I'm curious what you would consider fair odds for Michelle if Kamala doesn't get the nomination for one reason or another.

If Kamala drops out (or is pushed out) what do you make the line on Michelle?

I would want to know the reason(s) why Kamala dropped out. If Barack was behind it then I'm guessing Michelle O would be close to fave. Depending on field (Whitmer, Newsom?) I'd put her +100-+150.

Ofc Michelle will be getting some media exposure, how that is covered/received has a lot to do with her odds.

I don't know her implied odds atm assuming Kamala is out, I'm guessing around +200-+300.

In this hypothetical it's unknown.

+100? +150? +200? +300?

If you're going anti-Kamala, I personally prefer the field for 13c than Michelle at 6c

Yes, that's why I noted market implied. I'd go with that absent any add'l info.

I don't see any compelling reason for the market to be out of whack, for now at least.

So Kamala is 87c on Polymarket, Michelle is 6c so Michelle is about 6/13 or about +117. That seems give or take about right?

I saw 5c on Michelle. Forgetting about breakage/overround I'd put her fair around +160.

Alright. I propose this:

If Kamala Harris doesn't become the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 for any reason, you have +160 on Michelle Obama, I have the field -160.

If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee for President the bet has no action.

Any amount you want up to $80,000 risk on my side ($50,000 risk your side)

lmk

And exactly why would I take that with nothing going for me other than market implied?

I was perfectly clear with you when I answered your question. You said nothing about "hypotheticals" preventing me from learning why Kamala would have dropped out when in fact people would likely know, or have a better idea at least.

I knew exactly where you were going with this, trying to score points or make me look stupid because I did not take you up on your dumb prop.

Get a life.

qq

I'll give you +200 to account for "hypotheticals. "

My 100k to your 50k. Or my 2k to your 1k. Or any amount in between.

Willing to escrow with a reputable poster (preferablyTomG if he is willing for a small cut).

Serious offer.

Ok, let's walk this thru. I got Michelle O fair 20:1, which is about .0476. I got Kamala fair around 81%. 19/4.76 is 4 or 3:1.

If this were offered 4:1 or better at a reputable establishment I put a couple units on it.

I don't need to comment any further. My previous observations re you were proven out.

wouldn't it be a much better bet for you to just fade obama at polymarket?

getting obama at +200 and kamala is no bet, is a bet i would take

You mean wait and if Kamala drops out then hammer Michelle no at Polymarket? Possibly. quite probably in fact.

If PokerHero doesn't want it you can have it if you want. No need to escrow as I trust you and I hope the reverse is true.

Considering the implied risks I might escrow 6:1.

if/when harris drops out michelle will be either >50% or <2%

I tried explaining that to him. Crickets...

She didn't even meet Bibi, which is a pretty big deal. Isn't the VP supposed to step in if the president is incapacitated or unable to fulfill in-person duties? What's the perceived image of that with other leaders (besides the infamous money begger that continues to grift while making the rounds around every other country in the world)?

FWIW, I traded out of Kamala "yes" on both betfair and poly. Building lay bets atm while market is pricing her in over 90%. +EV to bet against this imo (as I just stated 1) she's ranked very unfavourable in polls 2) she didn't meet Bibi 3) She was destroyed in the last DNC primary 4) she's just an insufferable unlikeable clown)

OK. Sure.

And I'm saying I think it's <2% so much more often than it's >50% that taking -200 without having any additional information is +EV.

Of course if Kamala is pushed out by Obama then the odds should be lower than +200 and if she is removed for other reasons then the odds should be higher. I'm simply offering a wager based on current publicly available information using odds that he himself set. Not sure why that makes me an *******.

my wallet is empty, my balls are full, i am ready

Because you asked me this:
Which I replied in sincerity that it would depend on the events causing Kamala to drop out. why would I ignore that critical piece of information if she drops out?

Then you follow up with "hypotheticals" nonsense, when it became obvious to me where you were going.

You could have simply proposed your prop for everybody, but instead you picked me thinking I was some rube.

Again, get a life.

And your ignorant assertion:
After my reasonable estimate...
...was not good enough for you, you came back with this:
Was certainly full of sincerity.

thoughts on the condiments for the 2nd hotdog?


mark kelly is the ideal person imo and has skyrocketed up from obscure to the betting favorite this week on news that he is indeed the best choice being a former fighter pilot and astronaut he's exactly the kind of person who people who don't like kamala can get behind as he's a real man's man, even bald too for bonus points


so his intangibles are amazing


but being from arizona, his tangibles are limited bringing in a relatively unimportant swing state that dems will likely win anyway and borders california



the rust belt are what's going to decide this election

no positions yet, but it looks like the 2nd hotdog condiment market is the least settled and most inefficient right now so that's probably the best place for me to lose some more monies

no thoughts on hotdog 2, but kelly is 36% right now.