This was actually my take on it for a long time. I refused to make any predictions because I related most to the Oracle at Delphi who told Socrates that he was the wisest man because he knew that he didn’t know.

But as I’ve thought about it I realize that that position is true but also a bit of a cop out. Making predictions (assuming that you care about getting it right) helps to shape your worldview. When you’re wrong you pay the consequences but it’s a lesson you won’t forget.

Brah you should stop posting

Obama had one of the worst tenures ever lol

He only got re elected because he was black and you somehow blame conservatives for it lol

Your points make sense but lol stop drinking so much koolaid

Whoa never mind we are a genius

BM rules didn't include America Samoa as a primary (and it didn't for Tulsi either making -2500 even more LOL). Bloomberg no primaries won just got graded as a win.

When good luck rains it pours guys.

Joe Biden is Democratic Nominee -650

lol

He had one of the worst tenures?
Lol

I'll stop posting, no problem.
If I want to get some hidden agenda across, which I don't, I'll go to society and politics.

But one last thing before I go. I never blamed conservatives for him not getting reelected. You have to improve your reading comprehension. Sorry, not trying to insult anyone. I blame the twenty second amendment.
Are you aware of what I'm talking about?

lol which of you has been drinking the koolaid?

It was the slowest recovery in American history and yes I blame that mainly on obama. He inherited an economy that was an accounting law change away from exploding (google when mark to marketing accounting was changed and when the bottom of the market was). I think he did a terrible job on the economy, but I would say bush also contributed to this to a far lesser extent after his speech on abandoning the free market principles.

I do agree that the economy runs itself for the most part and the president has less control than many people think. However, I strongly disagree with Bush and Obama’s ideas of raising taxes, throwing money at people to buy their first house/ a car or letting government try to spend their way out of a downturn. This is also why I don’t like Bernie - if distributing wealth actually created wealth we would see socialism succeed in other countries.

No need to stop posting, I think you’re an asset.

Thanks Cody.

I don't intend to start rambling nonsense that's of no use to anyone.
But I do just want to say one last thing about what Mickey wrote.
Mickey, you're too smart for me. I see your perspective has it's merits.
Although I think giving tax breaks to the rich is a form of socialism also, when you really think about it.
But I digress. The point I was trying to make was, not that the economy doesn't matter to voters, it's just not as big a deciding factor as the pundits make it out to be. Voters will use it as an excuse to justify their vote, but they're really voting across ideological lines. Unless, and I really want to stress this, unless the current president does really bad with it.

That's all I really wanted to say. I hope that doesn't sound like too much nonsense.

I have thought about it and giving tax breaks to the rich is not only very different than socialism I would argue it is the complete opposite of what socialism does.

That is an interesting point and after thinking about it for a few minutes I agree with. Most people have little idea how an economy is doing and what policies help or hurt an economy. When they are justifying a vote as doing so because of the economy they are just hearing things are going well or bad (mainly from people that have the same beliefs as them) and voting accordingly but they don't actually know what is going on.

Thanks for agreeing and..civily disagreeing.

Anyway, let's get to the point of why we're really here..to make the moneeezz!
I'm finally putting my money where my mouth is.
I'm a small time punter, I am not recommending anything to anyone.
But after seeing how well Biden did in Virginia, with so little money invested, I have to believe that Biden would win Virginia in a general election against President Trump.
And, looking at how he's slightly ahead in the polls in Michigan and Penselvania, I'm banking on Biden defeating Trump.

50 bucks for the win!

Hey, I can't have too much money tied up for such a long time

Biden will almost certainly win VA. Clinton won it handily.

Honestly, I don't understand why Trump is a favorite to win the general. In 2016 he barely won -- if 0.6% of his voters had gone to Clinton instead, she would have won in an electoral landslide. This time around you've got a better Democratic candidate. You've had 4 years of Boomers/Silent Generation voters being replaced by Gen Z. You've got felons voting in Florida, which is a hugely unappreciated factor. You won't have James Comey announcing immediately before the election that he's reopening the probe into Hillary's emails.

If the 2016 election were held in 2020, and the same groups voted the same ways in the same proportions, Clinton would have won. (source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/demogra...gy-11578047402)

The Democrats aren't a lock, because a lot of stuff is going to happen between now and November. But can someone use numbers to tell me why Trump should be a favorite?

I'll bet you Trump to win the general at market price if you want. Not for crazy amounts, less than 1k. PM me if interested

Eh, I'm not really looking for a bet, I can get down as much as I want on the exchanges. I'm more interested in hearing the Trump case.

Trump is still favored to win according to the lines.

Does anyone think that if the Coronavirus goes bad and the Trump administration appears, to the public at least, to be handling it badly, that it will or won't negatively affect his campaign?

Yes, if the coronavirus gets worse it will hurt trump chances of winning.

so we went from "obama saved the economy" to "i have no idea what I'm talking about" within a page

I mean Trump is the closest thing to a hardliner on immigration in mainstream US politics and his disdain for China is palpable so blaming him for Coronavirus is a stretch since the situation would almost certainly be worse under President Hillary. Nice try MSM

This is the first time where I have distinctly thought that the Trump administration seems to be dropping the ball. It still remains to be seen whether this is media hype or not, but the lack of testing to this point is damning.

We all have valid opinions and viewpoints, I think.
I understand and respect Mickey's perspective.
Most importantly, I don't want to clog up the thread with back and forth arguments.
Like I already said before. This thread is not for us to express our personal politics.
If you or anybody here can tell me something insightful in order for me to make a more educated decisition, for example, "No way in hell Biden is winning Michigan, I live there , I know" ,then I'm more than all ears. I don't care what your personal politics are.

Ivr, pro tip.
No way in hell Trump is winning in Massachusetts in the general! "
You're welcome

You guys are aware I assume that aside from endorsing Biden, Bloomberg is also going to put at his disposal his money and infrastructure.
Bloombergs team are all in on working for Biden.
An announcement is about to be made in CNN.
Being the degenerate I am, I'm betting that's what it's going to be.

before this threads catches COVID-19, how can we exploit this biden surge to make money off of bernie

Biden saw a huge surge on PREDICTIT in Idaho to where Bernie is down to 56 cents. The growth rate for Idaho's population is very similar to Nevada's (in terms of % growth and where people are coming from but doesn't have as high as a hispanic population [12% vs 24%] which voted heavily for Bernie). Idaho already went Bernie in 2016 before this. I'm going to go heavy on Bernie Idaho at this price.

Michigan is another interesting one. The latest poll (n = 600, from an eh group) had Biden +7. The one a week before from a better pollster had Sanders +9. Right now Sanders is only 17 cents on Michigan. I think a viable strategy is to buy up a bunch of Sanders and try to dump it over the weekend at better odds. There's news stories coming out about how Bernie is focusing on Michigan and that this could be his "last stand" which I think will drive his price up.

Sanders is only 62 cents in Washington. I'd still take him at those odds.

North Dakota I'd avoid. I don't think there's even been a poll.

Hawaii too

Only problem I have with Hawaii is that it's so far out on April 4th. I don't mind tying the money up but I just worry that if it's obvious who is going to win people won't come out. Also I have doubts Hawaii will still exist on April 4th after this Grand Princess cruise ship news.

The only negative with Idaho is that it's a caucus and those seems random. Tulsi could end up winning somehow.

I have been trying to find some numbers to quantify my reasoning but it seems like the Democratic Party is having its own civil war. Progressives vs. Moderates. Moderates won on Tuesday but Progressives will pay it forward by not showing up to the polls for Biden.

The big wrench for Trump right now is COVID-19.