Quote:
Originally Posted by Nat Bussichio
What's a reasonable bb/100 for PLO25?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabethebabe
Anything > 0 ??
Not exactly. With a winrate close to zero, the risk of ruin is close to 100%. Paradoxically, to make the risk of ruin reasonable, one should put some winnings by to fund the bankroll, even if moving up isn't planned.
The approximate formula for the risk of ruin
R with a bankroll
B and a known winrate
w playing a cash game with variance
V is
R=exp(-2wB/V). E.g., if the standard deviation is 130 bb/100 (and hence the variance, its square, is 16900), the pure winrate (with rakeback included, life expenses and taxes excluded) is 2 bb/100, the bankroll needed to ensure a risk of ruin smaller than 0.05 (5%) is
B=-Vln(R)/(2w)~-12757 bb, i.e. 130 BI are needed. But if the winrate is 5 bb/100, ~50 BI will suffice. Hence if one can frugally save several bb/100 to fund the roll, the poker career will be more likely to succeed.
In the real situation where the winrate is unknown - there are only Bayesian assumptions in what range it most likely is - the formula is too complicated to be used imho, it can be found in an excellent book 'The Mathematics of Poker' by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankerman, Jerrod also has
a game theory well on 2+2.