Free suzz.

I found the mlb antibody study interesting. While clearly not a representative sample of the US population, the testing methodology did avoid the problem of people self-selecting to be in these antibody studies because 1) they were curious if they had the virus because they were recently sick, or 2) they are more active and 'out and about' and less likely to be fully quarantining at home.

Results are not encouraging for the herd immunity bros.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-mlb-employees

+q

It is a bit surprising that only 1% of any diverse population would have antibodies. But I wish they had reported how many of those people were already confirmed positive cases (from an active infection test).

I also don’t think they completely avoided self-selection problems given that only 5,600 of the 10,000 tests they sent out were actually returned.

NYC folks have done amazingly well with social distancing considering the density. You can't compare NYC to SF, Brooklyn alone has 3x the people, SF is not a high rise city.

There are quite a few states where the number of deaths to date is consistent with less than 1% cumulative infections.

Sure, but for the most part I wouldn’t describe those states as having a “diverse population”. With the exception of Hawaii, which is uniquely isolated in its own way, they are almost all very rural, low population density state. In contrast, I would expect a sample of MLB employees to be spread across many major US cities.

I really hope anybody fat in this thread has actively tried to lose weight since start of lockdown

I've lost 23 pounds in the past 2 months. It's easy to stick to a diet when not going out.

i've gained a **** ton of weight

pretty sure that is standard for most people.

I've lost weight 12 lbs. I just keep relatively healthy stuff in the house and try to do the exercise bike at least every other day.

My problems were take out, office snacks (thankfully we don't have much) and the occasional party where I eat like 400 g of carbs worth of food and beer.

I’ve definitely been doing a lot more exercise, but it’s somewhat coincidental, since I got a new treadmill shortly before the pandemic started.

I was maybe 20 pounds overweight, and I think maybe I’ve lost 8 pounds. (I was 200 lbs, would like to get to 180, now ~192.)

Under normal circumstances, I think I would have lost more given the amount of new exercise I’m doing, but I’m also probably eating a little more now and definitely burning fewer calories in my routine the rest of the day.

Well I’m glad it is a wake up call for some

btw people saying to not go for herd immunity because it won’t work because people don’t make antibodies or whatever, what’s your solution? If herd immunity does not work, vaccines won’t work

Yeah, this is me too - weight down to lowest it's been for 10-12 years.

Gonna start back doing some hiking this week (our rules have changed here in UK from Wednesday) so likely gonna lose even more then.

Juk

Normal flu mutates enough to overcome herd immunity, why we can keep catching it. We still have a vaccine for it.

yes a very limited vaccine, so everyone would still be at risk of getting covid 19 with a vaccine like that, someone in this thread is scared of getting it because of the very low % chance of permanent lung damage, will he get the vaccine and still stay home?

The thing is, you obviously have no intellectual honesty in actually hearing arguments about herd immunity.

There is another strategy, its in the world now being used to great effect. Anyone who was actually interested in solutions would know this because they are hardly hard to find. You are not interested in these solutions because they involve a phase of intense lockdown.

The telling thing is, to evince that this is true, I could use a graph.

A graph you have already seen.

1. Tight Lockdown.
2. Low number of new cases.
3. Enabling effective track and trace.
4. Enabling relaxed lockdown.
5. As evinced by numerous countries that have new case rates per day in single figures.

If you're struggling to lose weight during lockdown this should do the trick: nasty strippers delivering food at drive thru

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...kdown-11986446

Yes, it's a factor - but the main thing is making sure a lot of people don't have it. As the chart you're replying to shows, if 10% of the population have it when you switch to R0.9, then it basically stops at around 35% immune / 65% susceptible.

If you do that when 1% have it, then it's different:
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 0.9 1.000 99.000 0.891 0.891
2 0.9 0.891 98.109 0.883 0.787
3 0.9 0.787 97.322 0.876 0.689
4 0.9 0.689 96.633 0.870 0.599
99 0.9 0.000 92.633 0.834 0.000

You finish with only 7.4% infected and 92.633 still immune.

If people are interested, here are a few more for different R0 levels from the same spreadsheet (with really high R0s, modelling it as a discrete generations starts to cause problems - so with R0 of 20, 5% infected shouldn't actually infect everyone else, as towards the end of their infectious period they would be running into more and more newly infected people and not just uninfected people).
R0=1.1
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 1.1 1.000 99.000 1.089 1.089
2 1.1 1.089 97.911 1.077 1.173
3 1.1 1.173 96.738 1.064 1.248
4 1.1 1.248 95.490 1.050 1.311
5 1.1 1.311 94.179 1.036 1.358
99 1.1 0.000 75.461 0.830 0.000
(Herd immunity strategy with R0=1.1 means 24.5% get it)

R0=1.3
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 1.3 1.000 99.000 1.287 1.287
2 1.3 1.287 97.713 1.270 1.635
3 1.3 1.635 96.078 1.249 2.042
4 1.3 2.042 94.036 1.222 2.496
5 1.3 2.496 91.540 1.190 2.971
99 1.3 0.000 53.394 0.694 0.000
(Herd immunity with R0=1.3 means 46.7% get it)

R0=2
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 2 1.000 99.000 1.980 1.980
2 2 1.980 97.020 1.940 3.842
3 2 3.842 93.178 1.864 7.160
4 2 7.160 86.018 1.720 12.317
5 2 12.317 73.701 1.474 18.156
99 2 0.000 12.618 0.252 0.000
(Herd immunity strategy with R0=2 means 87.3% get it)

As an alternative - let's imagine we've got 1% infected and 49% have already had it, we declare "herd immunity" and remove the controls. What happens next depends on the value of R0.

R0=4
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 4 1.000 50.000 2.000 2.000
2 4 2.000 48.000 1.920 3.840
3 4 3.840 44.160 1.766 6.783
4 4 6.783 37.377 1.495 10.141
5 4 10.141 27.236 1.089 11.048
6 4 11.048 16.188 0.648 7.154
7 4 7.154 9.034 0.361 2.585
8 4 2.585 6.449 0.258 0.667
9 4 0.667 5.782 0.231 0.154
99 4 0.000 5.583 0.223 0.000
(In the end 94.6% get it - though the discrete generations model is possibly breaking down here)

R0=3
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 3 1.000 50.000 1.500 1.500
2 3 1.500 48.500 1.455 2.183
3 3 2.183 46.318 1.390 3.033
4 3 3.033 43.285 1.299 3.938
5 3 3.938 39.347 1.180 4.648
99 3 0.000 17.091 0.513 0.000
(In the end 82.9% get it)

R0=2.5
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 2.5 1.000 50.000 1.250 1.250
2 2.5 1.250 48.750 1.219 1.523
3 2.5 1.523 47.227 1.181 1.799
4 2.5 1.799 45.428 1.136 2.043
5 2.5 2.043 43.385 1.085 2.216
99 2.5 0.000 27.291 0.682 0.000
(In the end 82.7% get it)

R0=2
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 2 1.000 50.000 1.000 1.000
2 2 1.000 49.000 0.980 0.980
3 2 0.980 48.020 0.960 0.941
4 2 0.941 47.079 0.942 0.886
5 2 0.886 46.193 0.924 0.819
99 2 0.000 40.331 0.807 0.000
(In the end 59.7% get it)


R0=1.5
Stg R0 infected susceptible, R new infections
1 1.5 1.000 50.000 0.750 0.750
2 1.5 0.750 49.250 0.739 0.554
3 1.5 0.554 48.696 0.730 0.405
4 1.5 0.405 48.291 0.724 0.293
5 1.5 0.293 47.998 0.720 0.211
99 1.5 0.000 47.261 0.709 0.000
(In the end 52.7% get it)

So the overall point of the above is - that what herd immunity means is itself a function of the expected R0 after it's all over.

If people are imagining "after this is all over" to look like how things were before, then herd immunity means something like 80-90% already immune (realistic only though mass vaccinations). Otherwise, the question is how can society run with an R0 of less than 1, or less than 1.2 or something? Will masks and 360 degree testing of all confirmed cases be enough? Hope so.

Anyway, this is why I keep saying I fully expect to still be wearing a mask in 2020.

I'm pretty sure it will work. Even if you get a mutated version then there will be some partial immunity. The problem is a lot of people will die while herd immunity is being established.

Lektor bringing some excellent posting after a few questionable days of this thread.

I've lost about ten pounds, although I did not start off overly heavy: 5' 10", 182#.

I've been walking every day and averaged 6 miles a day so far in May.

lol I'm BAFFLED that suzzer is a shut-in loser with no spouse or family of his own. Baffled I tell you!

f*ckin clown is gonna die alone whether he gets COVID or not lol

We all die alone douchabag.

Wow , that’s great HT! Keep up the great work. Do u take a dog with u?