It was an awful run indeed and I said i feel sorry for him for that.
Post wasn't supposed to be/sound harsh and if it does I'm sorry .

You seem to be implying that because we can see how far he ran below AIEV then he must have run above EV in other non-all in spots? I don't think I follow.

exactly, the logic in ur post is ridiculous for someone who is trying to sound like a smartass

CBT... I am pretty sure that I am not a 3bb/100 winner: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...l#post36136940

Especially since like half my action is as low as zoom200 currrently where everybody is lolbad and some "professionals" don't even play 100bb poker.

Chill didn't mean any offense towards you and i was simply talking about the period that you posted and the fact that aiev != winrate.
That's a solid graph .

I didn't say that's the way it went down and nobody will actually know that.
Like he correctly stated the chance of that event happening was somewhere between 0.01 and 0.1% - if he was a ~3-4bb winner during that period.
I would rather think that it's MORE likely that his winrate was lower during that period which doesn't automatically eliminate the possibility that he actually did run 12bb under ev...

The thing was also mainly about aiev having very little to do with expected winrates and not about his abilities, which seem to be good.

Leave the shorstacker alone!

Can only "enjoy" it till july anyways the way it seems.
Actually looking forward playing 100bb+, believe it or not but ss is boring as hell imo .

I think you are getting confused. Variance simulators and the 0.01-0.1% stats posted refer to only AIEV, not true EV.

Let's say True EV = AIEV + the adjusted value from all the unmeasurable forms of luck. We know he has run 12bb/100 below AIEV and he does fall into the % given (provided thats correct I haven't checked). We can't make any assumptions on how he ran in the non all in stuff from this. Therefore it makes no sense to assume his true winrate is lower.

Still enjoy scratching off $5.5, $8.80, and $11 lottery tickets on Sundays.

~$~ ~$~

Gl in the SCOOP AlexKP

they refer to your winrate not to aiev

Yeah my bad, that didn't make any sense. Still I don't think you can make the assumption.

Agree with Chuck.

$ Won = WR + preAI luck + postAI luck
AIEV = WR + preAI luck

Knowing $ Won and AIEV lets just calculate postAI luck, but doesn't let us make any assumptions about preAI luck.

The only certainty we have about the AIev luck is that people who have run hotter than the sun are always going to chime in and bash the guy running very cold, because they never experienced such bad luck first hand and can't believe how bad it can get.

Runs like that are def possible and as we don't have any tools right now to guesstimate the other luck factors, the best we have is the AIev. Sure maybe he ran hotter than the sun in Flopping luck/setup luck and what not but as there is no way for us to know that it's the best we can come up.

running bad sucks... really sick graph bangkok. thats what happens w m everytime i try a solid shot or try move up to highstakes, this stupid things happens...



ok, ev is -80k, but how the **** i can play good when i run terrible at stakes who are 8x my standard grind ?

its depressing...

didnt know you flipped 60 000 hands

crazy

+1

you are a fish on forever heater and you dont are aware... maybe one day you stop floping sets and you will know that.

adiprene, you are an idiot for 3betting TT53r.

and obv flops A42r

Bigger mistake to play 14/10 than 3 betting junk once in a while

urunit111

you surely get scammed here. i think that is 4 standard deviations from zero. do you happen to play on the ongame network?

i notice big winners there playing like absolute rubbish and binking like crazy. e.g. some 100k (8BB/100) winner would 3 bet my utg raise nine handed with a crappy KK** and then push over my reraise for like 125bb. obviously binking the k on the flop. i mean this is fkn beginners error, the same guy minreraises me with 9642ds (even though i really 4 bet lots) to obv flop a 953 flop and make a straight on the river.

Pretty conclusive I think we can all agree, finally closing the book on whether there is unlawful play happening on OnGame...

can't tell if serious post

Sigh if I've somehow been levelled...