Lez go Whitmer

What’s done is done. There’s no need to focus on losses. In the end we all have hot dogs to look forward to. Go get yourself one with all the condiments.

i've decide to recover about 7 units selling at 1c - feel like a cuck closing a 1c position but there's no way there's even a 1% chance he gets nom now

unless that is he forgets that he withdrew tomorrow and when informed changes his mind

Whitmer or beshear I think.

No endorsement on Kamala from Biden and it's at -400 on bovada, no thanks

I'll give you props on being way early on Biden not being the nominee, but I remember you making a few posts predicting (and betting on) Michelle Obama being the nominee & thinking there's no way- I've only ever seen her state that she's not interested.


He endorsed Kamala 17 minutes after you made this post.

spoke too soon, the standing order to buy biden at 1c either got filled or taken down, just left with my dick hanging out now

Yeah, the endorsement isn't a lock though, and I read something about Biden swapping down completely and being able to be swapped out through a legal process in September without a national vote

Kamala will get destroyed so I'm not so sure and I cashed out my poly position ~85c on her as that appears to be at least fair if not -ev

Buying all the Biden 1c on this theory, thanks

Still made money, and up a decent chunk regardless of who gets in - Michelle will poll the best against Trump I've monitored her socials and projects and the sentiment towards her is definitely positive and it fits into the DNC's DEI narrative perfectly

Should have known the moment Biden caught JOVID it was Joever.

That's political betting for ya. In hindsight everything is so obvious.

Government as the mafia theorem worked out. When Don Pelosi says it's time, it's time.

That said, I cannot take any credit for having any opinion because I never backed my opinion with money. As NajdorfDefense would always point out, unless you're actually in the arena backing your opinions with money at specific prices, it's all meaningless. Might as well be on a podcast or news show. Congrats to those who did and were proven right. And respect to those who were wrong but had the conviction to back it it up.

What a fun election season.

Well that is some crazy **** to start the cycle. Obviously I'll take the loss but could have give a lot worse for than losing a unit.

If Trump wins due to Harris being a horrible nominee the Democratic party did this to themselves

I just hope the Ds don't crown Harris without putting her through a hostile debate but obviously with Biden's endorsement she's a big fav even though she's the worst of the possible candidates

Anyone can beat Trump since he will say and do dumb things but anyone can lose to him too at this point

What a wild ride that market was

So what are the betting plays now for the elections? I see Trump to win presidency at -200 which seems like good value. Or maybe wait until the DNC when the Democtrats will presumably "unify" behind one candidate (highly likely to be Harris) and hope those Trump odds come down even more? I personally don't see a path to Harris winning...

i already bet hilldawg no nomination at 94 cents on predictit so we can now all be assured the DNC is going to announce tomorrow that they're letting her take another crack at it

The dawg endorsed Kamala so doubt she goes against her now

a retrospective

.

There is absolutely no reason to bet a major party candidate at -200 before the other party's candidate isn't even known. There's no way Trump isn't still available at -2xx worst case at some point post DNC when more info is known.

I agree Harris has a worse chance than any other D pretty much but a) she isn't the nominee yet and b) Trump is live to lose to anyone remember he nearly lost to Hillary Clinton if the popular vote distribution was just very very slightly different, he is a turnout machine for the D base

As a left leaning person myself i'd love to see the Ds nominate almost anyone that isn't Harris but I expect they probably fall in line and nominate Harris

I also think Harris has a worse chance to win than Biden personally but that no D is drawing dead against Trump despite him currently being slightly ahead it isn't an insurmountable lead in the polls this far out.

And yeah to everyone bragging, I thought I was right, turns out I got it wrong, and I lost a unit. I did think the spot was worthy of multiple units but only had a unit on. It's still early in the cycle. 0 for 1, and onto the next.

Who do people like for VP? I wanna get some action down.

Just bumping this from my first post ITT for anyone doing their victory lap since I was wrong about Biden not being the nominee as things played out.

Full disclosure don't actually have any Harris +5500, but did go on the record in my first post ITT that she's one of the three best long shot candidates for anyone who wanted one.

For what it's worth the way things have played out I actually think Michelle Obama at the 20-1 range is about accurate as she would be the 'draft' candidate if Harris is polling horrendously and all of the other potential candidates don't run and have fallen in line behind Harris, but her campaign craters before the convention. I did also say that she had no chance of running early in the cycle and still don't think she has any intention to but ironically her price hasn't changed that much from before Biden dropped out and even months ago which is ridiculous, but i'm not in the anti-Michelle camp anymore, think price is about right there now and if I had laid Michelle I would back to exit the position now (I didn't so I don't need to but whatever). Not looking to back it, but would look to exit a lay position I think at this stage if I had trusted the earlier lay reads. All of the other lays like RFK Jr etc are fine he's still 0% to win etc

FWIW I think Michelle O is live.

Not sure if 20:1 is value, sounds about right.

every time i look at this map i think the right move is whitmer



but will they do it is another question

Probably will be Kamala but I got Field at 15c for nominee. We'll see. Small position.

Whitmer would be $$$

switching to whitmer could easily carry MI and WI which would be enough to put dems back in contention

they won't because kamala is heir apparent and us politics is a contrived aristocracy where next in line gets their due even if theyre a terrible a candidate no one likes

believe michelle o would wipe the floor

Truth is stranger than fiction.

I would stick to the long shots here.

Stay out of the politics thread. I admit to troling a bit but holy chit we have some
idiots at 4