Case where Trump does not get good info and/or lack of forward thinking.

There must be 10+ potential candidates with better win equity than Vance.

the steamed ham condiment market is going bananas today

holding max positions on predictit for buttigieg no vp, hillary no nom, biden no resign

max pain incoming on biden and kamala both stepping down due to sex scandal tomorrow and hillary announces her candidacy with vp pete

I got a no Barack endorsement in hopes dnc nominates her in haste before Barack can toss out the endorsement.

It’s an election year HITS. Lot of stress all around and the stakes have never been higher hehe.

I prefer to grill mine but thanks for the tip. I’ll head to buy a pack of hot dogs now before things really get out of control.

166-1 does seem slightly too wide on either major candidate with months left but I don't know if anywhere offering markets would have assumed they're not allowed

Rickroll probably best we stay out of the politics forum. We’re gonna get banned eventually and there will be no hot dogs to discuss.

Kelly dog pumping again. Up to 37c
Next highest is Shapiro dog at 20c

Domer is a few thousand fraudulent votes away from a 9-5.

Lmfao I remember that. Good times. At least he took a hard stance I suppose. You kind of have to respect that.

steamed ham condiment time

so there's some reports that pritsker, whitmer, kelly, cooper, & shapiro were the first 5 to be asked for vetting materials, whitmer already said no

so i think those 4 minus whitmer are the big choices

she later added another half dozen people to ask for material but i think that's just to placate allies

beshear was a later vetting material guy but is like 9% so i'm fading him

considering grabbing some pritzker at 1% because i can see how they'd be so dumb as to get a fat ugly billionaire despite that shapiro/kelly/cooper would be a much better choice

however, trying to think about the optimal choice has lost me a bunch of monies already so what do i know, for now just fading people i think are overpriced

Vance pick turning into even more of a disaster leaked audio today saying there should be a federal response to women crossing state lines to get abortions

It's like the Republican party has forgotten that half of the voters are women, Trump is going to find a way to **** this up and lose isn't he lol

lots of movement today on the vps

Rick in the political betting thread like:

Looks like Shapiro's fav for VP now, makes sense to some degree since PA is a must win for the Dems to get to 270

Don't really have an opinion on the VP on D side, favs both make sense

is Walz at 21c a meme stock? MN seems irrelevant... if they lose there they're losing the election regardless

been thinking of getting a waltz fade but also worried about that steam being from people who are less stupid than me driving that on better info, which is everyone

he could galvanize cat people -- a voter base long overlooked -- and swing multiple battleground states i suppose.

on the hot dog front, i suspect harris is approaching nearterm max at 49% as honeymoon period fades. GOP is waiting for DNC finalization before they go full bore on attacks. harris needs a comfortable margin heading into november given trump's historical poll outperformance

While he has over performed in the past it's worth noting another 4 years of demographic change has happened, 8 years of dead boomers and silents and 8 years of new gen z voters vs 2016 and 4 years since 2020

Also the last time trump was on the ballot was pre Jan 6 and his various scandals since granted those will only affect his support with independents

Kamala performing far better than I expected as a candidate so far although it's very early

Sill be fascinating to see what happens in the debates and when both sides ramp up the attack ads

Trumps comment about vote this time and you won't need to vote again is going to be blasted on repeat I don't know if he meant you'll only have to vote for me this time since I'm term limited or I plan on never leaving office but it's certainly not a smart thing for Trump to say if he's trying to win any independent or hate both sides voters

Still too far out to have a real opinion on who's going to win in November but it really does feel like Trump will find a way to blow it even though I also think Harris will struggle as a candidate once the attack ads get going. There is a lot of new Trump material since the 2020 campaign too though but at the end of the day everyone's mind is made up on Trump it comes down to can Harris keep her numbers to only slightly negative approval rating if so she probably wins unless she becomes the 'worse' option in the eyes of independents the way Hillary managed to. Granted Trump was also more of an unknown then and everyone's mind is made up on him now both ways.

I also don't see how Walz is the VP 1 in 5 times when Minnesota doesn't matter, maybe they think he helps in Wisconsin as a neighbouring midwestern governor but Kelly helps AZ and Shapiro helps PA so it's not like he's a better option than either of them. I'd expect it to be Kelly or Shapiro still personally but don't have any particular expertise on which way it'll go

He meant hes term limited, obviously.

While you would normally assume that is the case it's not that unreasonable to assume he may mean something else after he tried to overturn the results of the election on Jan 6

My point isnt that my opinion matters it doesn't it's that it's not a smart thing for him to say win percentage wise and it will be featured in attack ads

If there even is debates.

It blows my mind that he keeps talking about 'hanky panky' and how 2020 was stolen/rigged etc. Like yeah sure his base will eat it up but they don't care what he does or says, surely he'd be looking at trying to win over some moderates/independents but no, he just doubles down on what really should be one of his weakest issues.

Harris and Democrats keep calling Trump and Vance ‘weird.’ Here’s why

We've finally come full circle as Howard Lederer's legendary attack line, "The guy's a freak and a very weird dude. He is also quite young. I think we should stay away" from poker circles from 17 years ago is now being mimicked to attack JD Vance and Republicans.

lol that was a legendary lederer line. what even happened to gobbo?