Originally Posted by GOWIAH
I agree with the BATE pick, a little more background info....
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE:
FC BATE BORISOV- HAPOEL KIRYAT SHMONA
We have been involved in BATE's last two away legs in the competition, favouring Vardar with the handicap start ( 0-0) at a time when the Belarus champions were in poor form and missing several key players , but backing them in Hungary ( W2-0) against Debreceni, when they were showing better form and had not only made two big name signings , but had their trio of promising youngsters back from the Olympics. Key points reproduced below....
Written August 7th
We do have a couple of Champions League fixtures and one involves BATE, whom we discussed recently ahead of their 0-0 draw with FK Vardar ( see below) and especially how poor they were suddenly playing domestically, home side Debreceni who made the group stage in 2009-10 were of some interest after drawing 1-1 in Borisov. But after watching the highlights, I am not so sure, offensively BATE looked significantly better and since the match in Skopje have signed Belarusian internationals Aleksandr Hleb and Raman Vasilyuk. Both played some part in the first leg, around 90 minutes between the hugely experienced pair and now the players who have been in London, will also return. So we can expect a big improvement in BATE in the next couple of weeks. Given that the hosts would snatch your arm off for 0-0, I can see some value in the away side at level ball at odds against. BATE level ball 2.11 asian line.
Written July 25th
From a betting perspective, tonight's matches hold little interest, I understand that BATE are going through a tough time at present, they needed two injury time goals to turn the first leg around and take an advantage of any sort to Macedonia for the return leg with FK Vardar in Skopje. The visitors are far more experienced at this level and have twice made it through to the group stage, last season and in 2008-09, when they were a pretty good team. They have certainly regressed a little since then and by their normal standards are in freefall ! They lead their domestic league by three points with a game in hand, but their lead is normally double figures and they have collected just two points from their last three league starts. They will sorely miss midfielders Renan Bressan ( 15 starts-4 goals- 3 assists) and Dmitri Baga ( 15-5-4), plus defender Denis Polyakov ( 13 starts), all of whom are in action at the Olympics and word is that Vardar and their supporters are really up for this one. The match is a 33,000 sell out, the atmosphere will be white hot and odds look on the skinny side for the visitors, who do not need to win, but I know very little about the home side ( I did try to get hold of some highlights) , so will have to pass. However, if this is a match you are interested in Bate do have their own YouTube channel and you can see a lot of highlights of recent games on there and yes, they are struggling atm !
Those two matches worked out perfectly, for us, as well as BATE, they both came on the back of very disappointing showings in the first leg on home soil and they will not want to do things the hard way a third time. Israeli clubs are traditionally strong at home and Hapoel have won both CL matches in Shmona in seemingly impressive style, beating Zilina of Slovakia 2-0 and Neftchi of Azerbaijan 4-0. The visitors do not have much european experience, just one UEFA cup appearance in 2008-09 when they lost in the second qualifying round, they have spent most of the last decade yo-yoing between the top two divisions, before claiming a shock championship win last season, securing the title with five rounds to spare. The long trip to Minsk, where BATE play their bigger games is not only a trip into the unknown for Hapoel, but a definite step up in class and they have to play without striker David Solari and holding midfielder Bryan Gerzicich, along with Macedonian international midfielder Darko Tasevski, Gerzicich is probably their key player and amongst the first names on the team sheet and Hapoel have no real, or at least experienced, natural replacement.
They rode their luck against Zilina in the first leg, where they lost 1-0, the hosts missed a penalty and the Hapoel goalkeeper was in inspired form, they deservedly turned the second leg around, but both goals came late and from terrible defensive errors from the same player. They also benefitted from some very sloppy defending in their demolition of Neftchi, after holdng out for 40 minutes the Azerbaijan champions went to pieces over the next thirty and the tie was lost.
It is very difficult to see the hugely experienced BATE team making similar errors and defensively they look solid, conceding just once ( to Debreceni and against the run of play) in five starts, they always see the move to the much bigger Dynama Stadium as giving them a "lift" and they arrive with a fully fit squad ,apart from midfielder Dmitri Baga, but the addition of Alexandr Hleb more than makes up for that and the club showed further ambition this last week by resigning another former star in Mikhail Sivakou, part of the team which reached the 2008 Champions League Group Stage and who first put BATE on the bigger European stage. He played 80 minutes in the weekend 0-0 draw with Gomel, Hleb just over an hour, Radzionau likewise and others including Bressan ( who had a goal and assist in the previous outing, a 4-0 win at Naftan.... it should have been six or seven btw) were not used at all, there is now huge competition for places and they are fully focused on reaching the group stage for the third time in seven years. Their midfield looks silky smooth, with huge levels of experience and talent and the loss of Gerzicich will be sorely felt by the visitors in this key area. 1.75 units BATE -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line..... preview written five hours ago, current quote is 1.90 and still acceptable IMO.
Good Luck.
