contrary to popular belief poker players don't keep their net worth on one site, and their balance is not whatever PTR says they are up since 2009

sounds ridiculous, I don't buy it

I couldn't tell you for sure. I have been playing since the summer of 04 when I started playing $10 SNG's so my databases spawn many computers and I don't have any my older stuff available to me. My main game was also LHE for a couple of years. I am around 122 (100bb) buyins and $157,000 below EV since Dec. 08. when the big downswing that kick started all this occurred which covers my last 1,227,330 hands of omaha. The breakdown in stakes in terms of hands is

25/50- 3683 hands
10/20- 16,363 hands
5/10- 100,944 hands
3/6- 142,959 hands
2/4- about 520,000 hands
1/2 about 360,000 hands
.5/1 about 72,000 hands

So average buy-in i'm down in EV being $1286 over that 122 buy in's is also whats really a kick in the balls. Since about 2/3 of my play is at 1/2 and 2/4 and I also played a ton of the 20-50 BB tables when they were around that figure is just so bleh. That in and of itself sucks but its the running into the top end of people's ranges, esp. when playing higher that seems also very disproportional to me during this stretch. I just play hands that nobody misplays where I should be fistpumping to get it in and run into the tippy top of ppl.'s ranges. Anyway i'm sounding too whiny so i'll wrap it up.

fu ($590)
x ($1416)

x posts (SB) $3
fu posts (BB) $6

Dealt to x 6c 9h Ac 6d
x raises to $18
fu raises to $54
x calls $36

FLOP($108) 7c,Jc,6h
fu checks
x checks

TURN($108) 2h
fu bets $72
x raises to $186
fu raises to $536 (AI)
x calls $350

River Kh

fu shows As Ks Kd 2d


x shows Ac 6c 6d 9h


fu wins $1179



fu

statistically speaking, being down 120 bi's over 1 mil+ hands is insignificant and far from a huge run bad.

dont stare the gift horse in the mouth imo

Not to take anything from your downswing but there was a bug in HM's EV calculation when involving multiway allins and if you haven't reimported your pre-2010 hands your EV might be off.

this xwink guy is a bit of a loose goose

sounds ****tay none the less.

I kind of miss the dark ages of poker when the only other program you started with Party Poker was Napster/Kazaa/Grokster, a 3-bet meant aces, and a wild player was the guy shoving a pair + nut fl draw

Yes i understand it's not a crazy outlier statistically in a vaccum. It's everything combined. Having the 122 buys-ins = $157,000 with that distribution of hands played is pretty far out there though. I am not gonna pretend like I really know how to quantify how much out an outlier that is it is probably moreso that buy ins I would imagine. Who knows though.

And the 85 buy ins in the last 380kish hands since Sep. 1 with that similar skew towards always running bad player higher is probably more of an outlier. The point is running poorly in general EV wise, and then running terribly at the highest stakes you play over 1+ mil hands samples is bad recipe in poker. And that's not even touching the multitude of other ways you can run poorly in PLO, many of which I also feel have been small to medium outlier's over the sample. So all of it added up is a pretty big find ****. And I don't think the combination of things together is quite so common at all over samples this big.

Again I appreciate the insight you have offered to me. Every situation of variables is unique in poker and in life. I don't really care to split hairs about how bad or not bad this stretch is. What it comes down to is if I continue to improve, get that red line moving up consistently the green line should follow at some point. I work hard enough and live conservativley enough right now that not running below EV for any several month stretch will allow me to quickly build a nice cushion for my BR and put some extra living expenses aside which would be really nice for me psychologically. It would be very nice to have that happen. Posting those graphs has not helped at all thus far so I am going to stop talking and thinking about it. I tried to answer all your questions as I honestly as I could w/o self serving bias to the extent that it's possible for someone in my position to do.

Hey paul thanks for heads up. So the bug was fixed Jan of 2010? Do I have to purge the hands from my DB before importing the new ones? FWIW the hands that would affect hands over the 1.2 million hand segment I alluded to but not any of the graphs I posted. All my play from Feb. 1 2009 to 2010 would be the hands I would need to reimport since I had stars send me the hands older than that to import into this DB. Nonetheless I am glad to know about the bug, I never want to be working with incorrect info. It's kind of funny to note that that stretch of hands I would need to reimport is the only medium stretch where I am over EV in any way in this sample haha

you know couldn't win a hand in PLO to save my life.
running 400K below EV, figured hey i'll try a game with less variance.

rbk, im drunk hater right now, but zzz for last 2 hands you posted

I think in mid-2009, HM fixed the bug and implemented a "Fix EV for current player" option, which not many people knew about and for some reason isn't included in current versions.

Also, (I just found this) there was another EV bug in HM versions 1.11.05 - 1.11.05d, which were released in mid to late-2010. So you would need to reimport all the hands that you imported during those versions.

lol

he is a high stakes limit player who just bumhunt plo hu. i did huge flips w him.

Wow it's pretty gross that I didn't know that. It seems like a lot of work to mess do all that cuz I randomly had stars send me hands to import throughout 08 and 09 and I would have to reimport a bunch of other hands as well. I'll probably get around to doing that when I get a new Desktop and wanna get a database on there anyway. Thanks for the heads up though, was totally unaware of any of that.

could just not look at it eh? all about the next hand.

i guess this is where i find out that im actually a losing player

I've literally driven myself to the point of insanity worrying about AIEV. It was at my worst when I was going through a long period (300K hands) of getting my money in bad but feeling like I was doing nothing wrong. I felt completely worthless as a poker player and lost complete confidence in what I was doing. Nowadays, I can't stop myself caring about AIEV but I've realised its so pointless and ridiculous that I just make a joke about it all. I'm just always going to find coolers way more tilting than suck-outs. The worst are the rumprammers of the world who check-call, check-call, lead flush card on river. ARRRGGGHHHH!!!

All I know is I'm above EV lifetime so its very likely I've run hot in my career and my AIEV generally trends upwards so I'm probably putting myself in +EV spots. I didn't need an AIEV line to tell me that though.

On a side-note, I just played a 7637 hand session over a 700 minute period over 12 tables with about 400k in play at 25/50. I lost $57k. Pretty sure I have a gambling problem.

i got out of that mess at 2500 hands, -18k I guess that means we have the same loserate

man xwink is playing 3 different top 10 online PLOers at once.. can't be a good idea no matter who you are

kimokh 10-tabling 25/50...and winning 280K in the last few days, this is mindblowing! Is someone else playing on this account?

nice post gavz, those pstars games look nuts.

xwink playing a good match with PA right now... oh and gump too. No idea how he does it (or why, for that matter). I've never been able to play multiple opponents like that and have to agree with 4cardg, can't be the best idea.

The good ole 490,000 hand bait and switch maneuver... priceless

Is this true? I know there's a lot of variance, but it seems to me, that the probability of a winning player (5bb/100, say) being down after 1M+ hands is very small.

I'm a terrible statistician, so I dont want to do the calcs, but this is just what my intuition tells me.