yeah, so only players who have negative EV in 3bpots, are allowed to run 1300bi above EV in 30k hands? its just not possible to be winning player and have negative EV when 3betting ip, and all those accounts suddenly was the same ones who ran many times more below, when defending blinds.

you don't even play plo at stars at least, and looks like you dont care about that bots at stars at all/trying to protect them. tell me why you are the one who is right about everything, and why youre the only one who can bust those bots by just watching if they do have same gaming styles? all bot accounts does NOT have same playing styles on this day.

that graphs do prove way more than your based on gamings styles research did, i did see same thing from hud as you got in your pattern, and gave that already banned accounts to starsbased on same stats many months before schwein's thread, and ring still did not got banned.

- this graphs are about colluding, not botting.

ive still plenty of fiilters and accounts what i haven't bring on public yet, few players do know.

stillfan is still way better player than purple for example, it's not about playing styles now.

no

Ive got a good 100k hands from 100z too 600z if anyone wants to take a look at any suspected accounts pm the fish for more info

Also do any of these suspected accounts play the zoom pools pasta could u pm ur skype or some of the suspected accounts

Not sure where to ask, but since this topic is not really a bbv, i might give it a shot.

If anyone of you is living in Czech Republic, how do you deal with taxes?

- Do you even declare your winnings?
- If so, do you pay tax? I've read tax on winnings from gambling is 0%, what about income tax?
- Do you just ship money from Stars (any other site) to your bank account, or you use some kind of neteller/mb stuff?
- Will those 2017 changes affect the current status?

Greatly appreciated!

(feel free to pm me if you dont want to write in public for whatever? reason?)

I'm not sure why I'm responding to this, but here it goes:
1) You really dont get it. I'm NOT takling about account stats - or previus bots. You need to approach this from a scientific point of view. Your method is the problem. You cannot just reverse-engineer graphs with similarities and draw conclusions.
2) I'll recommend you get in contact with a finnish (less language problems) guy with a background in math/statistics
3) My volume and sites are completely irrelevant. Dont hate the player.

so you're saying that could be just normal variance if only players, who have negative EV when they 3bet ip, are running 1300bi above EV on those spots, when no one else does? and it's just a coincidence those do match with already banned botring? nothing else can explain that except card sharing

it's also just a coincidence if yso wont post his graphs with correct filters?

my english skills have nothing to do with this, and yes i'm talking at finnish forums, and also private with finnish, and regs from other countries too.

you do sound like youre trying to protect really obvious cheaters to not get banned, with absolutely zero proper aspects.

Originally Posted by Pastafiore View Post
yeah, so only players who have negative EV in 3bpots, are allowed to run 1300bi above EV in 30k hands? its just not possible to be winning player and have negative EV when 3betting ip, and all those accounts suddenly was the same ones who ran many times more below, when defending blinds.

^Grethe being a winning player with negative EV when 3 betting IP shouldnt be possibly, should it? running 1300 buy ins above EV in 30k hands can't be explained with variance, can it? Grethe I know you know a lot about stats and all that HEM stuff so can't you atleast confirm that it is simply not possibly to run that hot which means that there's something going on with these accounts? Instead of giving Pasta a hard time for the lack of his english skills. Pasta is just trying to help us here

e: i dont know that much about how hot is it possible to run and all that so please correct me if im wrong. BUT if its not possible to run that hot, then we know there is something going on

Grethe is not criticizing Pasta. He is critisizing the method and is advocating for a more scientific approach than just staring at a graph; which I agree with.

Coming up with the method to use going forward is going to be the hard part.

To answer your question about runing hot nothing is IMPOSSIBLE. Technically it is possible that you will win every single hand you will play untill the end of your life. Its just terribly unlikely.

Ty Kelnel. Exactly my point.

SutO,
Hard to say without having done some mathwork/variance calcs. I hope someone have time/skill to look into that aspect.

If you want a more scientific approach people are only going to look more stupid defending any of these players, Pasta what is the standard deviation/100 for all of these players in pots with the filter you used?

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Purple K appears to be by far the worst offender an ~-540bb winrate being ~+175bb winrate over 3200 hands with an estimate standard deviation of 400 is approximately 10σ away from expected results assuming a normal distribution...

A 10σ event occurs about 1 in 130,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 given normally distributed data.

It's safe to say that none of these player's data fits a normal distribution which would be attributed to card sharing and collusion highly influencing their results.

E. seaking made point better. it's safe to say that cannot be variance.

I just went trough my old database dating late 2014. (around 3M hands of plo $100 non-zoom)

All confirmed bot accounts were losing EV-adjusted when 3-betting the BTN and the same time running massive above . I have to say this is a good find.

great times for our game of choice

I know Y.s personally as well, know the people he hangs with pretty well and know how much hours he puts in behind the computer.
Bots suck and should be get rid of but If (t)his account is a bot I'm buying everyone on this forum a beer, except all the Finish players, since they got all the dough anyways.

Are you able to query your database to find other instances of accounts with that configuration? This could help find some non discovered bots and/or tell how often this configuration produces a false positive.

At the very least this 3-bet Bu ev Stat can be added to the other 30 stats used to compare and contrast real players to bots.

American football Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers once vouched for American baseball Milwaukee Brewers player Ryan Braun, that Braun didn't use steroids. Rodgers backed up his vouch by saying he would bet his salary on Braun being innocent even in the face of evidence Braun was guilty. Well, Braun was finally caught and admitted to using steroids. I'm still waiting on my share of Aaron Rodgers $4.5 million dollar salary that he bet as a vouch.

IF accusing someone is a bot without any stats is a witch hunt, THEN aren't some of you in here committing the opposite but just as bad offense of vouching for someone without stats? Meeting and talking to someone isn't enough.

Feel free to suggest some queries.

I did check some of the high volume regs and they did have positive EV-adjusted winrate as BTN 3-bettor and didn't find disparities on observed winrate.

I outed a plo botring on ipoker some months before the stars one. If running a couple std deviations above EV is any indication of collusion on plo, ipoker botring was blatantly colluding. I didn't have means to prove this that time as I was getting heavily ridiculed even about the idea there are bots on plo.

When it comes to the busted Stars botring they weren't running above all-in-EV as whole; actually a bit under. This made me think they were not colluding at the time.
However having a negative all-in-EV and running massive above -one of the most profitable spot on PLO -raises questions.
I am interested about the spots they are manipulating their all-in EV to the other way. (if this is the case)

For now, people need to stop calling this instance "botting". It's suspected collusion and doesn't not necessarily involve automated play.

If pastas hypothesis is in fact true it is virtually impossible to do this without software help.

Also pastas hypothesis is drawn from irregularities of past confirmed bot play so botting/ AI-helped playing is not an irrelevant twist here.

Omaha offers enough style differences that the game can be played with a negative or positive red-line.

Has Pasta found a "cheat catcher" graph? Or is this gragh common in both the found bots and legitimate positive red line players? For this discussion the positive blue-line (down red-line) players need to be omited. Did Pasta include any positive blue-line accounts in those graphs? We're the legitimate Finnish players positive blue-line (red-line downish) accounts, thereby mixing apples and oranges?

On side note, positive blue-line players often look at the actions of positive red-line players as weird. In the Stars thread many positive blue-line players had these bots noted as weak regs.

there's a big difference in "positive red line regs" and "positive red line in 3bet pots in position regs". The ones he outed have a positive red line in the filter he used, but a negative overall redline.

The question is are we all in agreement that this a "cheat catcher" stat?

Grethe appears (and I'm trying to speak for him) to think this doesn't nessicarily amounts to a "cheat catcher" stat. Also freewilly12 said he had 3M hand database so I was wondering if he had any other cases in database of stat to help find non-discovered bots or see how often this stat produces a false positive.

legit regs:


ex botring:


new ones:


I assume at least now no1 disagrees with me about those accounts anymore, and y i can't be sure if those were botting or what, colluding at least.

but we're just about to get started this thing yet. there's at least 20 accounts more to bust, could be 30. i've shared those and some stuff and nicks with other regs now, and i'll reply to your messages when i do start next things at this project, if i havent replied yet.

there's so much to do now, and i have own life too, so please be patient.

ty for your help and support all, and i do still need more databises, older/higher stakes=better. i don't use those for taking an advatage/even on my gaming pc.

there's lot of another stats too, what i haven't shared with you yet, and some do need decent math skills, wich is ~only subject i can say im good at.