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lol reading these responses has blown my mind
How do people like swoop exist in this world? Why do you hate yourself so much? It wasn't your choice to be born white. It's ok to be white.
This just reminded me of the protest that happened in Australia where a load of white people protested against the refugee status of white South Africans. Which other group in the world would actively protest against helping their own people?
Black refugees are OK but white refugees are not. truly mind blowing
I have no idea what you're talking about I don't hate being white or anything else about myself, obviously white South Africans being displaced by violence should be considered for asylum status the same as anyone else fleeing violence etc you're equating holding progressive views in general (me) with being one of the socialist alliance university students who complain the greens are too far right etc.
Noting that it's pretty easy to be a straight white male in western society in general is just noting the obvious, yes, obviously there are areas where men are disadvantaged like family courts and lack of social services to support men compared to women, but saying it's clearly harder in general to be male than female in the west or harder to be white than an ethnic minority or harder to be straight than gay is just ******ed. Uhoh, my fringe leftist credentials I said ******ed.
I hold plenty of centrist/centre-right positions (on Irsael; Islam, etc) i'm just on the political left on more issues than the political right, especially by American standards because the Democrats are a fairly centre left party by global standards (I mean their last 2 presidents were Clinton and Obama who are hardly left wing ideologues) whereas the Republican party is a hard-right party basically everywhere else in the west and Trump is obviously a complete basket case even people on the political right everywhere else in the world know that. Right wing positions on a ton of issues are morally reprehensible (lol usa healthcare #1 and wheee lets go start some wars for the military industrial complex etc), but yeah, conservatives can be right about some things, occasionally. I mean, tariffs and economic protectionism are ****ing stupid, yet somehow the current Republican party has abandoned free trade which should be a major party of any conservative economic platform and one of the few things I think they're correct about when it comes to economic issues. Trump is a ****ing disaster and i'd happily vote for Tony Abbott (Australia's both worst and most right wing recent PM) over him in a heartbeat. Mitt Romney was right and Obama was wrong about Russia being a major geopolitical threat - conservatives can be right sometimes and i'm fine with saying that.
Anyway rant about personal politics aside...
Yes, Warren is very far left etc but even she is a favourite against Trump in a h2h matchup and yes when we get closer to the election you'll all have your chance to bet against me on that at market prices with escrows etc if she wins the nomination
Kamala was part killed by Tulsi (who herself is hated by the D base) but she also killed her own campaign by going overboard portraying Biden as a racist when anyone sane know he isn't. Democrats mostly like Joe Biden as a person, the party is just slightly to the left of him on too many issues and he's really bad at running for President. I don't know if it's possible for an ex prosecutor to win the Democratic nomination anymore moving forward, at least while the American police force/legal system remain the way they are now.
Buttigieg seems to be on the verge of capturing the moderate lane but unless Biden actually drops out I don't like +400 there's no path for Buttigieg to go all the way yet without Biden dropping out, Iowa is an all-white midwestern state and Buttigieg has all educated white support/moderates only, he needs Biden to drop out at the very latest after Iowa to have any shot at all (and he also needs both Warren and Sanders to stay in after New Hampshire and probably after Super Tuesday to split the leftist vote). I think he'll really struggle to appeal to black and hispanic voters and to the less-educated portion of the working class.
My gut says Buttigieg will trade higher than 20% where he is now on Predictit at some stage but that he won't get the nominee because he can't expand his constituency beyond white moderates who aren't in Biden's camp. He does seem to be on the verge of becoming the establishment candidate if Biden fails though but I would still take Warren at 25% over Buttigieg at 20% all day if we're looking at the top tier. Warren DEFINITELY wins the nomination at least a quarter of the time. Not typing up large chunks of my roll for months on it or anything but I think she's value again finally
Buttigieg will trade as high as 30+ a lot especially if he wins Iowa (he's drawing dead if he doesn't win Iowa), but I prefer taking Buttigieg to win Iowa over wins the nomination at a much worse price because there are a ton of scenarios where he wins Iowa but not the nomination and no scenarios where he doesn't win Iowa but wins the nomination - if Warren wins Iowa it's just over (she'll win NH then probably NV and then Sanders probably drops out to endorse her and it's just over). If Biden or Buttigieg win Iowa, then Warren or Sanders win NH, then super tuesday splits multiway then we're in for a long campaign season. To be honest if Buttigieg wins Iowa I think he's still well under 50% to win the nomination but if Warren or Biden does they're guaranteed to lock up their left or moderate lane and be one of the final two dems standing.
I think Warren still wins the nomination close to half the time, and Biden hangs on to the establishment lane often enough through winning SC that Buttigieg doesn't get the nomination. He needs Biden to drop out before Super Tuesday to have a chance, and even if his support fades it'll be hard for Biden not to stay in until SC at least then if he finishes first or second he'll be tempted to stay for Super Tuesday
If Bloomberg or Deval Patrick do end up running they'll siphon off 1-3% of the moderate vote each as well.
Yang's the only not top tier candidate with room to grow but I think he's running out of time he needs to be polling at more like 7-8% after this next debate or it's just too little too late - my gut is to fade him at 8% but he has upside, Bloomberg and Hillary are both 8% too and drawing dead so there's no reason to fade Yang at that price when there are two candidates with far less equity at the same price
Bloomberg, Hillary and Tulsi combine to 20% on predictit markets with like 1 percent combined equity which is pretty lol