As the saying goes, "Old poker players never die--they just fade away."

someone buying Beshear shares

that guy is very much a rando though - his website has literally zero work, just some jabroni trying to make a name for himself hoping if it's beshear he gets instant cred

his website is so sad

that being said, i'm sure i'll lose piles on my beshear no now

I think Trump is a freak and a very weird dude I think we should stay away. He is also quite old.

Lol

Shapiro huge fav now market seems pretty sure. I get it, win PA and there are suddenly a lot of paths to 270 for the D side and with the popular PA gov on the ticket Ds would be solid favs in PA

Trump drift from -140 odd a couple days ago to -119 on Betfair as of a few minutes ago we are approaching the coinflip I said the race would be around the end of conventions

Too soon to know who will win but man is Trump bad at trying to expand his base beyond people who already like him lol his sympathy bounce is fading faster than I thought

I laid at 1.70 (-143) a while ago on the basis that it had to be higher at least some point before the election. Closed that out for a profit now, but had quite a ride on the way.

There’s not much he can do. He has a hard ceiling; a large percentage of the country wouldn’t even consider voting for him. He needed a sleepy election cycle and RFK to get a decent percentage of independents.

Kamala has a three month sprint and the media can hype her up in a way that will energize people to vote.

The Democrats doing everything they could to force Biden out tells you how much better their internal polling was for Kamala. Republicans are also doing a terrible job of controlling the narrative.

I have Kamala as a slight favorite.

Dems are evil geniuses at political strategy.

Shaps back down to 59c. ATH of 75c

Kelly/Beshear each at 17c

Trump really is gonna lose this election to the single weakest nominee I have ever seen in my life. We are fooked

If Trump loses, wouldn't that make him the weakest nominee?

Honestly Trump is probably the second worst nominee of our adult lives he is scandal prone and widely hated by over 50 percent of the electorate so can only won against an even more disliked candidate

He just ran against the worst nominee of our adult lives in Hillary in 2016

Rs need to go insane negative on Kamala and try and turn it onto a low turnout election. Trump will get less votes than he did against Biden as he can't add new voters and will lose a handful of principled Rs and some Is over the Jan 6th stuff and his various scandals since like with the classified docs, Carroll stuff, Epstein ties, etc

I actually am starting to think Kamala is back to small fav too although still too far out to know who will win but her campaigns going way better than I expected so far

Hey folks. I'm back after a 4-year hiatus to tell you it's going to be Shapiro for VP. Kamala's going to have her first rally with her VP in Philly. And Shapiro has abruptly cancelled some fundraising events next week. PredicitIt has him at 68 rn, proper price is closer to 90.

Browsing some other PredicitIt markets - the strongest argument against The Wisdom of The Crowd is that Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama are at 2 and 3% respectively to get the Dem nom.

Check more liquid market. They are both around 0.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/democra...=1722563863681

if this much can change in 2 weeks i can't imagine where we are in 3 months.

As I said a while ago closer to the election it will most likely be clear who is going to win if it isn't a margin of error close election but it's way too far out to know

Trump has obviously squandered the edge he got from the shooting attempt but it's way, way too soon to know who is going to win in November for sure

The DNC hasnt even happened and Harris hasn't even chosen a VP yet

Welcome back PTP, was wondering if you could make it. Always enjoyed your sharp insights.

I know. Its all so bizarre

FWIW voting starts mid-Sept in PA.

What is the reason PredictIt favors Dems so much more than Polymarket? I remember it being like this in 2020 as well.

Crypto people tend to be more right leaning is my guess.

Predictit also seems to be US only, whereas PM is everywhere but the US.

I'm not sure PM was very active back in 2020. It was just getting started. I can't remember that long ago. It certainly was nowhere near as popular.

if polymarket bets are paid in crypto and trump presidency results in BTC bump, probably makes sense to bet him there for a slightly correlated parlay vs. in USD on predictit

bloomberg had an interesting article on polymarket this week. makes the case that while they technically don't allow U.S. customers per their CFTC settlement, there are certain funding methods that are only available to U.S. players and it's trivial to sidestep the ban via VPN. that, along with photos of the 26yo CEO hobnobbing with trump and RNC players, probably creates some legal crackdown risk a la ftp/stars black friday if you hold significant balances there

It's paid in stablecoin. So there's no crypto volatility. Effectively it's betting in USD.

I'm not sure how their smart contracts work. It's possible, maybe even likely, that they have no control over the assets in your wallet. So a black Friday type government overreach wouldn't result in your funds being locked out. However, any bets you had placed in various markets could be subject to indefinite determination period and possibly locked up for a prolonged period of time.