Played on Bovada lets assume very minimal reads right now, pretty much read-less.

I think up untill river the hand is pretty standard, My line for the river was to c/f, I think the J is probably the nut worse card for me as QJ and J8 make a pair.

So the point of this thread was to find out if you guys believe we can make a read just based off his betsize in this hand. I think most people with 2p+ would bet more then 1/3rd pot. So question is, Do you c/r river and how much?



UTG: $102.25 (VPIP: 25.91, PFR: 17.69, 3Bet Preflop: 5.61, Hands: 63,132)
CO: $97.00 (VPIP: 28.17, PFR: 18.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.09, Hands: 59,353)
BTN: $538.00 (VPIP: 37.31, PFR: 23.65, 3Bet Preflop: 6.31, Hands: 62,372)
Hero (SB): $201.00
BB: $227.75 (VPIP: 33.51, PFR: 7.70, 3Bet Preflop: 6.52, Hands: 63,979)

Hero posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has K T

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $4.00, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($8.00, 2 players) 6 T 9
Hero bets $6.00, BB calls $6.00

Turn: ($20.00, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $14.00, BB calls $14.00

River: ($48.00, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BB bets $16.00

Why would you x/r river?

^ because it's good to have a x/r range so villain can't easily vbet thin

hand selection seems good

3x pre

c/c flop

I would c/c river vs a bigger sizing but his sizing is very value oriented so c/r because we block the nuts, even though I sorta hate advocating any kind of river bluffraise.

Sent from my VS870 4G

Spew IMO. Y x/r when you can check call? How many better hands villain fold?

Plus this is Bovada. Its not like we can develop history

3.5

XR Looks perfect imo. He made it a great size for you to take this line.

Gets him off his JQ which he has a ton here and you block TT/KQ. I agree with you that people bet bigger with 78/sets here.

This is bovada. Ur not getting a 34/7 to fold. He bet small bc he is begging u to call, if u raise he still calls u

Good point. didn't see stats

agree with this, though obv vs fishy its not great.

why?

I think he meant bc fishy Bovada.

why???

I'd just c/c the river on this board.

x/c just because if he was smart, he'd notice you were barreling the whole time. a small raise here might induce you to x/r just to be followed by another raise. only thing I could see him call you all the way down with is AT/78/JQ and maybe KQ if he is really gambling. Or of course the usual JJ+

He's a fish.

Don't agree with the rest of ur post either.

vbet river

what do you expect him to be calling with? whats your sizing. sounds too thin imo

First, villain doesn't have the stats listed.

Second, raising IS good IF AND ONLY IF villain folds QJ/J8 hands. I'd say it's obviously highly villain dependent, so make that judgment for yourself.

BB is villain. His stats are 33/7. It's in the OP.

you should still have a c/r bluff range, you'd be surprised how often they fold
kt blocks nut hands and two pair, its pretty good

You think Hero has 64k hands on the guy on Bovada? Use common sense. The stats listed are very likely just stat averages in that position over all sessions.

I agree that our hand is likely strong enough to vbet BvsB. Just need to bet small.

I'm not on board with the VB, This is possibly the nut worse card in the deck.

Well it is a pretty bad card, and it does remove a lot of air combos from villain's range. So trying to extract something from air/weak hands by checking doesn't seem like a great idea since people are usually not good at turning sdv into bluff.

By betting 1/3 pot or even smaller we force him to defend a very wide range (villain is still getting to the river with a lot of worse hands). We don't care about getting raised as much as if we were in position. We don't need >50% equity when called to make betting better than check/?.