Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting
07-15-2022
, 05:55 PM
once again lost 2 units on phil, to be clear, i never liked him to win them but it seeed like a good number betting him at +180 and such vs fairly mediocre golfers
was thinking market being down on him could be public betting against him since he's public enemy #1 now but maybe he just does suck that much - genuinely considered putting him in the low sample grouping since not much recent data but thought that'd be too nitty since there's still loads of fairly recent data on him to use
anyway, went 6-4-1 +1.28u in round 2
so that's nice and then the fade monster low sample machine keeps spitting out losers too
5-10-1 -5.82u
to give an idea of the h2hs i put in the low sample bracket
for comparison these are the actual ones which count officially, these are the ones i post in the vig free betting as well as a few others which don't have any EV normally but if you removed vig would theoretically be good bets
i only count stuff that has 5% EV, if it's over 10% i put an "l" in a column and if over 15% i put an xl - for now everything is in flat units but at some point i'm going to review all the data and see if there's a bigger edge in the ones i thought i had a bigger edge in or not and if so adjust accordingly and start with kelly approach
so if i don't have much relevant data on at least one golfer in a matchup i put it in a separate account - i do this before they take place so i don't feel bias to selectively move winners into the real bracket and losers into the low sample one after the fact
whether or not someone goes into the low sample thing is fairly subjective though, ie I was a little on the fence about MacIntyre and definitely had him in the low sample grouping earlier in the year but felt like I've seen him enough where he should have enough data to qualify - ideally i should identify and tag the official low sample guys when pulling the data for the week so there isn't a subjective judgement call when pinny finally publishes the matchups but for now it's mostly pretty simple - i think a lot of it is with LIV there's just so many more new golfers than usual but in a few months guys like hojgaard, detry, migliozzi, the kims, the wus, the lees, etc will have showed up enough in pga shot link events that i can start counting them officially - and hopefully by then it's a spitting out winners instead
pretty insane that if i just faded all the plays my model likes with fairly low sample golfers i'd have gone 153-86-13 instead of the opposite and losing 84 sklanksy units
was explaining to my cousin what i do with golf and mentioned that i was considering implementing kelly criteria and he immediately said "r kelly is a sports bettor"
one can only dream can't they?
was thinking market being down on him could be public betting against him since he's public enemy #1 now but maybe he just does suck that much - genuinely considered putting him in the low sample grouping since not much recent data but thought that'd be too nitty since there's still loads of fairly recent data on him to use
anyway, went 6-4-1 +1.28u in round 2
so that's nice and then the fade monster low sample machine keeps spitting out losers too
5-10-1 -5.82u
to give an idea of the h2hs i put in the low sample bracket
for comparison these are the actual ones which count officially, these are the ones i post in the vig free betting as well as a few others which don't have any EV normally but if you removed vig would theoretically be good bets
i only count stuff that has 5% EV, if it's over 10% i put an "l" in a column and if over 15% i put an xl - for now everything is in flat units but at some point i'm going to review all the data and see if there's a bigger edge in the ones i thought i had a bigger edge in or not and if so adjust accordingly and start with kelly approach
so if i don't have much relevant data on at least one golfer in a matchup i put it in a separate account - i do this before they take place so i don't feel bias to selectively move winners into the real bracket and losers into the low sample one after the fact
whether or not someone goes into the low sample thing is fairly subjective though, ie I was a little on the fence about MacIntyre and definitely had him in the low sample grouping earlier in the year but felt like I've seen him enough where he should have enough data to qualify - ideally i should identify and tag the official low sample guys when pulling the data for the week so there isn't a subjective judgement call when pinny finally publishes the matchups but for now it's mostly pretty simple - i think a lot of it is with LIV there's just so many more new golfers than usual but in a few months guys like hojgaard, detry, migliozzi, the kims, the wus, the lees, etc will have showed up enough in pga shot link events that i can start counting them officially - and hopefully by then it's a spitting out winners instead
pretty insane that if i just faded all the plays my model likes with fairly low sample golfers i'd have gone 153-86-13 instead of the opposite and losing 84 sklanksy units
was explaining to my cousin what i do with golf and mentioned that i was considering implementing kelly criteria and he immediately said "r kelly is a sports bettor"
one can only dream can't they?
07-21-2022
, 04:08 PM
fwiw i had sungjae as one of the best golfers in the event so it wasn't a total fade, just that the market viewed him in the same tier as mats/finau whereas i had a clear gap between them and the next best group of golfers - will probably need to get used to this as the new normal of comparing finau to matsuyama for top golfer each event with the LIV dilution
also, gotterup has an lol sample size so not wagering on his h2hs but after reviewing his pedigree decided to trust the model and run in the cash line
i could be mistaken, but someone booked a h2h above 109 for the first time ever in pga, he is a rec but has a pretty good lineup imo in the sense that we only have 2 pivots so pretty much my mats + long vs his tringale and svensson
can check it out live here
https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...0455/172011371
off to see one of my favorite bands, the national, but need something more upbeat and inspirational to get out of this hole we put ourselves in with the Im fade