumulator









Balance: $118.78

That seems like a horrible bet to me given tevez isn't a lock to leave and even if he does I don't think Mario has the right attitude to be a consistant goalscorer

Somebody please explain this.

Pre copa america Argentina to win opens at +140~ and gets bet down to +100.

Argentina play like **** in their first 2 matches and then win 3-0 to qualify.

They are now in the Quarter finals and are at +140~.

How can the market adjust this much for a 3 game sample? Before somebody claims inefficient market 1.3mm has been traded on this on betfair.

Because short term form for international teams is more of the data than for club teams?

I would agree that data for Messi - Argentina would be better than data Messi Barcelona.

I would still personally take 40+ games for all of the Argentine players from club football over 3 international games though wouldnt you?

3 games basically tells you nothing right?

But form is huge in tournaments and people have now had a chance to see how Argentina are performing rather than how Argentina's players have performed for their respective clubs. Also, Argentina are playing Uruguay in the Quarters, which is pretty much the toughest team they could've faced (bar Brazil in an unlikely scenario).

Argentina qualifying for the Quarter Finals shouldn't move their price in much at all...you're overestimating the probability of them not qualifying I think. Pre tournament they were something like 1.01/1.02 to qualify given their group was Bolivia, Costa Rica and Colombia. Therefore it's unsurprising that them actually qualifying has had little downward effect on their price. It seems to basically be the market moving Argentina's supremacy down significantly (as they probably should) and them qualifying having little effect on the underlying price.

Three games tells you loads in this case if you're willing to look for it.

The pre-copa price reflected a squad filled to the brim with ******ed attacking talent - tevez, messi, lavezzi blabla and a new coach that wasn't Maradona. those three games showed that Argentina had little synergy in attack. Attackers overlapped into each others space and stuff like that. The coach tried to copy a formula that wasn't suited to the team - Barcelonas formula. It just didn't work, because they lack the incredible pressing game of Barca among other things. It wasn't a case of near-misses or players temporarily out of form.

You can't objectively quantify these things. You just have to "get" football to apply it. For some things, three games is enough.

Balance: $118.78

Ventforet Kofu v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 40/85
Kawasaki Frontale v Kashiwa Reysol - over 2.5 goals @ 8/15
Molde v Haugesund - over 2.5 goals @ 1/2

3x $29.69 singles
1x $29.69 treble

Ventforet Kofu v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 40/85 - WIN
Kawasaki Frontale v Kashiwa Reysol - over 2.5 goals @ 8/15 - WIN
Molde v Haugesund - over 2.5 goals @ 1/2 - WIN

3x $29.69 singles
1x $29.69 treble









Balance: $234.13

Balance: $234.13


Sarpsborg v Stromsgodset - over 2.5 goals @ 8/13
Gamba Osaka v Jubilo Iwata - over 2.5 goals @ 2/5


$117.06 double

Sarpsborg v Stromsgodset - over 2.5 goals @ 8/13 - POSTPONED
Gamba Osaka v Jubilo Iwata - over 2.5 goals @ 2/5 - WIN


$117.06 double









Balance: $280.95

peru v venezuela (1-0)

degen 1u bet @ 1.55

Balance: $280.95


Jubilo Iwata v Gamba Oaska - over 2.5 goals @ 4/9


$140.47

Jubilo Iwata v Gamba Oaska - over 2.5 goals @ 4/9 - WIN









Balance $343.38

dinamo zagreb is best bet tomorow