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The Coronavirus Prep/Sweat Thread Part Omicron: Winter is coming AGAIN.

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07-23-2020 , 12:59 AM

#11201

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 101,163

And is that always constant or does it go up and down based on flu season or who knows what else?

One of the Atlanta hospitals said they were almost full very early on. Then when you looked into it, they had lost a whole wing to fire recently. So I guess that jaded me to hospitals talking about capacity.

I don't blame the hospitals for sounding the alarm early and often. I just want to know when we get to field hospitals and really desperate measures. Or maybe they're avoiding those now by just turning people away. But also one of the early lessons was just sticking people on vents right away did more harm than good for a lot of them. It's all very amorphous.

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07-23-2020 , 01:40 AM

#11202

5 south

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,825

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

The fact that ICU's can be over 100% capacity makes me wonder what capacity really means. Not trying to minimize. But every time these hospitals say they're almost full - does that mean people in hallways, field hospitals coming soon, turning people away?

Or does it mean you open up another wing and have to pay some traveling ICU nurses a shitload, and everyone gets crappier care? Which is still bad but when trying to filter through the noise it gets confusing.

Also would like to know what % of ICU patients are COVID.

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07-23-2020 , 04:59 AM

#11203

NimiShimi

newbie

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5 south

Also would like to know what % of ICU patients are COVID.

No one knows. At least in my area, it takes up to 12 days to get a test back. A patient could be either back home or six feet under by the time the test comes back. This country could have done better. It's too late. OR should that be in the prediction thread?

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07-23-2020 , 09:39 AM

#11204

razorbacker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 7,747

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

Well, we finally have a large and distributed sample study on seroprevalance, and it looks like earlier estimates of 10 times as many actual cases as confirmed ones is about right.

Just to head it off at the pass, that doesn't get close to herd immunity anywhere, though NYC is up to about 23%.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

Could be as low as 20% using a heterogenous model.

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07-23-2020 , 09:42 AM

#11205

razorbacker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 7,747

Quote:

Originally Posted by NimiShimi

Here is a news station in Lubbock that provides daily updates for their county. This is the kind of information we need nationwide.

https://www.kcbd.com/2020/03/21/city...-cases-covid-/

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07-23-2020 , 10:11 AM

#11206

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,032

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

Based on this estimate and some back-of-the-envelope math, the overall IFR in the USA looks like its about 0.036%.

This is just a super uncomplicated 145K USA#9 deaths divided by 40.4 million estimated cases (based on 10x the confirmed number of 4.04 million), so there's obviously lots of caveats like a lot of those confirmed cases might still die and, of course, that 10x is just an estimate. Still it gives us a ballpark.

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07-23-2020 , 11:29 AM

#11207

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 101,163

That's actually 0.36%.

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07-23-2020 , 12:55 PM

#11208

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,032

Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

That's actually 0.36%.

Yes. Sorry. Fat-fingered it, and too late to edit.

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07-23-2020 , 06:50 PM

#11209

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,436

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

so there's obviously lots of caveats like a lot of those confirmed cases might still die and, of course, that 10x is just an estimate. Still it gives us a ballpark.

Not might die. It's with 100% certainty. If someone 0 people died from here on out, it would be the most bizarre and inexplicable event in our history.

The true ifr will never be known. Just too many variables, and too much data already lost. Too many changes over time for how cases are counted (and methods differing state to state) and too many unreported deaths.

It's between .5% and 3%. Who the f knows.

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07-23-2020 , 07:56 PM

#11210

filthyvermin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 63,363

they were saying 20% needed icu. i guess that means that 20% would die without icu?

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07-23-2020 , 08:09 PM

#11211

NickMPK

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,985

Quote:

Originally Posted by filthyvermin

they were saying 20% needed icu. i guess that means that 20% would die without icu?

I believe the number you are citing is that about 20% of hospitalized patients were admitted to the ICU.

Obviously hospitalizations represent a fairly small fraction of cases, and cases represent a fairly small fraction of infections.

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07-23-2020 , 08:43 PM

#11212

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,032

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

Based on this estimate and some back-of-the-envelope math, the overall IFR in the USA looks like its about 0.36%.

This is just a super uncomplicated 145K USA#9 deaths divided by 40.4 million estimated cases (based on 10x the confirmed number of 4.04 million), so there's obviously lots of caveats like a lot of those confirmed cases might still die and, of course, that 10x is just an estimate. Still it gives us a ballpark.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Down

It says a lot might die. It's also possible that only a (relative) few might die. It is both correct and also not something that I claimed that there's any chance that none of them will die.

I agree that we will likely not get a 100% accurate IFR, but it can be narrowed down, and your definitive claim that it is between .5 and 3% is... not based on anything. If I had to set an over/under for long term IFR, 0.6% would likely be it, though I don't yet have a lot of confidence in that number. Still, I'm definitely not confident that it's over 0.5%, and I'd hammer the hell out of the under on 3%.

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07-23-2020 , 09:57 PM

#11213

Everlastrr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 12,897

USA#39 total deaths >1100 the last 3 days.

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07-24-2020 , 12:00 AM

#11214

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,531

What will be interesting will be looking at the total death count in the US (all causes) at the end of the year and see what the delta is to 2.8 million.

If it's significantly higher, even the flu bros who argue that more deaths are attributed to covid that shouldn't be won't have much of an argument.

Last edited by Mr Spyutastic; 07-24-2020 at 12:00 AM. Reason: Well one would think. Who knows what they'll come up with then.

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07-24-2020 , 07:46 AM

#11215

5 south

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,825

Quote:

Originally Posted by NimiShimi

That's on your city/county/state not the country.
Know someone in LA last week that felt some chills/sore throat last week, took a test the next day and results the following day (positive btw).

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07-24-2020 , 01:33 PM

#11216

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,436

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickMPK

20% of cases lead to hospitalizations. 5% of cases lead to ICU. So 25% of hospitalizations lead to ICU (5/20).

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07-24-2020 , 02:22 PM

#11217

5 south

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,825

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Down

20% of cases lead to hospitalizations. 5% of cases lead to ICU. So 25% of hospitalizations lead to ICU (5/20).

20% hospitalization rate seems huge. Do you have a cite for that?

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07-24-2020 , 03:21 PM

#11218

marknfw

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 16,230

19% hospitalized is what my county is reporting. 32% for over 65 age group. I definitely didn't think it was that high. Tarrant County. Tx.

http://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/publ...kname=COVID-19

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07-24-2020 , 04:08 PM

#11219

NickMPK

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,985

Quote:

Originally Posted by Double Down

20% of cases lead to hospitalizations. 5% of cases lead to ICU. So 25% of hospitalizations lead to ICU (5/20).

These figures seem reasonable to me. I have also read that about 1 in 3 ICU patients end up dying, which would square with the 1-2% total CFR we are currently seeing in the US.

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07-24-2020 , 05:36 PM

#11220

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,951

Put a ****ing mask on.

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07-24-2020 , 09:22 PM

#11221

THAY3R

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 36,550

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07-25-2020 , 12:21 AM

#11222

dmatz327

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 2,970

He couldn't wear a mask for that video lol. Sure his camera man is loving it.

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07-25-2020 , 12:38 AM

#11223

5 south

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,825

Quote:

Originally Posted by marknfw

19% hospitalized is what my county is reporting. 32% for over 65 age group. I definitely didn't think it was that high. Tarrant County. Tx.

http://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/publ...kname=COVID-19

24,562 positive cases, 702 confirmed COVID occupied beds = 2.8% or are we assuming all 4,171 occupied beds are covid?

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07-25-2020 , 04:13 AM

#11224

Double Down

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,436

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5 south

20% hospitalization rate seems huge. Do you have a cite for that?

CDC.gov

It's been common k knowledge, and easy to find that the estimates are 20% hospitalization, 5% icu, and .5-1% death.

Quote

07-25-2020 , 04:29 AM

#11225

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 101,163

I think you're conflating confirmed cases with actual cases.

20% hospitalization and 5% ICU applies to confirmed cases.

.5-1% IFR applies to all cases, which are very roughly around 10x confirmed cases.