You don't have to play 200NL to lose $200, if you're starting out and have no real idea what you're doing beyond the basics it's incredibly easy to drop $200 at 50 or even 25NL.

So wait... you're saying that winning 300bb over 4k hands, with an AIEV of basically 0, indicates you're a winning player?

I lost $1200 at 200NL YESTERDAY. This was about 2k hands. I've also had days in which I've won 1000bb, and days in which I've lost 1000bb. Poker has a LOT of variance in it. Any sample under 100k ought to be ignored for utilising results as a statistic until you understand the maths behind it.

I know right, both players need to get to 10nl imo. OP as usual you follow a common theme with noob posters of asking a question with an answer already mind. Why ask if you won't listen?

there are only 3 outcomes of moving up to 50nl
1) you're going to go busto fairly quickly
2) you're going to win, but then the heater will wear off and you'll eventually go busto (this may be coupled with moving up to higher stakes because your crushing lol50nl over some ridiculously small sample size)
3) you actually can play well at 50nl and break even or win

2 of the 3 outcomes are all over this forum, just look around, you'll find them. the other is very rare, but possible.

What do you do when you beat 50nl over a 1k sample? jump up to 500nl zoom because there's no point playing small stakes?

Save yourself the hassle of posting you went busto and stick to 10nl

OP, I think you will find this series of articles interesting:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...18/?highlight=

Chapter 4 addresses your question about moving up.
Chapter 1 addresses making sure you're playing with the right mindset.
Chapter 2 I think will *really* shed light on why you shouldn't move up. Once you understand that poker isn't about getting all in and winning every hand, but rather pushing edges (i.e. any bet that gives you a 60% chance to double your money is a good bet, you just remember that 40 times out of 100 you're going to lose, but the other 60 times out of 100 you win, so you come out ahead in the long run IF YOU HAVE ENOUGH BANKROLL TO RIDE OUT THE SWINGS).

Hope you find them interesting.

Ouch. Move down to 10NL where they respect your overbets imo.

I personally couldn't cope mentally with the kind of variance you have to go through to beat 200NL. Neither could my bankroll tbh.

To give you an idea of just how small 1K is, think about this: You've "only" won 130bb. let's say you sit down, play another 100 hands, get your stack in as a huge favorite and get sucked out on 3 times (if that hasn't happened to you yet, just wait - it will). Now your 130bb up is 170bb down, meaning in the span of a few blinks of the eye you've gone from +13bb/100 to -17bb/100.

Now compare that to a +13bb/100 winrate over 10,000 hands. You've won 1300bb. After your 3-buyin downswing you're "only" down to 1000bb which is still a winrate of 10bb/100.

Now compare that to a +13bb/100 winrate over 50,000 hands. You've won 6500bb. After your 3-buyin downswing you're "only" down to 6200bb which is still a winrate of about 12bb/100 (too lazy to whip out the windows calculator).

Swings are nasty.

Hey guys,
First I'd like to thank everyone who gave me an advice.
just a quick update:

I decided to NOT skip the micros. There's LOTS of things I need to learn and the micros seem like the right place to do it.

My variance has been huge. I have many leaks I need to work on.

Also, now with a bit over 2,4k with 18bb/100.

Good to hear. Hopefully you crush and plug your leaks and move up the stakes. Good luck to you!

+1

Well, thought about what was said on this thread and I'm switching to Bovada due to payout issues with Merge (and the fact I hear the fields are way softer).

Started out on 10 NL for reasons mentioned on this thread and also because most of my bankroll is tied up in Merge in a withdrawal so I can't really effectively use it anyway right now.

All I have to say is it's like beating up on blind children with a baseball bat. I don't think it's necessary, but hey, if they're going to give me 3 streets of value with bottom pair every time and check to me when I don't hit so I can peel free cards or fold if they lead out then great. Easy money.

I love call stations and there's no shortage of them on Bovada so fine I'll put in 30K hands at 10 NL.

Yeah, I've had 12 BI swings in 1k hands. up or down.

Good that you took the advice.
I have to say that your samples are ridiculously small.
Try to think more in terms of 10k samples.
"What is my winrate after 10k hands?"
"What if I play 10k more hands?"

When you get higher, you have to increase this sample size and start thinking in terms of 20k and 50k samples.

Is Pokerstars really that much harder than a site like merge? Even so I can't see myself switching, having money tied up in a site sounds ridiculous Pokerstars is rapid. Just asking out of interest.

you should drop down to nl2 most likely

I'm not sure. I play on Merge. It's pretty damn soft on Merge IMO.

I'm currently playing on Winning Poker Network because Carbon is down for maintenance.

I don't have much of a roll on Black Chip Poker so I'm playing some 2 NL to build up a roll.

2 NL hand: So I isolate KK for 5 BBs because of a limper that likes to call a lot. BB 3 bets me for TWENTY FIVE BBs! I shove over the idiot and he calls with AQs and binks a flush on the turn... ace hits on the river just to rub it in. I get stacked and lose 2 dollas to a dumb whale sitting on 450 BBs. (Dude is running like the sun)
---

I should move up to where they respect my raises like the OP. Nah I'd probably get the same results and go busto from one downswing.

Also I agree above... GO BACK TO 2NL.

*EDIT* Never mind I just took 200 BBs from that monkey whale from the above AQs story!

He called my cold 3 bet with QQ and shoved over my 3/4 bet on a 567r flop and of course I snap call with KK. LIFE is back to normal!

up 100 BBs over 130+ hands. *puts on sunglasses* DEAL WITH IT.

If you can play on Stars, I really, really do not recommend playing on Merge. I bet Stars will get you a check a little bit sooner than 3 months. Also, if you have the ability to play on Stars, that means there's plenty of other sites you can play on too since you're not in the U.S.

This. Ever since Carbon took away 4 NL, so the bottom level is 10 NL, all the awful 4 NL players now play 10 NL so both 10 and 25 are pretty soft.

[QUOTE=thescubatim;47688027]If you can play on Stars, I really, really do not recommend playing on Merge. I bet Stars will get you a check a little bit sooner than 3 months. Also, if you have the ability to play on Stars, that means there's plenty of other sites you can play on too since you're not in the U.S. [quote/]

Also the volume I get from the US poker sites suuuuuucks.

I'm in a crappy situation because I'm playing in Korea (Already told Carbon security team) but I don't know how the **** to deposit on Pokerstars because online gambling is so taboo in Korea. Only foreigners can gamble at live brick & mortar casinos, but I can't find a way to deposit with a Korean bank. Supposedly Pokerstars (2012 reference) said you need to deposit a $5000 bank wire enable to play from Korea. **** THAT!

Korea why you gotta be so lame with your gambling laws ugggh! My in-laws are Korean and they'd have a heart attack if they knew I play poker.

/derail thread finish