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2019 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread 2019 NFL Picks and Discussion Thread

12-15-2019 , 05:49 PM
I swear there are some real idiots out there. They all screamed the whole world on the Pats, and everyone will tease the Pats and play Pats ML, Bengals upset alert, jump on Bengals now. That made me LOL.
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12-16-2019 , 07:14 PM
Won
1) over 46 Bucs
2) bills ml
3) cowboys ml
4) Texans +3

Lost
1) dolphins +3.5 (wtf)
2) browns -2.5
3) raiders -6.5
4) jets +17

Tonight
Colts +9


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12-16-2019 , 08:17 PM
Titans let me down on a ten team acca. Put Texans in by mistake and just before clicking bet I noticed and changed back to titans. Went try and bet big on Dallas because I was tilt and bet never worked so thought it was a sign not to back them for first time in ages and they win.

Vikings only there fav and can't take it anymore need a blow out to stay human and don't go super stressed depressed mode.

Last edited by Floparabbit; 12-16-2019 at 08:18 PM. Reason: Only £5 ACCA but still would be epic for xmas
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12-18-2019 , 07:09 PM
Cashed out Vikings bet.

ACCA instead bills +6.5 Dallas -2.5. Tampa bay +3. Titans +3

Good luck and happy holidays
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12-19-2019 , 10:15 AM
Dallas should be far to good for a injury hit side. Going back them -7.5 for bigger odds.

Can't see anyway eagles keep game close.
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12-19-2019 , 02:34 PM
This weekend i'm going with following bets

Patriots vs Bills; over 36.5 @1.91
Redskins vs Giants; over 41.0 @1.91
Jets vs Steelers; over 37.0 @1.91
Broncos vs Lions; over 38.0 @1.91
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12-21-2019 , 01:23 PM
Texans -3
Bills +6.5

YTD 29-26-3
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12-21-2019 , 01:32 PM
ACCA Fulham 5/2 won Oldham 13/10 won Texans -3 bills +6.5

Don't like Texans but bet won't let me cash out so stuck with them(
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12-21-2019 , 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Floparabbit
ACCA Fulham 5/2 won Oldham 13/10 won Texans -3 bills +6.5

Don't like Texans but bet won't let me cash out so stuck with them(
5 picks first half and Texans can't lead first half .

Texans lucky beat titans. Watson good but done nothing first half
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12-22-2019 , 07:01 AM
Well that was no good. Never go against Brady even when he is 50 with no offense.

Saints and Dallas. Any reason to back eagles? Dallas look certs?
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12-22-2019 , 11:53 AM
its weird....sharps like eagles in this spot. but i just think there's a talent disparity.

Jets +3
Cardinals +9.5
Dallas -2
under lions broncos 38
over browns ravens 49
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12-22-2019 , 01:01 PM
Falcons -7.5
Saints -3.5
Giants -1.5
Dolphins +1.5
Panthers +7
Ravens -10

YTD 29-27-4
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12-22-2019 , 04:43 PM
Raiders +7.5
Lions +8
Seahawks -8
Cowboys -2.5
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12-23-2019 , 05:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234
This weekend i'm going with following bets

Patriots vs Bills; over 36.5 @1.91
Redskins vs Giants; over 41.0 @1.91
Jets vs Steelers; over 37.0 @1.91
Broncos vs Lions; over 38.0 @1.91
3 wins out of 4. Clearly not bad
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12-26-2019 , 11:48 AM
My last 4 bets of the calendar year (i'm also using these selections to try win some cash in OLBG NFL competion) ...

Broncos vs Raiders; over 41.0 @1.95
Ravens vs Steelers; over 37.5 @1.91
Bills vs Jets; over 36.0 @1.91
Vikings vs Bears; over 36.5 @1.91
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12-29-2019 , 12:49 PM
Falcons -1
Panthers +13.5
Lions +12.5
Bills -1

YTD 35-31-4
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12-29-2019 , 10:02 PM
What's the difference between the Saints game and the Packers game? Almost identical everything but the results are not the same. If you know what it is, dm me, much appreciated. I'm done here, good luck guys.

YTD 37-33-4
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12-30-2019 , 04:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Risto234
My last 4 bets of the calendar year

Broncos vs Raiders; over 41.0 @1.95
Ravens vs Steelers; over 37.5 @1.91
Bills vs Jets; over 36.0 @1.91
Vikings vs Bears; over 36.5 @1.91
It was just like this place's name - 2 (wins) + 2 (defeats) ...
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12-30-2019 , 08:18 AM
..............................................




As you can see from the link, statistician Mike Shackleford, who runs the Wizard of Odds website, tracked about 2,100 NFL games involving road dogs and found them to win 53.75% with a 2.57% R.O.I.

I speculated that the road dogs might win a higher % if only games where they got more than 3 points were considered

I tracked this for the entire 2019 NFL regular season - I am not including pushes - there weren't many - I think just 2



Results for road dogs who got more than 3 points:


61-41.........................59.80% winners......................14.17%........ R.O.I


anyone who wants to double check my stats or work on prior seasons can do so at covers.com - they have data going back many years
I plan to scope this out next season too




I am not associated with covers.com in any way and I do not recommend their for pay services. I only mentioned them because they are the only ones I know of who make this kind of historical data publicly available


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
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12-30-2019 , 06:58 PM
I Listened to the experts and thought that there was no way eagles could win lol.

Texans bills is to hard to pick . Like pat's, new Orleans and eagles all outright in a ACCA.
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12-30-2019 , 10:35 PM
ACCA?
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12-30-2019 , 10:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Floparabbit
I Listened to the experts and thought that there was no way eagles could win lol.

Texans bills is to hard to pick . Like pat's, new Orleans and eagles all outright in a ACCA.
Really, you like Pats at 4.5? Im thinking of jumping on Titans SU at +198.
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12-30-2019 , 11:09 PM
Eagles -1 over hawks??? What am I missing


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12-30-2019 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bukafax
Really, you like Pats at 4.5? Im thinking of jumping on Titans SU at +198.
I just locked in TEN SU +198
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01-01-2020 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bukafax
Really, you like Pats at 4.5? Im thinking of jumping on Titans SU at +198.
I like titans @ +5 but can't back against Brady and co in big game like this as time and time again they get it done .

I always back against pat's but game has got new England win written all over it

Last edited by Floparabbit; 01-01-2020 at 03:33 PM. Reason: Think have bet them o/r as probably only field goal in it
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