Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2019, 01:00 AM   #176
The Bukafax
veteran
 
The Bukafax's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,383
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Seems like a good time to throw down as much money on Warren before the line moves.
The Bukafax is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2019, 08:04 AM   #177
HolidayInTheSun
old hand
 
HolidayInTheSun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,209
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

The Trump impeachment thing is interesting, because usually in these political disagreements, people are talking about completely different things. You talk about race relations and leftists picture an educated black gentleman in a suit in a nice car which he did not steal, driving the speed limit, sober, and maybe he has a tail light out, and the cops stop him, pull him out of his car and beat him to death just because. The right pictures a known thug with a long rap sheet who has just done something suspicious like steal from a shop or is loitering in a dark alley, then resists arrest, and police use force to bring him to heel. And then the left and right disagree over racism in America. This, at least, you can understand. You can see how one side is not understanding the other.

But in the case of this phone call, we have the transcript. People are reading the exact same words, and each side looks at it and interprets a completely different reality. I don't know what to make of that.
HolidayInTheSun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2019, 09:28 AM   #178
RhodyGuy
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,236
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
I keep seeing it repeated everywhere that Dems are going to have a high turnout, but nobody has provided a compelling reason why. I said the same in an earlier post: If you thought a Trump victory would bring the apocalypse in 2016, and that was not enough to motivate you to vote then, why would you vote in 2020, after seeing that he did win, and the world did not collapse?

You could make the claim that Hillary didn't energise her base to support her, but if the options are Warren or Biden, I don't think there is going to be a big change in that area. Warren is dull and has no charisma, Biden is likable like your friend's grandfather who everyone has something nice to say about, but you wouldn't trust him to make you a coffee without burning himself. I don't think many truly think he would be a good president, or even a competent president. So I don't think either of those candidates would inspire more passion than Hillary.
Using the small and smaller sample of those in my fairly large circle the reason I have heard makes some sense. Several I know who voted Obama either didn't vote due in 2016 to their inability to pull the Hillary lever or voted Johnson, which they failed to recognize was essentially a Trump vote. These same people are now on board with a ABT (Anyone But Trump mentality) so I'm not sure how much a poor Democratic candidate matters in 2020 as it did in 2016 (it will to a degree but much less than after what we know now)......while recognizing that every candidate is severely flawed. It cannot be ignored that aside from the non-voters due to Hillary being their only legitimate option you have Trump failing several of those swing states where the ABT rally could really hit him as well.

My prediction: Trump loses critical swing states and throws a tantrum on the voting process while refusing to accept the results or leave office. All hell breaks loose.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bukafax View Post
Seems like a good time to throw down as much money on Warren before the line moves.
Already too late. The numbers shifted immediately a couple days ago. She is now the heavy Democratic favorite ahead of Biden and 3-1 to win Presidency which also narrowed the gap on the winning party with the GOP now nearing almost a Pick em.
RhodyGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2019, 11:00 AM   #179
parttimepro
adept
 
parttimepro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,195
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
But in the case of this phone call, we have the transcript. People are reading the exact same words, and each side looks at it and interprets a completely different reality. I don't know what to make of that.
Same thing as watching the replay of a close call in a football game. Each team's fans are seeing the exact same video, but they'll have 180-degree opposite interpretations. It's hard to remain unbiased in the face of tribal loyalty.
parttimepro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2019, 12:42 PM   #180
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek123 View Post
Impeachment means it goes to senate not that he’s forced out of office.
Right, I was only mentioning it because its interesting to see how heavily one line affects the other. Does a 30 point swing in impeachment odds move the "will he finish his first term" line a lot? If so, how much? I wonder what the latter line would be if impeachment does actually happen.
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2019, 08:31 PM   #181
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 805
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Right, I was only mentioning it because its interesting to see how heavily one line affects the other. Does a 30 point swing in impeachment odds move the "will he finish his first term" line a lot? If so, how much? I wonder what the latter line would be if impeachment does actually happen.
Senate will never reach the numbers needed to impeach Trump. And if they ever did I honestly fear the road this country would be headed down. Trump supporters are very loyal and armed to the teeth. It could end very badly.
CodythePATRIOT is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2019, 11:38 PM   #182
lvr
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 2,372
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
But in the case of this phone call, we have the transcript. People are reading the exact same words, and each side looks at it and interprets a completely different reality. I don't know what to make of that.
I've just come to the conclusion that they just don't care about the truth anymore. It doesn't really matter how much evidence you show certain people it will never change their mind.

My mind was blown after the Michael Brown incident. Even after all the video evidence they just don't care.

It's like trying to disprove Islam to goat herders in the mountains of Afghanistan.

That's why I just try to stay ignorant on all topics these days.
lvr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-26-2019, 11:40 PM   #183
lvr
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 2,372
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT View Post
Trump supporters are very loyal and armed to the teeth. It could end very badly.
This is the scenario I bet will never happen. The people who are always the loudest about violence are always the last to act.
lvr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2019, 10:51 AM   #184
parttimepro
adept
 
parttimepro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,195
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Politicians are very much self-interested survivors. For the GOP, right now, that means sticking as close to Trump as possible. If enough evidence comes to light that Trump's approval rating among Republicans drops to, say, 50%, you'll start seeing the Senate acting a lot more independently.

They'll never vote to convict, though. If it got that bad, Trump would probably resign rather than hold through to the bitter end.

And at that point, what are the hardcore loyalists going to do? You might have a couple nutcases do some mass shootings, which would make it a normal Tuesday in America.
parttimepro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-27-2019, 03:49 PM   #185
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Ill take -10000 on trump ever resigning
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2019, 07:17 PM   #186
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 805
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
Ill take -10000 on trump ever resigning
Exactly. I'm not saying it's a likely scenario, but I kind of wish the Dems would just try to win at the ballot box instead of doing this. Just because it seems like a lose-lose, majority of the country doesn't want Trump impeached.
CodythePATRIOT is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-28-2019, 07:34 PM   #187
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I was watching real time and they were talking about how even with the impeachment inquiry, actually removing trump from office is never going to happen and everyone knows it. But then they go "but we have to do it cuz its the RIGHT. THING. TO DO." And the audience went crazy. Dems have GOT to stop thinking like this. Its their problem with policy too...they want to things that seem or 'feel' like the right thing but dont have the evidence to back it up.

I think this impeachment stuff is a bad move for the Dems but we shall see. Id be looking to bet trump to win the election in the next couple weeks or so when his odds bottom out.
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2019, 04:23 PM   #188
parttimepro
adept
 
parttimepro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,195
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Looks like Bernie had a heart attack. Everybody's talking about stents not being a big deal, but the press release his campaign put out is entirely consistent with a heart attack preceding the stents. He "experienced some chest discomfort" and was "found to have a blockage in one artery." That could be either a heart attack or just angina. You'd think if he hadn't had a heart attack, they'd have said that to tamp down speculation.
parttimepro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2019, 04:47 PM   #189
The Bukafax
veteran
 
The Bukafax's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,383
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
I was watching real time and they were talking about how even with the impeachment inquiry, actually removing trump from office is never going to happen and everyone knows it. But then they go "but we have to do it cuz its the RIGHT. THING. TO DO." And the audience went crazy. Dems have GOT to stop thinking like this. Its their problem with policy too...they want to things that seem or 'feel' like the right thing but dont have the evidence to back it up.

I think this impeachment stuff is a bad move for the Dems but we shall see. Id be looking to bet trump to win the election in the next couple weeks or so when his odds bottom out.
Seems silly to think when this same scenario happened 20 years ago. It worked amazingly for Rs. They knew Clinton wouldn’t be removed from office and still did it. Republicans reigned supreme for a long time after that

My basis for why Trump won’t win again is two fold. His opponent was hated massively and still gained the voting majority. The second is swing states such as MI and MN have went back to D. They won’t be giving him points in 2020.
The Bukafax is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2019, 04:58 PM   #190
Malachii
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 3,994
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Just covered my Kamala Harris short on Predictit (shorted her to win the Nomination and to win SC.) Only made a couple hundred, but there is something especially satisfying about making money betting against her, she's fake as f*ck and I can't stand her.

Side question: Do you think Tulsi Gabbard will be getting a Christmas card from her this year?
Malachii is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2019, 05:10 PM   #191
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 805
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bukafax View Post
Seems silly to think when this same scenario happened 20 years ago. It worked amazingly for Rs. They knew Clinton wouldn’t be removed from office and still did it. Republicans reigned supreme for a long time after that
I see people quoting historical facts like this often in order to indicate a precedent for what has happened before. The game has changed, all of this is out the window.
CodythePATRIOT is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2019, 05:11 PM   #192
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 805
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
Just covered my Kamala Harris short on Predictit (shorted her to win the Nomination and to win SC.) Only made a couple hundred, but there is something especially satisfying about making money betting against her, she's fake as f*ck and I can't stand her.

Side question: Do you think Tulsi Gabbard will be getting a Christmas card from her this year?
This seems like the blow from which Harris won't be recovering. It's the Dems version of the Marco Rubio beatdown by Chris Christie.
CodythePATRIOT is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2019, 05:14 PM   #193
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 805
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro View Post
Looks like Bernie had a heart attack. Everybody's talking about stents not being a big deal, but the press release his campaign put out is entirely consistent with a heart attack preceding the stents. He "experienced some chest discomfort" and was "found to have a blockage in one artery." That could be either a heart attack or just angina. You'd think if he hadn't had a heart attack, they'd have said that to tamp down speculation.
He apparently canceled TV ads in Iowa too, Warren is full steam ahead at this point.
CodythePATRIOT is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2019, 07:24 PM   #194
The Bukafax
veteran
 
The Bukafax's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,383
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT View Post
I see people quoting historical facts like this often in order to indicate a precedent for what has happened before. The game has changed, all of this is out the window.
I don’t think the population in a macro sense has changed all that much
The Bukafax is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2019, 12:05 AM   #195
etothemc2
old hand
 
etothemc2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: South Bend
Posts: 1,291
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
The Trump impeachment thing is interesting, because usually in these political disagreements, people are talking about completely different things. You talk about race relations and leftists picture an educated black gentleman in a suit in a nice car which he did not steal, driving the speed limit, sober, and maybe he has a tail light out, and the cops stop him, pull him out of his car and beat him to death just because. The right pictures a known thug with a long rap sheet who has just done something suspicious like steal from a shop or is loitering in a dark alley, then resists arrest, and police use force to bring him to heel. And then the left and right disagree over racism in America. This, at least, you can understand. You can see how one side is not understanding the other.

But in the case of this phone call, we have the transcript. People are reading the exact same words, and each side looks at it and interprets a completely different reality. I don't know what to make of that.
I imagine we are part of 1% or less that actually read the transcript. The spin is all that matters, the truth be damned. Sadly, the only thing that moves the needle is the PR battle in the aftermath of an event like this.

Even though the transcript was benign, it doesn't matter because nobody read it. The left was more unified and controlled the media narrative. Trump did himself a great disservice by pivoting to investigations and the nonsense about spies / treason. Therefore the left comes out looking more reasonable and thus the impeachment numbers rise.

Of course, anybody who actually reads the transcript would realize this is ridiculously overblown and much ado about nothing. That's just not the way this society works.
etothemc2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2019, 10:44 AM   #196
parttimepro
adept
 
parttimepro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,195
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Interesting. I read the transcript and I thought it was 100% unambiguous that Trump illegally asked the Ukrainians to dig up dirt on a political opponent.
parttimepro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2019, 11:20 AM   #197
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

we really are in trouble as a country I think
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2019, 04:50 PM   #198
Malachii
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 3,994
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro View Post
Interesting. I read the transcript and I thought it was 100% unambiguous that Trump illegally asked the Ukrainians to dig up dirt on a political opponent.
I agree but Trump supporters are sooooo f*cking stupid, they'll believe anything that he's selling.
Malachii is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2019, 04:51 PM   #199
CodythePATRIOT
adept
 
CodythePATRIOT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 805
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro View Post
Interesting. I read the transcript and I thought it was 100% unambiguous that Trump illegally asked the Ukrainians to dig up dirt on a political opponent.
That's what is so interesting about the transcript, it is the ultimate Rorschach test.
CodythePATRIOT is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2019, 04:53 PM   #200
Malachii
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 3,994
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

And I think on the Dem side of things it's very clear at this point that it will be Biden or Warren (and I'm happy to report I have big positions on both.) I think at this point Biden is undervalued relative to his polling numbers and Warren is overvalued, but Warren has momentum and that counts for a lot.

I picked up a bit of Bernie to win New Hampshire at 10 and 11 cents yesterday after the news broke, I think he's got a decent chance there. And I hope he's OK, he seems like a genuinely good man and a person of strong character.
Malachii is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:58 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online