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2013 Major League Baseball - MLB Picks and Discussion 2013 Major League Baseball - MLB Picks and Discussion

05-22-2013 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
One thing I would look at with regard to futures bets like this is the September schedule of each team. For argument's sake, I'll include the series that spills into September also. Number of games against in parentheses.

Rockies: Reds (3), Dodgers (6), Padres (3), Giants (3), Diamondbacks (6), Cardinals (4), Red Sox (2). Includes a 9-game homestand before 3 at Dodger Stadium to finish out.

White Sox: Red Sox (3), Yankees (3), Orioles (4), Tigers (6), Indians (6), Twins (3), Royals (4). 5-game road trip through Detroit and Cleveland before finishing out at home vs. KC.

Tigers: Indians (3), Red Sox (3), Royals (6), White Sox (6), Mariners (4), Twins (3), Marlins (4). Finish out on a 6-game road trip through Minnesota and Miami.

Not that this would make my decision, of course, but it would factor. Gotta like that the Sox finish at home, but it's rather questionable whether that series will mean anything besides pride at that point. Reflected in your odds, obviously. And the Tigers have to be happy about having games against the M's and Marlins in addition to the Twins.

Here's Atlanta's September schedule, just for kicks, and it's markedly easier on paper. Only 3 with the Nats, and 16 games against teams (MIA, NYM, MIL, CHC) with a combined record of 66-111 to date.

Braves: Marlins (7), Mets (3), Phillies (7), Padres (3), Nationals (3), Cubs (3), Brewers (3). Finish with a 7-game homestand vs Brewers and Phillies.

Obviously schedule isn't the be-all end-all, but I can't get behind CWS to win the Central for a number of reasons, including their September AL East gauntlet. Of course if they ship, I'll dine on my words while you enjoy your filet mignon. ;-)
Are September wins worth double or something? I get that maybe you catch a break playing a slightly worse version of the Marlins if you get them in Sept vs. Aug but seems like a pretty trivial factor.

Come up with a win probability for every remaining game and run a sim, imo.

Sincerely,

The Guy Who Lost 50K betting these last year

Last edited by Iowa!; 05-22-2013 at 01:02 PM.
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05-22-2013 , 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa!
I get that maybe you catch a break playing a slightly worse version of the Marlins if you get them in Sept vs. Aug but seems like a pretty trivial factor.
Seriously? I didn't think it was too complicated of a concept - it's not playing the Marlins in August vs playing the Marlins in September, it's playing the Marlins in September vs playing the Yankees in September.
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05-22-2013 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
Seriously? I didn't think it was too complicated of a concept - it's not playing the Marlins in August vs playing the Marlins in September, it's playing the Marlins in September vs playing the Yankees in September.
lol a+
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05-22-2013 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
Seriously? I didn't think it was too complicated of a concept - it's not playing the Marlins in August vs playing the Marlins in September, it's playing the Marlins in September vs playing the Yankees in September.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa!
Are September wins worth double or something?
Care to address my original question since this topic is clearly over my head?
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05-22-2013 , 02:36 PM
Mariners vs Angels - Under 8.5 @ 2.07
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05-22-2013 , 02:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa!
Care to address my original question since this topic is clearly over my head?
I feel like I did already address this sufficiently, to the extent that I understand your point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa!
Are September wins worth double or something? I get that maybe you catch a break playing a slightly worse version of the Marlins if you get them in Sept vs. Aug but seems like a pretty trivial factor.
I haven't a clue why you would find this relevant to either of our arguments, or really how you came to this conclusion at all. Is your argument that when predicting who will win a division, the relative September schedules of each team in question are unimportant? Because, I suppose that's debatable. If you're argumentative. If it's math you're concerned with, that's fine, because I didn't do any.

But your argument seems to be, "I might be saying you're wrong. I might not be, though. That's for you to figure out." Which is very convincing, so, I concede.
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05-22-2013 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
If it's math you're concerned with, that's fine, because I didn't do any.
i believe it.
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05-22-2013 , 04:37 PM
a reason September's schedule could matter is you would probably play decent veteran teams that can't make the playoffs late in the year bc they will probably not care that much and those teams will play a lot more of their younger players that they wouldnt have earlier in the year.

It's also less likely now with the extra wild card but if you play a team that has already clinched their division the last week of the season they will be resting a lot of their main guys.
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05-22-2013 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
I feel like I did already address this sufficiently, to the extent that I understand your point.



I haven't a clue why you would find this relevant to either of our arguments, or really how you came to this conclusion at all. Is your argument that when predicting who will win a division, the relative September schedules of each team in question are unimportant? Because, I suppose that's debatable. If you're argumentative. If it's math you're concerned with, that's fine, because I didn't do any.

But your argument seems to be, "I might be saying you're wrong. I might not be, though. That's for you to figure out." Which is very convincing, so, I concede.
he just meant that the month you play a certain team doesnt matter. like if you have an easy june and a tough september, and another team has a tough june and easy september, why does the second team have an advantage?
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05-22-2013 , 11:27 PM
losthawks, that whooshing sound you heard above your head earlier.....that was logic.
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05-22-2013 , 11:29 PM
Cubs [Jackson] vs PIRATES [Gomez] 1-->1.21
BLUE JAYS [Morrow] vs Orioles [Gausman] 1.34-->1

5 Team Parlay .5-->17.5
Cubs +121
TIGERS RL +115
BLUE JAYS RL +145
RED SOX -151
Angels +121

fyi -that parlay should pay something like 20.8, something f'ed with my place's odds.
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05-23-2013 , 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kp1984
1-4 -3.98

118-118 -1.18

Reds +100 W
Giants -149 L
Rays +101 L
Orioles +100 W
Braves -185 W
3-2 +0.51

121-120 -0.67

Cubs +133
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05-23-2013 , 10:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattew88
Mariners vs Angels - Under 8.5 @ 2.07
Mariners vs Angels - Under 8.5 @ 2.07 1-7 W

1-0, +1.07u

YTD
Sides: 11-25 -10.07u
Totals: 21-18, +3.16u
Overall: 31-43, -6.91u
2013 Major League Baseball - MLB Picks and Discussion Quote
05-23-2013 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
48-32-3, +5.79u
53-36-4, +6.05u

Quote:
Originally Posted by kdog
losthawks, that whooshing sound you heard above your head earlier.....that was logic.
Shrug, not the first time, far from the last time.
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05-23-2013 , 06:34 PM
kansas city royals game over 8,5 @1,97 big.
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05-24-2013 , 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kp1984
3-2 +0.51

121-120 -0.67

Cubs +133 L
0-1 -1

121-121 -1.67

Cubs +139
Padres +120
Orioles -105
Rays/Yankees over 8.5 +110
Mariners -101
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05-24-2013 , 10:37 AM
I barely follow baseball. But I'll start giving picks to fade!

Today: Dodgers (Capuano)
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05-24-2013 , 02:48 PM
2013 Major League Baseball - MLB Picks and Discussion Quote
05-24-2013 , 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
53-36-4, +6.05u
Phillies-Nationals o6.5 -120
Cards-Dodgers o7.5 -105
Rangers-Mariners o8 -105

Nationals -165
Cards -123
Rangers -115
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05-24-2013 , 11:33 PM
atlanta gonna destroy my combi i see it coming..
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05-25-2013 , 11:20 AM
YTD +1.54 (-6u in parlays in there..grr)

Today;

DODGERS [Lilly] vs Cardinals [Gast] 1.05-->1
DIAMONDBACKS [Miley] vs Padres [Cashner] 1.24-->1
RED SOX RL [Lester] vs Indians [Kazmir] 1-->1.1

6 Team Parlay .20-->12
Rockies +114
REDS RL +130
BREWERS -123
DODGERS -105
DIAMONDBACKS -124
RED SOX RL +110
2013 Major League Baseball - MLB Picks and Discussion Quote
05-25-2013 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by losthawks
53-36-4, +6.05u
58-37-4, +9.12u

Indians-Red Sox u9 -120
Angels-Royals o9 -105
Cards-Dodgers o7.5 -120 (spite play)
Rangers-Mariners o6.5 -105

Red Sox -174
Royals -122
Cards -103
A's -156
Rangers +120
Pirates +110
Padres 5inn +105
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05-25-2013 , 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RunHotSports
YTD +1.54 (-6u in parlays in there..grr)
Blue is blue is blue! Nice.
2013 Major League Baseball - MLB Picks and Discussion Quote
05-25-2013 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kp1984
0-1 -1

121-121 -1.67

Cubs +139 L
Padres +120 L
Orioles -105 W
Rays/Yankees over 8.5 +110 W
Mariners -101 L
2-3 -0.91

123-124 -2.58

Orioles +134
Indians +162
Royals -122
Cubs +152
Pirates +110
Phillies +138
Rangers +120
Padres +108
Diamondbacks/Padres under 9 -110
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05-25-2013 , 06:36 PM
anyone else on the M E T S METS METS METS +142 tonight??
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