What were the lines for Connor vs Mayweather lol?

Based on my perusal of some right leaning forums are: MSM is left leaning so ofc they’re hyping Biden, polls were wrong last time; trump will comeback.

Based on my perusal of some left leaning forums: Polls showing an easy victory, remember Hillary blowing it, PA is looking close.

Basically overconfidence in one side and a mixture of confidence and fear for the other.

It feels pretty bad, that we are this close to the election & betting markets, are Still shifting toward trump, not reflecting "sharp" money or any polling data.

I doubt that the betting market will shift much these upcoming days without a significant event. bouncing from +187 to +200
This leaves me worried, as I expected the odds to start to go Biden's way during the final stretch barring any big scandals hitting him.

largest wager of life sweats

200K votes or less for Kanye at 35c on Predictit. Seriously? 200k votes? I would have thought maybe 10-15k.

You mean +1200? Or -1200 it’s guaranteed Trump wins?

I’m wagering Trump ends up at 290-320 range + popular vote.

Look at the last election, if it were not for California voting so heavily for Hillary, he’d have won both. Word on the street in Cali is that, Newsom and the other tiny despots are going too far with the lockdowns.

I mean... wear your mask in between bites during a major national holiday feast?? LOL

so I’m betting some non small % of Cali votes for Trump.

I agree this is a great buy, though slightly less so than you seem to. I'm max long this and short some of the others in this market. Got in too early though (thought the day after Rogan was a good time to start).

Kanye's going to be on a couple of ballots, so it all comes down to how frisky people are feeling the day of the election.

AR, CO, ID, IA, KY, LA, MN, MS, OK, TN, UT, VT are the 12 states Kanye's name will be on. 84 total EVs or ~16% of the pop.

Imagine all the new RVs voting for Kanye.

Too bad Kanye can't even vote for himself (assuming his residence is in CA, FL, TX, GA, IL or WY)

Brock Pierce also can't vote for himself because Puerto Ricans don't get to vote.

michigan is the 3rd most likely tipping point state for dems according to 538. its likely in the top 5 within the biden campaign.

the tipping point = the state that gets you past 270 electoral votes and therefore you become the next president. it's vital to devote campaign resources to any state with a realistic chance of being the tipping point.

Kanye is an easy fade

It's one of the biggest locks around. You would require something like red illinois, red washington, red oregon, red new jersey, etc. Needless to say, that's not happening.

I assume it is propped up by a combination of highly optimistic MAGA money and people who misread the prop and think it means a total of 280+ votes rather than a margin of victory.

Counterpoint: I don't feel like tracking down the exact data, but I listen to a few daily political podcasts, and I recall Charlie Sykes quoting something over the summer about the percentage of voters self-identifying as Republican is at an all-time low. Which was to say that the GOP has been leaking voters at the fringes. It wasn't translating to increased self-identifying Democrats; just more people claiming 'independent' status. That would indicate those people COULD be lured back to the right, but, I'm having a hard time seeing it.

There’s actually been a net increase and closing of gap between D/R. More people have historically associated with Dems.

Here’s an interesting point for everyone here:

https://www.outkick.com/jb-pritzker-...school-sports/

The Democratic machinery is trying to shut it all down to have Trump out of office. The only way to rationalize this would be to accept the short term pain and as reward kick Trump out and win the elections. Then the real reward comes as they can get a 2+ Trillion bailout to the cities.

For further proof listen to the NYC comptroller talking on Bloomberg a month back or so (hard to miss as that guy isn’t that important). Instead of saying “we’re cutting costs to deal with this” he went full crazy by saying essentially “it’s okay, not too worried as once the elections are over with Biden well get a bailout from the feds”

Lol what? Do you all seriously believe that parents and regular citizens don’t notice their government and Democratic Party screwing them over?

But of course COVID is super deadly and is super serious you guys!! Shut down high school sports because no one wants our children to be physically active and healthy!

Someone forgot to tell Gallup, I guess.

Weird:
“Republicans narrow voter registration gap in swing states”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/voter-r...es-narrow-gap/

Maybe the Gallup asks rather than check voter registration ?

I remember back in 2012 Poogs the right wing hack got his ass split roasted by Obama

All that ****er talked about was Romney this and Romney that.

The same guys then are saying the same **** now

I picked up a large amount then and will more than do so again this election

We have this idiot WHB in here with 25k invested in this Election and he doesn't even realize there are more Democrats in America than there are Republicans
Just think about that. The guy has $25,000 invested and doesn't even know which team has more players.
That's should be the first thing your figure out before going ahead and investing significant amounts of money on the outcome of an Election

Lol i love all the long posts that boil down to "i believe the polls"

i like when nate silver had celts as the best team in NBA. i was on them before him, but they clearly werent better than the lakers... models cant pick up stuff sometimes.. he had brazil as crushing germany lol. im sure peopel who follow sports knows what happened that game...

obviously trump bettors think the polls are wrong and arent sampling the likely voters correctly. how can anyone really think trump is going to lose texas or georgia? you guys really believe the polls that have biden winning or doing well in those places?/ or do you throw them away

i think its fine to look at polls but to just do a polling average rather than throwing out the polls (that you actually look through how they did sampling) and realize that its impossible when you take 2 polls and see what they have as their margin of error, max out the margin and the 2 polls still arent touching. you know at least 1 of the polls isnt accurate even to their margin of error.. so at least 1 poll in their is probably complete junk or 2 polls that arent even close lol


Margin of error±3.1% (adjusted for weighting)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85...nTabReport.pdf

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct28

"The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted October 22 and 25-26, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. "

one poll has biden +11 and the other has trump +1, so thats a 12 point difference, so at least one of these polls is pure garbage right? or maybe even both?

like im sure polls probably win political bettors money in a decent percent of elections, but to throw out 2016 and how off the polls were and pretend they "fixed the errors" seems like a mistake

to think that the gambling market is off by so much because of "idiot trump supporters" seems a bit stupid especially if you are pumping in a ton of liquidity on the biden betting side.

Third presidential debate was the 22nd and maybe the energy policies for the candidates effected the price, or it could be the news that Biden is compromised by Communist Chinese money emails that have been dropping

Dunno if you've been paying attention to Texas, but Texas has been slowly getting less red. D's were 38% in 2000 and ~48% in 2018. Senate race: Ted Cruz vs Beto ORourke was 50.89% vs 48.33%. House election: 50.4% vs 47%.

The turnout in Texas is typically much lower than the national average since everyone thinks it will go R. Ds have a chance if they can get their voters out. (D +270 is probably fair).

Actual headline today

Tucker Carlson Reports He Lost Only Copy of Documents That Nail Biden

lol

Texas won't turn blue this cycle barring a massive landslide but demographically it is trending blue and will be a swing state within a generation at most just as how Missouri used to be a swing state but is red now or Ohio leaning red rather than being the bellweather or how Virginia has gone red to purple to blue etc

Demographics change over time. Arizona will be a blue state in a decade or two, good chance the Midwest continues to trend red after this cycle while the sun belt trends blue etc

Seems like a slowish news day, Biden still 1.53 on Betfair mild drift of a cent or so over past 24h, no substantial polling news other than the obvious outlier with Biden on 57 in Wisconsin and some Trump supporters getting stuck in the cold after a rally and I guess the riots in PA yesterday or w/e

Decent news for Biden on the voter suppression front out of PA and NC though which is nice

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/u...e-ballots.html

so you're an american living in the states and you've bet another $225k at books besides predictit? either you're lying, or you've made hundreds and hundreds of re-bets at where...betonline?

those are pretty good numbers! my head assistant has made roughly the same since he started working with me, though with that being said, he started in 2018 so you had a two year head start. still, you're solidly in the black, congrats! keep up the good work and maybe by the 2024 election, we'll have to consider your application for membership as a chatroom millionaire. we may have an opening in our politics division, as it seems TomG becomes less and less involved every year. although, hell, i hope the rest of us are done with this **** too by that time.

i didn't say hunder biden molested his niece. i did post a link to a site that has a string of texts that hunter biden's romantic partner, that is, his late brother's widow, had voiced concerns that she he had engaged in sexually inappropriate behaviour with her daughter. his niece. along with a photo of biden in the nude, with presumably said niece, or perhaps another minor (does it really matter?) in the background.

so which is it:

a. completely fabricated fake news?
b. america no longer cares about child molesting and millions of people are ready to stand in line for hours to support this man
c. biden bad but orange man worse

you haven't actually given any explanation, just painted some picture of a braindead trump supporter. do i need to support a particular candidate in order to think that child molestation allegations may potentially be harmful to a candidate's campaign? is this the kind of arrogance that cost hillary the election in 2016?

my personal political views here are just as irrelevant as yours. at no point in this thread have i voiced any support for either candidate. i did state just a couple days ago that i've bet almost nothing on this election. so i'm not invested financially either.

you're delusional if you think that only hardcore magatards are paying attention to the hunter biden scandals. just yesterday i saw an under-40 hispanic male post a long diatribe about the hunter biden hebephilia scandal. 12 likes and 7 comments within the first hour on facebook. how many people are going to see that and look into it? even if you do want to brand it fake news, we know that much less credible information from much less credible sites did make a difference in 2016. you might think those people are beneath you, but the bad news is their vote counts for just as much as yours in american democracy.

and i don't agree with you that trump's strategy of attacking biden's character is incorrect. biden is running on his character. he doesn't refer to his record, or his abilities. this satirical image started trending among biden supporters who weren't in on the joke:




biden's supporters saw this image, nodded their heads, and said, yeah, that's my guy. what does that tell you? biden's ONLY appeal is that he's meant to be the good guy in this race. up against mean racist homophobic corrupt mr. trump. biden himself closed the final debate with this. he didn't talk about americans' very real problems in a pandemic, as you suggested. he said you are voting on what you want the character of this nation to look like. if his supporters start to think his character is enabling his hebephiliac drug-addicted son, they may question if his image is really as clean as his campaign tries to project.



no ****. i hope you really do have $300k invested in the election, because it would be so satisfying to mine the salt after you lose over half your profits from the past five years.

I read four pages and this was the only rational thought I found.

@hollidayinthesun: the graph is only predictit profits...

Post your graphs for comparison (lol)

Only in Trumpworld can it exist where 26 women all with detailed, credible claims of sexual assault from the same man must all be lying bitches... But one vague text message and an out of context photo that has no actual source is PROOF OF PEDOPHILIA

"BUT TEH POLLZZ"

I might add Trump wins Arizona too.

edit* I will add Trump wins Arizona, even the polls have that as a flip.