"what message do you have for children watching at home?"

<insert long drawn out incoherent potato response>

Always entertaining.

What would you say?

Doubt it kills more than 30k in the US this year. Most being people that would have died inside of a year anyway. Not sure if it was the social distancing, it mutated into a less lethal version, or we overreacted but it doesn't seem like this situation was as bad as I thought a week ago.

Notsureifserious.jpg

What in the **** are you basing this on?

We'll be at 30k deaths by Easter.

I don't know where you are coming up with this but it seems worse to me. 51 doctors dead in Italy today. deaths in Louisiana more than 40% in one day...NYC claiming apocalyptic atmosphere...gonna run out of bed space and ventilators by early April...sure its not bad????

Florida hasn't even been hit yet and they are still under no restrictions, I don't see how they don't blow up to 100s of deaths a day just on their own.

100,000 deaths in the next few months don't seem unrealistic at this point.

edit: I'm generally an optimist about things, but most doctors and scientists are acting like things are going to really hit a boiling point in like 3 weeks. What happens over the course of that that 3 weeks?

Being POTUS is beyond my experience but probably would be something different than this:

Hey, was wondering is someone could answer something I'm not understanding about the timeline of the disease.

It's been well known that the pre-symptomatic period is 2-14 days, with an average of 5 days.

But for someone who has the disease and has a totally asymptomatic experience the whole time, what is the total possible time with the disease?

Put another way, how long would someone have to self quarantine and have zero symptoms before they could know with 100% confidence that they don't have it?

Ok maybe 30k is low but it seems to be slowing down in Washington State already. Let's see what happens in NYC over the next week.

From what I've read it sounds like 3 weeks. But some people seem to drag on for over a month.

https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/t...about-covid-19

So I guess usually 3 weeks from onset of symptoms but could drag on a long time. No idea if that can also happen to people who never had symptoms.

i feel florida alone could change this. but everything's heading towards disaster anyway.

So with 100k confirmed cases, we're at 1 out of every 3,500 people confirmed infected? Lots of room for numbers to grow.

Washington has been slowing down for a while. The question is will the rest of the US look more like Italy or Washington? NYC is looking like Italy. I don't have a lot of hope for all the morbidly obese people in the South either.

Nothing at the state level, but some local places are under standard stay home orders, like Orlando. I talked to someone in West Palm Beach today, he said they weren't real restricted but Miami is shelter in place.

Seems like a dumb way to do it.

Trip report from going outside for the first time in 4 days:

1. Grocery stores are pretty much stocked with everything except rice, hand sanitizer and TP. I bought a giant softsoap refill that should last me through the apocalypse.
2. Beach and walkway blocked off, people still walking along the side of the sidewalk but keeping ok distance.
3. Why are ice cream shops and fancy beer stores still open? Those seem like really fertile breeding grounds - especially the counter at an ice cream shop.
4. Subway seems like a bad idea for the same reason to me. Flat cold, counters where breath can settle and build up throughout the day.
5. If this isn’t enough to slow the spread in LA/Redondo Beach we’re kinda ****ed. Because I didn’t see much social interaction anywhere except among family members. Other places might be a different story.
6. I want to punch every Boomer I see that gives even a whiff of attitude this is all overblown and unnecessary. Justified?
7. Man my mail piles up fast.

The Villages is gonna get interesting.

FWIW, Washington has 493 new cases today and 619 yesterday.

They are counted with 3,700 total cases. That's 30% of their total case count in the past 2 days alone. They also have more deaths so far today than yesterday (28 vs 15).

Think it's too early to tell how they will end up.

This is a good point. I did an internship in an ECU some years ago, and one of the things I did there was removing mucus from patients with ventilators through the tube with a suction unit (disturbing smell btw). IIRC this had to be done at least once a day, and in the case at hand they probably need to do it more often, because fluid in the lungs is a typical complication with covid. Needless to say this should also pose a high infection risk for healthcare workers.

For the US, the summer can't come soon enough.

I'm pretty sure the warm weather stuff is a "myth" in that it's merely corrollated to an increase in sunlight and humidity as well as people spending less time indoors together

This is an excellent strategy by CNN and Fredo. There's no chance that Trump would just spite let NYC burn down or anything. He's just so easy to play and global leaders have shown that so well yet here are the Dems hurrr Trump you're being rude and not sticking to facts! Stfu and say what you gotta say to him to save your people

Brazil had 80+ weather for months and it's about to turn into a mass grave

their president seems to be dumber than Trump which is seriously impressive

Shipping 50k/day to start seems promising. It's late coming but massive testing is on the horizon.

Isn't that what Cuomo has been doing? (I'm not asking rhetorically. I don't watch his press conferences.)