(5.5 - 2.5 - 2, +3.7u ytd)
Here's a fun one. Unless someone can point out a math/tiebreaker error below, I'm taking:
Borussia Monchengladbach to win Group B +175, 1u to win 1.75u
This won't grade until next Wednesday, but I strongly suspect the +175 on BOL will not last the week and will hone in closer to +150. Anchoring with Pinny's moneylines the fair price should be +140 and as far as I can see, other sites have this priced at +150. I already have some at +225 from last week or I would probably wager more.
Pinny vig-free odds while posting:
Real Madrid 0.556435354 to win outright (-138)
Gladbach 0.182790357925493 to win outright (+425)
Draw 0.260774288 (+268)
Inter 0.729578741 to win outright (-313)
Shakhtar 0.103290879 to win outright (+832)
Draw 0.16713038 (+476)
The two games are played simultaneously and I think it's reasonable to assume they're independent events. I don't think there are any in-play outcomes during Inter/Shakhtar that can truly influence the Real/Gladbach game in a way that costs us money. If Shakhtar is blasting Inter early, then Real Madrid must win outright. However, they've got plenty of incentives to win outright already as it's the only way they can actually win the group.
That gives us the following results:
Gladbach wins the group every time they win the game outright, but also every time they draw and Shakhtar does not win their game.
Real Madrid wins the group every time they win and Shakhtar does not win their game.
Shakhtar wins the group when they and Real Madrid both win.
Inter cannot win the group.
That converts to:
To Win Group B
Real Madrid +100
Borussia Monchengladbach +140
Shakhtar Donetsk +1085
Or to look at it another way:
Gladbach +0.5 on Pinny is +119. We're instead getting +175 on that, except that on a draw we lose the wager 10% of the time (~2.9% overall).
And since the work is already done, here is the same for:
To Advance Group B
Real Madrid -295
Borussia Monchengladbach -116
Shakhtar Donetsk +464
Inter Milan -117
If you can't get +175 now, it might be worth waiting for a few days to see how the moneyline changes between now and Wednesday. I can't imagine a team as public as Real Madrid will have an obviously +EV moneyline hanging around all week long, so even if the line does move toward them I don't know how much I'd reevaluate. But if it steams
hard toward Real at some point it might scare me off the worse price. If nothing changes I'd surely bet this down to +150.