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100nl 33 set vs fish 100nl 33 set vs fish

02-26-2015 , 12:10 AM
I have notes that villain has been donking small and folding to a raise.
As player type he is typical loose passive villain. He snap raises the turn.
For value he has A5, 56, 44 and could have slowplayed kings. So he has ~36 value combos and in terms of pot odds we need 11-12 worse combos.
So do you think we are ahead OTT? Can we shove? If not, as played do you call river? I think it's close spot even vs fish.

Microgaming - €1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: €99.00 (VPIP: 23.31, PFR: 18.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.55, Hands: 437)
Hero (UTG): €169.61
CO: €92.00 (VPIP: 24.70, PFR: 17.92, 3Bet Preflop: 3.83, Hands: 1,009)
BTN: €114.43 (VPIP: 32.73, PFR: 26.41, 3Bet Preflop: 11.28, Hands: 6,190)
SB: €139.92 (VPIP: 54.14, PFR: 7.52, 3Bet Preflop: 2.67, Hands: 136)

SB posts SB €0.50, BB posts BB €1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €1.50) Hero has 3 3

Hero raises to €3.00, fold, fold, SB calls €2.50, fold

Flop: (€7.00, 2 players) 4 K 2
SB bets €1.75, Hero raises to €6.00, SB calls €4.25

Turn: (€19.00, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets €19.00, SB raises to €38.00, Hero calls €19.00

River: (€95.00, 2 players) J
SB bets €92.92 and is all-in, Hero calls €92.92

Spoiler:
Hero shows 3 3 (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 51%, Flop 67%, Turn 23%)
SB shows 5 A (Straight, Five High)
(Pre 49%, Flop 33%, Turn 77%)
SB wins €277.84
02-26-2015 , 12:21 AM
I did not even consider it, but what about AK or AA?
That's a lot of combos
02-26-2015 , 04:09 AM
Folding would be absolutely atrocious.
02-26-2015 , 04:19 AM
Meh, not thrilled but I pay him off.. bot set and 2 pair are in his guy's range, maybe some funky AA or AK. Cold deck

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02-26-2015 , 10:33 AM
What?

This decision doesn't seem close at all with 33. A fish has so many two pairs and random spew. AK, KQ, K4, K2, maybe other Kx, AA, missed turned flush draws like 4hXh, etc. I don't think you can get an accurate description of his range given that fishes often don't make sense and will shove a merged range in very unexpected circumstances. Sure I hate the turn minraise so I think I'd just call as well given that we have position, but I don't feel bad about river.

With AK/AA its obviously much closer. Maybe fold if you have the Ah and maybe call the other AA. Or fold all of them. It's quite a standard spot vs fish where you'll have a better idea than us with 136 hands.
02-26-2015 , 05:02 PM
pls tell us you didnt slowroll that poor fishy
02-26-2015 , 06:38 PM
Would it be overkill to go all in on the turn? There are flush and straight draws out there on the turn.
02-26-2015 , 06:47 PM
I play it the same quite often, probably just jam over him on turn since maybe he's bluffing with some random crap that has equity and will call a turn jam but x/f rivers, like 55 or A4hh or something (this is an exploitable jam). I'd expect to run into 44 and 22 quite often as played.
02-26-2015 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Babarberousse
Maybe fold if you have the Ah and maybe call the other AA. Or fold all of them.
Eh, I don't think this applies vs your standard loose passive. I don't think they're going to realize them having Ah can be a decent spot to run a big bluff.

As played I think I'm probably never folding river but not necessarily thrilled about it.
02-27-2015 , 03:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DropTheHammer
Eh, I don't think this applies vs your standard loose passive. I don't think they're going to realize them having Ah can be a decent spot to run a big bluff.

As played I think I'm probably never folding river but not necessarily thrilled about it.
If we have the Ah then the fish has less bluffs as we block his missed nfd. This means his river bet is slightly more value oriented and thus we should fold more.
02-27-2015 , 06:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Babarberousse
If we have the Ah then the fish has less bluffs as we block his missed nfd. This means his river bet is slightly more value oriented and thus we should fold more.
I agree with you on that. I misunderstood.
02-27-2015 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Babarberousse
If we have the Ah then the fish has less bluffs as we block his missed nfd. This means his river bet is slightly more value oriented and thus we should fold more.
Might be true for a reg if his bluffing range comes from Ah specifically. Not true for a fish imo, it blocks a lot more of flushes than bluffs as fish can just decide to bluff with ATC.
02-28-2015 , 12:07 AM
Im not sure about flop raise.
I think; call flop
raise turn
jam river

as played I cant imagine folding. No way. Folding here vs fish seems about like hero calling agsinst a fish. They overplay hands all the time and "accidental range merging" puts lots of stuff you can beat into there value range. This is especially true wgen theyre OOP. Fish tend to check back in pos much much more often than they check-call OOP. They also tend to bluff busted draws very often.

I think youre just plain ahead on the river, factor in pot odds and I cannot imagine this being less than stellar.

As played on the turn, I prob jam against stationy fish but call against maniacal fish.
02-28-2015 , 10:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForeverLearning
Might be true for a reg if his bluffing range comes from Ah specifically. Not true for a fish imo, it blocks a lot more of flushes than bluffs as fish can just decide to bluff with ATC.
There are no flushes on this board so Ah mostly blocks bluffs.
02-28-2015 , 11:43 AM
oh... right my bad
02-28-2015 , 07:43 PM
A5>33
02-28-2015 , 10:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HailLucifer
A5>33
Simulated 100000 Holdem Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
PlayerEquityWin HiTie HiCombos (Natural:Reduced)/TotalRange
147.347.00.6(16:16)/1326A5
252.752.40.6(6:6)/132633

Spoiler:

      
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