You are wasting your one time because they all will have access to plasma from donors with antibodies. I would not be surprised if Trump already gets plasma infusions to prevent him from catching it.

Totally worth risking your life to get that smooth fade between the bald stuff and the laurel wreath of hair he has left.

Should be posted on Facebook with the caption "How many things can you find that are wrong with this picture?"

I appreciate the explanation! It sound like the graph is assuming that only one person starts out infected when the R0 is measured for the purpose of the graph. In which case, the outcome infection % would be close to 0 in a large population when R0=1.

But we now have a situation where R0 might be close to 1 under social distancing restrictions, but a substantial % of the population was already infected before the restrictions were put in place. In this situation, a very large percentage of the population will end up infected even if we get R0 a bit <1. (If R0=.9 and 10% start infected, those 10% will infect another 9%, who in turn will infect another 8.1%, who will then infect 7.29%, etc. The outcome is going to effectively be herd immunity.)

If we got R0 -much- <1 (e.g. .3), we could still eradicated the virus fairly quickly. But this would require much stronger restrictions. It might be easier to implement this sort of thing if we were simultaneously issuing immunity certificates to those who are already recovered, and the could do the work of opening up and running the economy while everyone else (especially vulnerable populations) were under stricter lockdown. Given that it sounds like it is much more feasible to do widespread serology tests than active infection tests, this might also be more realistic than a universal tracing program.

I really appreciate how enthusiastic you are but again, we cannot safely commit to this at this present time. this was posted today and remains problematic

also, it's still not known that just because you have antibodies, that those antibodies will protect you from a mutated version of the virus rendering your certificates worthless. until we know more the play is lowering the R0 as much as possible. if data/info changes then I'm all for changing the plan. unless I'm missing something?

Ah I see what you were wrestling with now. Yes, when we reach “herd immunity” it just means that on average most infected cases won’t find anyone vulnerable to infect and the virus will die out. In certain pockets, like say WSOP attendees, a much higher percentage of people might get infected than the world population at large.

There is also a phenomenon called “overshoot” which says that if the virus is propagating rapidly, it won’t stop at 1/R0 but may go to a much higher percentage of the population before it stops. It’s another argument for flattening the curve.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/o....co/DdqwNjP8a6

This one is a bit more dense, but very informative and also speaks to the earlier “why do lockdowns at all?” Discussion

https://benjaminmoll.com/wp-content/.../SIR_notes.pdf

Would YOU really recommend we huff paint too before posting on the internet? It would at least make reading your posts a little more palatable.

This.

I think everyone has some family members that feel like you're treating them like they have full-blown AIDS back in 1982 or something. They think social distancing only applies to people you don't know and if you do it to family, it's offensive to them.

FYP

Numbers continuing to trend in the right direction.








The trend line on the deaths would look better if New York hadn't dumped 700 old deaths into their daily reports this week. If nothing like that happens again I think we might see the 7 day average come down to around 1500 within the next week or so. But there are still a variety of states which look like the might just be on a plateau instead of actually coming down, and that could get really ugly in the next couple months.

I enjoy getting into arguments on FB with people that say they have lost their constitutional rights.

wow san francisco has 33 covid deaths, and it has the highest population density in the united states except for nyc.

and people think cuomo has done a good job lol

constitution granted the right to own slaves and commit genocide. **** the constitution

It's amazing what happens when you combine good science-based policy with a population that actually takes it seriously.

NYC just got hit too hard too soon. Also their strain might have been a lot more contagious.

Would be nice if the current POTUS didn't dismantle the pandemic response team and ignore warnings in 2018, but heh, he's just one guy and a stable genius, to boot.

and all the parks and beaches are open in sf. people just act responsibly and don't crowd.

IQ vs deaths let's see the graph.

Oh no ecuador what are you doing?

Florida, stop it.

4/1 - 5157 (^26%)(1072 deaths)
4/2 - 6061 (^18%)(904 deaths)
4/3 - 7400 (^22%)(1339 deaths)
4/4 - 8500 (^15%)(1100 deaths)
4/5 - 9666 (^14%)(1166 deaths)
4/6 - 11,000 (^14%)(1334 deaths)
4/7 - 12,931 (^18%)(1931 deaths)
4/8 - 14,831 (^15%)(1900 deaths)
4/9 - 16,720 (^13%)(1889 deaths)
4/10 - 18,817(^13%)(2097 deaths)
4/11 - 20,650(^10%)(1833 deaths)
4/12 - 22,157(^7%)(1507 deaths)
4/13 - 23,674(^7%)(1517 deaths)
4/14 - 26,094(^10%)(2420 deaths)
4/15 - 28,605(^10%)(2511 deaths)
4/16 - 34,845(^22%)(6240 deaths)*
*-4k previous deaths tacked on
4/17 - 37,308(^7%)(2463 deaths)
4/18 - 39,116(^5%)(1808 deaths)
4/19 - 41,187(^5%)(2071 deaths)
4/20 - 42,965(^4%)(1778 deaths)
4/21 - 45,435(^6%)2470 deaths)
4/22 - 48,035(^6%)(2600 deaths)
4/23 - 50,451(^5%)(2416 deaths)
4/24 - 52,478(^4%)(2027 deaths)
4/25 - 54,177(^3%)(1699 deaths)
4/26 - 55,512(^2.5%)(1335 deaths)
4/27 - 56,722(^2%)(1210 deaths)
4/28 - 59,061(^4%)(2339 deaths)
4/29 - 61,568(^4%)(2507 deaths)
4/30 - 63,836(^3.5%)(2268 deaths)
5/1 - 65,708(^3%)(1872 deaths)
5/2 - 67,172(^2%)(1464 deaths)
5/3 - 68,390(^1.8%)(1218 deaths)
5/4 - 69,788(^2%)(1398 deaths)
5/5 - 72133(^3%)(2345 deaths)
5/6 - 74,687(3.5%)(2554 deaths)
5/7 - 76,650(2.5%)(1963 deaths)
5/8 - 78,318(^2%)(1668 deaths)
5/9 - 79,814(^2%)(1498 deaths)

Over 100k well before end of May. Haircuts for everyone.

Watching Silicon Valley S4 E7 "The Patent Troll" from 2017 (whole series free on the Roku channel) at minute 5 he says (talking about their app becoming a bit more popular), "I mean, we may not be a global epidemic yet, but we've leapt from bat saliva to humans and we've just killed our first few villagers".

so much this, cuomo has been objectively terrible and yet because he's good on camera...

still waiting on the junta

Stuff like this legit pisses me off, but hot mic is great:

i like my hot mics with a side of magic

A new study finds that temperature and urban density have no significant effect on transmission. Humidity has a modest effect.

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/ear...00920.full.pdf

So this video has been going pretty viral, to the point that this woman is going to be on Good Morning America tomorrow morning.

I anticipate that they're going to make an absolute fool out of her, but she'll be far too stupid to realize it and consider the interview a YUUUGE success in her ongoing fight to preserve her Constitutional right to not be inconvenienced.

For those who haven't seen it, she recorded herself at Trader Joe's going Maximum Karen on the staff who refuse to ring her up because she won't wear a mask.

The most tilt inducing part is (and the misspellings are intentional here): "These people are Gestappling me. I've been Gestappled."

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk6nn-ZLFFE

I’m not sure what the intended message of the link you posted was. It described a doctor in his 70’s suffering from severe symptoms of covid. I’d think this would support an argument in favor of of stricter social distancing restrictions for vulnerable populations. Certainly no one should be given an immunity certificate until they are no longer actually sick and they shown to be producing antibodies.

And it sounds like you are making an argument that we should not allow people who we know are immune to the virus to participate fully in society because they might contract some hypothetical other version of the virus that is currently unknown to us. Under this logic, everyone might as well just stay inside the rest of their lives because they might catch some virus that no one knows about yet.

Right now, we need to be fighting the virus that has already killed 80,000 Americans, and continues to kill almost 2,000 more every day. We know that almost 4 million people have been confirmed to contract this virus, and there have been zero confirmed cases of reinfection among them. Whether they or anyone else might contract some other virus in the future is a question that we should definitely address, but only after the current emergency has passed.

This is interesting to me. I've been quite surprised at how low medical literacy is in the general population. And i don't mean that as in "people who aren't in healthcare like i am" but more "people who aren't from Rochester, MN like I am where we all grow up immersed in this stuff".

I think i understand alternative medicine a bit better now. People don't even try or care to learn how their blood pressure medication works; it's functionally magic to them. Alternative medicine is functionally also magic and the person selling it to you isn't busy and stressed out (from actually saving lives).