Hi, villain is reggish, pretty tight pre : 22/16/7%3bet, F2steal : 65%, afq 44%

partypoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: €26.43
UTG: €57.27
Hero (CO): €52.20
BTN: €68.03
SB: €50.00

SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.75) Hero has 5 5

fold, Hero raises to €1.50, fold, SB calls €1.25, fold

Flop: (€3.50, 2 players) 5 8 A
SB checks, Hero bets €2.25, SB calls €2.25

Turn: (€8.00, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero bets €5.00, SB calls €5.00

River: (€18.00, 2 players) 6
SB checks, Hero bets €13.00, SB raises to €41.25 and is all-in, Hero ?

I think it's a fold, villain will probably raise his 79 OTT
and he plays A8/A6/88/A5 in the same way he did, we only beat a bluff

you don't usually see huge check-raises OTR as bluffs or Ax on NL50, if games are more aggressive then you can't fold this ever.
Since NL50 is nitty, you can find a fold button here, but in practice I rarely find it

snap call. this is one of the best hands you're going to have in this spot and you're getting 3-1 to call. you have to be right 25% of the time so you can't fold the top of your range. villain has plenty of Ax hands imo. you lose to 6 hands

and of those 6 hands 3 are unlikely as 66, 88, and AA all 3bet from the blinds.

most people don't 3-bet 66, some don't 3-bet 88.

chance of that goes up 5-handed tho. even still, you can't fold a hand this strong getting these odds to call. yes, you might lose this particular pot but if you fold all your boats in this situation you can't make money

what's he raising the river with that you beat?
from my experience few regs can make this kind of bluff on NL50.

any ace, lots of 79 hands (though yes some of these raise turn)

again it just comes down to math. if you were in this exact spot 100 times and you call 100 times you print money. can't be scared to pull the trigger even if you might lose >50% of the time

I don't think bet/folding river is too exploitable

Let's not forget A6s,A5s,A8s that villain/hero could have

this.

radio, you're just wrong. in particular, your ranging isn't good. 79 on a paired second heart board? really? come on. you can extrapolate from there as it isn't your only mistake. sorry.

this doesn't matter at these stakes. people just aren't spazzing here often enough. He has precisely a bluff or a boat because he probably views hero as nit-reg (no offense to op) because it's $50nl. That saying is like being crai by someone who has better 100% of the time. Are you calling getting 10:1? 25:1? 1000:1? You should never ever call.

villain definitely has tons of aces. some of them make boats, yes, others don't. he probably plays them all the same way. you can't fold all of your bottom boats to a half-pot raise.

even if we want to literally only put villain on an ace, and take out AT+ that might 3 bet pre, that leaves 5 hands we beat and 3 we lose to. plus we block A5. i'm not getting your math

i agree calling turn with 79 would be bad but as you said, this is giving a lot of credit to a player at these stakes

i'm not trying to come in here and pretend i play better than anyone else. i'm a marginally profitable recreational low-stakes player. but if i'm going to learn something i'm going to have to see the math and hear a better reason than "you have to fold because you might be beat"

Thanks for replies guys.

@radiokeller : I think you're wrong on many points, to start with, I'm pretty sure he doesn't 3bet 66 88 preflop. He's runing 22/16, so he's very unlikely to have 79 in his calling range from sb. If he has 79 in his range, then I'm 100% sure he's not c/calling on the turn. About his value betting range, I'm also sure he's not shoving "any ace" like you said, it would be just dumb.

if you think this guy is flatting river with his top set on a dry board then great read, gg

hi radiokeller,

when it comes to relative hand strength, Ax is not very strong on the river. first, most regs' preflop range is relatively tight for flatting out of the SB vs a 3bb raise. in hero's shoes for this sizing plan (which is relatively large for this board), we should probably only go as thin as AJ for value because with the way ranges interact on a dry board like this, SB only needs to call down hands which have a very high absolute value to remain unexploitable. this means every hand weaker than AJ is a pure bluffcatcher, and obviously you should not be raising pure bluffcatchers for value. raising a hand like AT on the river can be good as a bluff against strong players, however I think that would be pretty awful at these stakes since people here have trouble letting go of hands with high absolute value but low relative value.

for your claim to be true - that Ax is a valueraise on the river - IP would have to be betting 3 streets with a hand as weak as like T8, which means OOP would need to be calling down 3 streets with almost any pair. both of those are completely absurd. also, in practice i can assure you, no one running at 22vpip is EVER valuejamming A7 or whatever on the river. ever, ever, ever.

so anyway, easy fold. no one at these stakes is good enough to bluff here and he's rarely/never valuejamming worse. i'd guess you're good maybe 10% of the time at most.

Before reading the comments I was 'lol call' but yea I agree it's a fold. This is just not a spot villain wanna bluff a lot on where hero's range is uncapped. And a reg would 99% not raise random Ax otr.

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This discussion made me think about what bluffs villain should add on this spot.
Should he play KQhh and 76 this way?
79hh is better raising the turn
KQhh is usually good to check-call the turn since even if you don't hit, K high has a good amount of showdown value, but once you face a river bet, you're probably beat, so is check-shoving the river fine? Also KQ blocks most good Ax. Most regs will be able to fold weak Ax in this spot

fold is good

+1

thanks for this post. i think you've convinced me. in the villain's shoes if he's got Ax there's not much that bets three streets and calls a raise that he beats.

Easy exploitable fold.