Hey friends, this is going to be a quick lesson on the probe bet and triple deke, two of my favourite plays that, against all but the best opponents, can prove to be very profitable. These plays are not really understood, and even if you don't play them, you should know how to play against them.

I'll start with the probe bet. A probe bet is a very small bet (1/8 to 1/3 of the pot) that is designed to polarize your opponents range without them knowing it. Lets say you open the CO with JTs and you get called by the button. The flop comes K78 rainbow. This is a pretty good spot to continuation bet, because we have four outs to the nuts, and the board texture favors our range over our opponents. This is also a great spot for a probe bet, the difference being that a continuation bet is normally around 60% of the pot in this spot, while a probe bet is around 33%.

Lets say the pot is $13 at 1-2 on the flop which is K23, and you elect to bet $3. Many players don't know how to react to these sort of bet sizes. Let me ask you a simple question: how would you react to a bet of this size?

Normally players will call a lot lighter (with smaller pocket pairs, gutters, etc), and many players call with backdoor equity or an ace like AJ or AQ. These same players raise hands like TPTK, probably raise KQ, and also raise 2pair +. Through this decision, we learn a lot about their range. When a player calls a probe bet, they have, usually without even realizing it, defined their range. When a player calls a probe bet instead of raising, they almost always have a very weak hand. This puts us in an great spot to make a big bet on the turn.

Turn 8
Pot $20

Hero bets $18
Villain folds.

This is a grossly profitable play at these stakes against all but the trickiest opponents. Even very strong regs who multi table will often call with a super wide range of weak hands and raise anything strong. By defining their range, we can save money if they raise us because we don't need to make a full size continuation bet when they actually have something good, and if they are weak, they tell us they are weak by calling so we can take it away on the turn and even squeeze some value from really bad hands that are calling because they think they are getting a good price.

The only problem with the probe is that sometimes players raise almost any small bet. The triple deke, a more advanced play, solves this problem.

The Triple Deke The Triple Deke is a full size bet on the flop, a small bet on the turn, and a big bet on the river. The small bet on the turn is designed to serve the same purpose as the probe: to get info on our opponents hand.

The advantage of the Tripple Deke over the Probe bet is that, by betting full size on the flop, we get rid of a whole bunch of air in our opponents range. This makes it harder for our oppoent to raise us with air because the only air he has at this point are floats.

Lets take the same example as last time.

Lets say the pot is $13 at 1-2 on the flop which is K23

This time you bet $9, and opponent calls.

Turn 8
Pot $31

Hero bets $7

By betting the flop, we have removed most of the air from villains range. Anything super weak that he wants to showdown will call this $7, and most of his raising range will include hands that we couldn't bluff him off with a full sized bet.

Villain calls.

River 2
Pot $45

Hero bets $41
Villain folds.

Both of these plays are grossly profitable at anything but higher stakes games. the tripple deke can also be used to get some extra value on the river when the board contains some draws.

Hero has KK
$13 pot on the flop
flop K89
Hero bets $10
Villain calls.

Turn 2
Pot $33

Hero bets $11
Villain calls

River 3
Pot $53

Hero bets $50
Villain calls

Villain shows QQ

The Triple Deke can be used to get value from your strong hands when the boards contain draws that miss, or to bluff at hands by defining your opponents range without him even knowing it.

Using the probe bet to induce Lets say your playing against a very strong opponent. Usually probing with weak hands is a bad play against the very strongest players at a given stake, because they know the play and will react to it, usually with aggression (although most players don't). If you have noticed a player at your table is particularly strong, you can try a probe bet to induce a raise from a weak hand that perceives you as weak. Be careful: this probably won't work all that often, because these sort of players are always taking notes and will figure out your probing range, and eventually the play may just become sub-optimal. That being said, the probe and triple deke I have found to even be effective a few times against strong opponents.

A word of caution: Be careful of probing with a weak made hand on draw heavy boards. these boards are prone to opponents playing back at you with semi-bluffs, and if you are called lots of turn cards can be scary. Even worse, you can give your opponent great odds to call in a situation where he would have payed a lot more. Avoid probing on boards where you wouldn't be inclined to c-bet.

The probe and tripple deke are, in my opinion, far and away the two most profitable plays to exploit weaker, standard, not trickly players which make up the majority of 2-5 online and lower. Even against really strong opponents, they can be used to take down nice size pots every so often. Because the play is unknown to these strong players, they will often react to it in a standard way, at least the first few times. Only truly tough opponents will punish you for this play... and they are all playing 25-50 anyways.

Happy probing!

lol'ed.

You solved poker!@

so you saw phil galfond's video on bluefirepoker

people still talk about bet sizing like its 2007?

isn't that exploitable ?

yep it is exploitable against a strong thinking opponent. Thankfully most players just open up their calling range and raise anything TKSK or TPTK or better for value so its easy to define their range

whose phil gulfund?

nl50 crusher

Hahaha all the cool kids still do it.

no

So are you saying that the triple deke is your adjustment to their adjustment of your probe bet?

I prefer the Flying Dutchman or the Annexation of Puerto Rico to the Triple Deke.

Super advanced plays but so effective vs the right kind of players.

Well you could say that in a way. Against a lot of players, the probe and triple deke are both effective, but the triple deke often works against players who love to raise air against small flop bets by removing the vast majority of air from their range (often 100% cuz many players never float at 200NL or even 500NL and below). To exploit the triple deke, you have to raise the bottom of your range as a bluff a lot on the turn, but most of this range has showdown value. Because it has showdown value, and because the turn bet is so small, most players will happily call with middle pocket pairs, two overs, gunshot + ace, etc. Notice that even if they have over cards or even flush or open ended draws, unless they have a combo draw they are still not getting good odds to call on the turn (flush draws have around 17% chance to hit on the river i believe). by betting 33% of the pot, your giving the occasional flush and open ended draws (which make up a very tiny part of your opponents calling range) not even that great odds to call.

To correctly exploit the triple deke u need to either call super light on the river or raise super light (middle pocket pairs, for example) on the turn. Most players are not capable of these plays and for that reason are super exploitable using the triple deke. Many players who raise air against a probe bet on the flop will just call with the bottom of their range on the turn includes hands with showdown value but then fold those weak hands to a river bomb.

I'm confused. If you're using either one of these techniques villains may be completely justified in calling all sorts of hands that have more than enough equity to continue, even if they fold a bunch to your big bets. This means your bluffs don't generate enough fold equity either.

There is nothing wrong with varying your cbet size but 1/8th pot should not be the minimum.

Would then one way to exploit the probe bet be to call the flop with your top part of your range. because then you are setting your opponent up for the large turn bet in which you can keep calling down. Or you can also min raise with your top range if you feel like your opponent will play back at you (if they start to adjust to your raises with air)? I am just wondering b/c I have problems with probe bets and am trying out different ways one can adjust

nice one! xD

Thanks!!

This is really something good to think about

forsure, assuming your only probing with garbage. When I wrote about "probe bet induce" what I was really talking about is playing the probe against players who are likely going to a) know what your up to and b) play super exploitable means of countering your probe.

Everyone has a different probe range. Sometimes when im bored i play some 5/10 online, and when i sit down at a table im new, unknown, and a lot of people presume i'm a fish. I figure that most players at these stakes are strong, aggressive players who 9/10 times respond to probe bets in those exact ways (either calling down light, or raising when they can't call down). I will probe with a monster, not to gain information but to induce my opponent to play against me incorrectly.

That being said, everyone has a probing range, and ultimatley you can't do this play over and over again against a strong opponent. Against weaker opponents, you can easily probe again and again and they will not respond properly, pretty much producing endless amounts of value. Thats the real value in the play. Against stronger opponents you can't help but get into a leveling war.

If you face a probe bet (expecally at 1/2 or lower) it almost always means weakness. If your facing one, usually raising your air (hands to weak to bluff catch) or calling super light with medium made hands is a highly profitable play. Its for this exact reason that probing with a monster against sharks is a good play if they haven't seen you do it before (or, even better, if they saw u do it with junk against a weaker player at the table, or as a third bonus, you are unknown to them (they don't respect your play)). In a meta where, when this play is used (and it rarley is), players are almost always probe-bluffing, you can be the guy whos probing to induce the ligher calls that you are talking about.