2013 Major League Baseball - MLB Picks and Discussion - Page 23 - Sports Betting

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05-22-2013 , 12:54 PM

#551

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

One thing I would look at with regard to futures bets like this is the September schedule of each team. For argument's sake, I'll include the series that spills into September also. Number of games against in parentheses.

Rockies: Reds (3), Dodgers (6), Padres (3), Giants (3), Diamondbacks (6), Cardinals (4), Red Sox (2). Includes a 9-game homestand before 3 at Dodger Stadium to finish out.

White Sox: Red Sox (3), Yankees (3), Orioles (4), Tigers (6), Indians (6), Twins (3), Royals (4). 5-game road trip through Detroit and Cleveland before finishing out at home vs. KC.

Tigers: Indians (3), Red Sox (3), Royals (6), White Sox (6), Mariners (4), Twins (3), Marlins (4). Finish out on a 6-game road trip through Minnesota and Miami.

Not that this would make my decision, of course, but it would factor. Gotta like that the Sox finish at home, but it's rather questionable whether that series will mean anything besides pride at that point. Reflected in your odds, obviously. And the Tigers have to be happy about having games against the M's and Marlins in addition to the Twins.

Here's Atlanta's September schedule, just for kicks, and it's markedly easier on paper. Only 3 with the Nats, and 16 games against teams (MIA, NYM, MIL, CHC) with a combined record of 66-111 to date.

Braves: Marlins (7), Mets (3), Phillies (7), Padres (3), Nationals (3), Cubs (3), Brewers (3). Finish with a 7-game homestand vs Brewers and Phillies.

Obviously schedule isn't the be-all end-all, but I can't get behind CWS to win the Central for a number of reasons, including their September AL East gauntlet. Of course if they ship, I'll dine on my words while you enjoy your filet mignon. ;-)

Are September wins worth double or something? I get that maybe you catch a break playing a slightly worse version of the Marlins if you get them in Sept vs. Aug but seems like a pretty trivial factor.

Come up with a win probability for every remaining game and run a sim, imo.

Sincerely,

The Guy Who Lost 50K betting these last year

Last edited by Iowa!; 05-22-2013 at 01:02 PM.

Quote

05-22-2013 , 01:38 PM

#552

losthawks

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 627

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

I get that maybe you catch a break playing a slightly worse version of the Marlins if you get them in Sept vs. Aug but seems like a pretty trivial factor.

Seriously? I didn't think it was too complicated of a concept - it's not playing the Marlins in August vs playing the Marlins in September, it's playing the Marlins in September vs playing the Yankees in September.

Quote

05-22-2013 , 01:43 PM

#553

HolidayInTheSun

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

lol a+

Quote

05-22-2013 , 02:15 PM

#554

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Are September wins worth double or something?

Care to address my original question since this topic is clearly over my head?

Quote

05-22-2013 , 02:36 PM

#555

mattew88

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 4,008

Mariners vs Angels - Under 8.5 @ 2.07

Quote

05-22-2013 , 02:53 PM

#556

losthawks

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 627

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Care to address my original question since this topic is clearly over my head?

I feel like I did already address this sufficiently, to the extent that I understand your point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

I haven't a clue why you would find this relevant to either of our arguments, or really how you came to this conclusion at all. Is your argument that when predicting who will win a division, the relative September schedules of each team in question are unimportant? Because, I suppose that's debatable. If you're argumentative. If it's math you're concerned with, that's fine, because I didn't do any.

But your argument seems to be, "I might be saying you're wrong. I might not be, though. That's for you to figure out." Which is very convincing, so, I concede.

Quote

05-22-2013 , 03:22 PM

#557

HolidayInTheSun

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

If it's math you're concerned with, that's fine, because I didn't do any.

i believe it.

Quote

05-22-2013 , 04:37 PM

#558

borg23

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 16,609

a reason September's schedule could matter is you would probably play decent veteran teams that can't make the playoffs late in the year bc they will probably not care that much and those teams will play a lot more of their younger players that they wouldnt have earlier in the year.

It's also less likely now with the extra wild card but if you play a team that has already clinched their division the last week of the season they will be resting a lot of their main guys.

Quote

05-22-2013 , 08:50 PM

#559

Duke0424

self-banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 13,362

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

I feel like I did already address this sufficiently, to the extent that I understand your point.

I haven't a clue why you would find this relevant to either of our arguments, or really how you came to this conclusion at all. Is your argument that when predicting who will win a division, the relative September schedules of each team in question are unimportant? Because, I suppose that's debatable. If you're argumentative. If it's math you're concerned with, that's fine, because I didn't do any.

But your argument seems to be, "I might be saying you're wrong. I might not be, though. That's for you to figure out." Which is very convincing, so, I concede.

he just meant that the month you play a certain team doesnt matter. like if you have an easy june and a tough september, and another team has a tough june and easy september, why does the second team have an advantage?

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05-22-2013 , 11:27 PM

#560

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,866

losthawks, that whooshing sound you heard above your head earlier.....that was logic.

Quote

05-22-2013 , 11:29 PM

#561

RunHotSports

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,899

Cubs [Jackson] vs PIRATES [Gomez] 1-->1.21
BLUE JAYS [Morrow] vs Orioles [Gausman] 1.34-->1

5 Team Parlay .5-->17.5
Cubs +121
TIGERS RL +115
BLUE JAYS RL +145
RED SOX -151
Angels +121

fyi -that parlay should pay something like 20.8, something f'ed with my place's odds.

Quote

05-23-2013 , 09:01 AM

#562

kp1984

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,505

Quote:

Originally Posted by kp1984

1-4 -3.98

118-118 -1.18

Reds +100 W
Giants -149 L
Rays +101 L
Orioles +100 W
Braves -185 W

3-2 +0.51

121-120 -0.67

Cubs +133

Quote

05-23-2013 , 10:17 AM

#563

mattew88

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 4,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by mattew88

Mariners vs Angels - Under 8.5 @ 2.07

Mariners vs Angels - Under 8.5 @ 2.07 1-7 W

1-0, +1.07u

YTD
Sides: 11-25 -10.07u
Totals: 21-18, +3.16u
Overall: 31-43, -6.91u

Quote

05-23-2013 , 11:42 AM

#564

losthawks

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 627

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

48-32-3, +5.79u

53-36-4, +6.05u

Quote:

Originally Posted by kdog

losthawks, that whooshing sound you heard above your head earlier.....that was logic.

Shrug, not the first time, far from the last time.

Quote

05-23-2013 , 06:34 PM

#565

ouinosino

adept

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 838

kansas city royals game over 8,5 @1,97 big.

Quote

05-24-2013 , 09:07 AM

#566

kp1984

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,505

Quote:

Originally Posted by kp1984

3-2 +0.51

121-120 -0.67

Cubs +133 L

0-1 -1

121-121 -1.67

Cubs +139
Padres +120
Orioles -105
Rays/Yankees over 8.5 +110
Mariners -101

Quote

05-24-2013 , 10:37 AM

#567

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,090

I barely follow baseball. But I'll start giving picks to fade!

Today: Dodgers (Capuano)

Quote

05-24-2013 , 02:48 PM

#568

JoshK

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 2,898

Quote

05-24-2013 , 05:30 PM

#569

losthawks

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 627

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

53-36-4, +6.05u

Phillies-Nationals o6.5 -120
Cards-Dodgers o7.5 -105
Rangers-Mariners o8 -105

Nationals -165
Cards -123
Rangers -115

Quote

05-24-2013 , 11:33 PM

#570

ouinosino

adept

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 838

atlanta gonna destroy my combi i see it coming..

Quote

05-25-2013 , 11:20 AM

#571

RunHotSports

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,899

YTD +1.54 (-6u in parlays in there..grr)

Today;

DODGERS [Lilly] vs Cardinals [Gast] 1.05-->1
DIAMONDBACKS [Miley] vs Padres [Cashner] 1.24-->1
RED SOX RL [Lester] vs Indians [Kazmir] 1-->1.1

6 Team Parlay .20-->12
Rockies +114
REDS RL +130
BREWERS -123
DODGERS -105
DIAMONDBACKS -124
RED SOX RL +110

Quote

05-25-2013 , 12:34 PM

#572

losthawks

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 627

Quote:

Originally Posted by losthawks

53-36-4, +6.05u

58-37-4, +9.12u

Indians-Red Sox u9 -120
Angels-Royals o9 -105
Cards-Dodgers o7.5 -120 (spite play)
Rangers-Mariners o6.5 -105

Red Sox -174
Royals -122
Cards -103
A's -156
Rangers +120
Pirates +110
Padres 5inn +105

Quote

05-25-2013 , 12:37 PM

#573

losthawks

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 627

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunHotSports

YTD +1.54 (-6u in parlays in there..grr)

Blue is blue is blue! Nice.

Quote

05-25-2013 , 12:58 PM

#574

kp1984

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 1,505

Quote:

Originally Posted by kp1984

0-1 -1

121-121 -1.67

Cubs +139 L
Padres +120 L
Orioles -105 W
Rays/Yankees over 8.5 +110 W
Mariners -101 L

2-3 -0.91

123-124 -2.58

Orioles +134
Indians +162
Royals -122
Cubs +152
Pirates +110
Phillies +138
Rangers +120
Padres +108
Diamondbacks/Padres under 9 -110