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Old 05-21-2020, 10:40 AM   #4801
NajdorfDefense
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
MYL up 2% today lets get the slow grind
SNCA and SURF up 70-90% this morning, let's get that biotech frenzy moolah.
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Old 05-21-2020, 11:48 AM   #4802
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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SNCA and SURF up 70-90% this morning, let's get that biotech frenzy moolah.
i checked, one seems grounded in reality from finally turning a profit, the other have no idea

you like these as shorts?
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Old 05-21-2020, 09:27 PM   #4803
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I have some RSIF analysis here for potentially improving DNRS's approach. Since pitchers bat in NL, full game totals for NL look around half run less on average compared to AL.



However, I parsed all of MLB play by play and pitchers almost never bat in the first inning.



So NL full game totals are deflated for reasons that don't affect the 1st inning. How do we adjust the table (tm) for this? I tried the following approaches.

1) For NL games, add 0.5 runs to the total. Bulid a new league-adjusted table (tm).

2) Use two separate tables for AL and NL.

3) Use two tables, but if a particular total has too few samples revert to using the original table (tm)

I tried all three approaches. To compare them I use mean logloss.



This is for data since 2011, only using data up to the particular game date. For logloss computation I start from 2014 onward so that I start with at least 3 seasons of data in the table.

It looks like the third approach is the best. Interestingly adding 0.5 a run slightly outperforms the two table approach. The change in logloss seems fairly small though, maybe I'm being fooled by randomness. Any thoughts, critiques, suggestions?

Last edited by DicedPineapples; 05-21-2020 at 09:29 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old 05-22-2020, 12:06 AM   #4804
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

DP that's really interesting

Only issue I can think of is the DH is often a better than average hitter.

Not sure what a good way to test that would be. Maybe compare both leagues by first inning perhaps?

Either way really interesting stuff and someone I've often thought about just for baseball purposes but never delved into.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:22 AM   #4805
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

hey guys, you can $500-600 limit on S&P 500 trading above 2945 at end of trading (4pm) on 5/26 at -103 right now

S&P 500 currently at 2948

obviously a bad bet if you think the market is going to drop but for perspective the under is -126

similar with DJIA, these are pretty good odds

I'm very bearish on the market in general but the AZN vaccine news should at least prop things up through monday imo
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:59 AM   #4806
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Are pitchers going to suck more in the first inning this year compared to normal?
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:05 AM   #4807
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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hey guys, you can $500-600 limit on S&P 500 trading above 2945 at end of trading (4pm) on 5/26 at -103 right now

S&P 500 currently at 2948

obviously a bad bet if you think the market is going to drop but for perspective the under is -126
As of now those are 37 delta calls. Or +166 odds for over.

Regardless, guessing where you think it will be is a terrible idea when there are professionals trading $billions in S+P futures, options, and options on futures that can give you a much more accurate idea.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:36 AM   #4808
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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As of now those are 37 delta calls. Or +166 odds for over.

Regardless, guessing where you think it will be is a terrible idea when there are professionals trading $billions in S+P futures, options, and options on futures that can give you a much more accurate idea.
i get that, i advocated earlier it was better to probably do market directly but people had mentioned it a few months back so been casually observing it and this is the first time the odds were even remotely ok imo

ie the under has a -55 delta right now (and a 44 for the call & at time of posting market hadn't yet dumped down a bit

just first time in the times i've casually looked was the one where the "dog" on the sports betting markets was the more likely one on the options market
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Old 05-22-2020, 12:07 PM   #4809
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Are pitchers going to suck more in the first inning this year compared to normal?
Looks like NL will be using DH this year, if the season isnít canceled. https://www.si.com/mlb/video/2020/05...lb-2020-season
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Old 05-22-2020, 01:46 PM   #4810
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I wasn't talking about pitchers hitting in 1stI, to be perfectly clear.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:10 PM   #4811
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

i remember looking at the differences between AL/NL a couple years ago and didn't see much, but i can recheck

was working today on writing up how to parse PDF files so we can get nascar data.

Almost all of the raw nascar data appears in PDF files like this http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/LD1...T_POSTBOOK.pdf

And the problem is other sites who display it have it in weird ways or omit data, etc. So we are going to use tabula-py to parse them all and create some databases! It's great too because every page has their own issues we need to fix
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:00 PM   #4812
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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i get that, i advocated earlier it was better to probably do market directly but people had mentioned it a few months back so been casually observing it and this is the first time the odds were even remotely ok imo

ie the under has a -55 delta right now (and a 44 for the call & at time of posting market hadn't yet dumped down a bit

just first time in the times i've casually looked was the one where the "dog" on the sports betting markets was the more likely one on the options market
If you understand the market why would you 'hey guys 600 limits'?
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:19 PM   #4813
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

For the two people interested in Nascar database - have you given up because all the data is in PDF files and a pain to get? Don't worry we solved it

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/NascarDatabase.html
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:57 PM   #4814
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Nice! Where are these PDFs posted? Can't find them anywhere on Nascar's site.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:21 PM   #4815
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Found the data on a 3rd party site site, but doesn't go beyond 2019.
https://tobychristie.com/loop-data-2...ar-cup-series/
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:23 PM   #4816
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

They're only given to "Nascar Media", so you can pretend to be them and register at nascarmedia.com

hit or miss if you get accepted or people post them on twitter / website.

Toby Christie is one. Jayski posts a lot but never posts the full loop data. Bob Pockrass on twitter usually posts screenshots, so they're a pain to get.

There used to be a way to scrape them since the files followed a similar structure, but then Nascar put the entire site behind a password.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:51 PM   #4817
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I emailed Toby. He replied really quick, said he's planning on posting a full backlog in the upcoming weeks.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:57 PM   #4818
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

damn baller

i got them all in a database already but would be good to have an archive just in case. I think it goes back to 2005, at least thats all i have

i tried to register for nascar media again as a crowdsource syndicate rep. maybe we will get approved this time
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:06 AM   #4819
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Here's a link to a media rep for NASCAR twitter page. Listen, we're going need you to take one for the team here and slip into those DMs.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:42 AM   #4820
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

DicedPineapples has to be the best story of the syndicate in 2020. Guy is a genius, comes out of nowhere and wants nothing more than to get things done. NASCAR is the most fun I've had watching a sporting event in a long time.
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:58 AM   #4821
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Haha thanks but I'm DefNotGenius.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:11 AM   #4822
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

I added two more tables and info.

One is a list of all the races since 2005 with some info about location, track, winner, etc.

I didn't use any script to parse it. Instead I hired Rajiv off of Fiverr for $20. He did a great job so I kicked him a little extra. Every year when I need to update the schedule I message him and kick him another $20. We have developed a long term relationship.

For the tracks I included a little write up about the types of tracks and reasoning behind the columns in the tables. The idea is people and manufacturers tend to perform better on certain tracks, so when we do our analysis we should group similar tracks together. That's how we, and 40% of other people found value in Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson last week.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 05-23-2020 at 01:17 AM.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:43 AM   #4823
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

Who we got in the Peyton/woods vs Brady/mickelson match?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Old 05-23-2020, 02:03 AM   #4824
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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If you understand the market why would you 'hey guys 600 limits'?
Dude, the delta for the other side was worse, if these were independent outcomes then I can get the hate but at the time I posted the options markets resoundingly preferred the -103 vs the -126 side

Normally they are -115 or worse and are fairly even. I know a bunch of people here are betting those so figured I'd pass along today's anomaly
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Old 05-23-2020, 02:54 AM   #4825
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Re: Crowdsource Syndicate Sports Betting

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Who we got in the Peyton/woods vs Brady/mickelson match?


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I got Brady/Mickelson at +161 on pure assumption that tiger was moving the market & even with Mickelson playing horribly pre Covid tiger was not even playing so both rusty & Brady/Peyton are real wild cards

Seen line move a bit but I'm taking whatever side has + odds in that sans analysis
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