Yeh I was looking at this the other day, Padova vs Ancona I think but not sure.

Whats going on then? Fixed? Odds backed in on the day?

Here's a 5 year old blog post that might explain this a bit: http://ubet2win.blogspot.com/2006/03/quick-on-draw.html

I'd be interested in some insight as well if you don't mind.

does schalke or inter know what defense is jesus christ

Schalke don't need no defense, they got Manu Neuer yo

Would be interested to hear more on this...

Anyone have a clue what is going on in Serie B today? I thought Piacenza was going to be rigged but im not sure anymore.

Ascoli were even money favourites then it got bet down to -220~ and now is coming back up, so weird. Also the Atalanta game on Monday looks like a lock.

Edit : Think im gonna go awl in on Ascoli

Thoughts on the CL final?

I think the number of games played this season is an interesting stat:

Valdes (43)
Alves (52)
Pique (50)
Puyol (27)
Xavi (49)
Villa (49)
Messi (54)
Mascherano (43)
Kelta (55)
Busquets (44)
Rodriguez (51)

VDS (44)
Fabio (24)
Vidic (45)
Ferdinand (27)
Evra (46)
Giggs (37)
Fletcher (36)
Carrick (43)
Valencia (19)
Park (26)
Rooney (38)

On average Barcelona players have played ~10 games more and I think it's fair to say that they have looked a bit tired recently and far from their best whereas United seem to peak just in the right moment. Guardiola basically played his B team in the last couple of games. Ferguson did that in 2009 and now views that as a mistake because players can get a bit rusty after longer breaks. He will even field some regulars in Gary Neville's testimonial tonight. I feel that fitness/freshness might be a big advantage for United that is underrated.

Arsene Wenger has a similar opinion: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/foo...gue-final.html

This is far from a thorough analysis and no more than a starting point but I gotta say the 2.75 for United to lift the trophy looks tempting.

Also 2009 the line was 0/0. Now its -0.5/+0.5 in Barca's favour. Quite a dramatic shift.

2009 was 2 years ago what do you expect?

I think these clubs met in 1956 too, what was the line then?

Also what is Fergie's record against left handed managers at neutral grounds in the UK?

Jeez how about about you ignore that one sentence I added and has nothing to do with the rest of the post.

The 2009 game is still relevant though and I just don't see why the Asian line has changed so much.

iits a good post ignore the haters very interesting too i hope united win it

No it is not a good post. It's funny how society has produced the word haters to anyone who thinks that your opinion is worthless/stupid. Perhaps you should listen to people who know more than you instead of just referring to them as haters.

Maybe we should just bet on what Arsene Wenger thinks or maybe follow what Mascherano said today which was "there are no favourites in finals". So obv just unload on Man Utd as they are listed as the underdog.

In b4 gazo comes back and claims Man Utd are 1 goal favourites.

How about you just contribute something useful then for once?

Telling me why it's a bad post would be a good place to start. I pointed out something which I think is underrated by the market. Whether accurate or not - that alone makes it more substantial than anything you usually post.

Ok the people betting 50k on this must be wrong and your analysis must be right, especially as it was backed up by that mouth breather.

Exactly the type of response I was expecting. Always the ridicule, always the desperate attempt to be funny. It's quite pathetic actually.

You cannot beat sports betting. I don't care if you think im pathetic, you're a huge troll.

What do you think the supremacy should be and why do you think it should be so? How much do you think the market is underestimating games played and how much should that move supremacy?

I am not convinced events of August affect player's fitness now. Don't the Spanish league have a Christmas break? What are games played numbers since then? How many of the united players missed games through injury?

It sounds like someone thinks they noticed something (Barca players looking tired when they could just have been saving themselves) and dug up stats that support their argument.

I probably shouldn't have trolled you though, I've been reading a lot of baseball "analysis" recently that pisses me off with more extreme versions of what you did.

I have to agree w this.

I played some soccer in S. America as a reserve and we practiced 6 days a week most weeks (3-4 hours each day). Games on Sundays with often a practice/exhibitiion game in between (Wednesdays usually).

I'm going to have to side with the 'saving themselves' argument considering these are superior athletes that happen to play for the best team in the world and have had La Liga practically locked for a while.

*I would also like to take this opportunity to respectfully bring to the moderators attention how important it is to let these kind of ... trollish discussions flow. You see; I was sure Oreos' posts were going to be deleted due to his tone (you must understand him; he comes from a rough place) and thus was not going to post anything. Got back from work and his posts (rude yes; but if you can read between the lines.. informative) and was happy to still see them still here.

SB, like Oreos neighbourhood, is a rough place. It always has and it always will be.

Thank you.

Anyone can beat sports betting by betting rogue lines at slow books. If you're referring to handicapping then you're right. I don't beat it because I don't do it (regularly) and it is not something I want to or am able to do.

However the CL final is a big enough game to do some reading and I posted something I found interesting. Now what? Again, this is more then what's coming from you.

Btw: This guy beats basically any league by handicapping (including EPL and CL). And believe it or not his write-ups read similar to what I'm doing right now. He even had a bet on last year's final btw so spare me the crap about market efficiency. Looking at the Asian lines from the last two finals you could make a decent argument that the market was not correct. I think ManU @ 2.75 is value. That is my opinion. I could be wrong. Who cares?

And you calling someone a troll is really something else. You don't even try to contribute anything. Why on earth are you even on this forum?


I already mentioned the Asian lines 09 and now. United have lost Ronaldo but added Valencia and Hernandez who have been fantastic for them. Barca replaced Eto'o with Villa. Villa is not on the same level as Eto'o in my opinion and also in terrible form. Other than that the teams are basically the same as two years ago. So both might be a little weaker in personell but are arguably a bit stronger as teams. Either way it's probably neglectable.

Wenger made an interesting point when he said that we know how Barca will play but not how United will play. Barca often look devoid of a Plan B (other than cheat even more and get an opposition player sent off). United have the superior manager and you can be sure the 09 final has been in Ferguson's head ever since (in fact he more than once said so) and that he has been preparing for a future encounter. Like Mourinho had after the 0-5 desaster.

United are very familiar with the surrounding in Wembley and the pitch whereas Barca not. I already mentioned the fitness stuff and the difference in form at the moment.
So there are a couple of things in United's favour. Still they get a .5 goal head start. I assume this has mainly to do with the 09 final itself which Barca dominated (although United played brilliantly until Eto'o scored). And fair enough United really shouldn't be favourites (they were in 09). So if we take all the things I've just said into consideration and look at the markets in Asia my conclusion would be that the final 09 might be overrated and the other things I listed are a little underrated.

I think 0.25 might be a fair supremacy.

Yes. Unfortunately that's all you get from someone who cannot beat sports betting.

While I get your upset, TFG has given you some good constructive critisism there. Dont you think?

I d say that Man u being in a higher % of competitive games in threre league negates them playing a few less,If that matters at all.

Thanks for linking the sports blog,the guy makes insightfull posts.GL

As much as I have drunk the Wenger koolaid, the man isn't the most unbiased analyst when it comes to Barca. They play his game better than his team does, they regularly try to steal his captain, and won thanks partially to dubious refereeing this year.

Barca beat Arsenal, Arsenal beat Man Utd, therefore Barca will beat Man Utd. That's high quality MMA math applied to football

There's a saying in military histories that generals are always preparing to fight the last war, I'm tempted to suggest that's what Fergie is doing.

I think the CL final (especially between two massive public teams) is going to be a little harder to beat than a Ligue 2 match (the guy you link's most recent writeup). Bookies have spent a lot more time getting their lines right for this one.

It's funny you talk about my tone when you both cry so badly. It really must suck putting so much work into your write ups and being no closer than somebody who just opens up a lineshopping website.

It's so nice you can tell where I come from due to the tone of my posts, using the same theory I will suggest you're a 15 year old girl who is on her period.

You have written it in your location genius.

+ I was agreeing w you.

God some people just want to fight behind the safety of their monitors (rolls eyes)

Can we go back to talking soccer?