www.google.com

Hi TellMeWhy
Here's the link you need...
http://www.gocee.com/poker/HE_Value.htm

There were many many hands played and compiled. Then a table was made showing what percentage of time each specific wins against a various number of opponents. I used that chart when I started out but it's not a starting hand chart.

Anyways, here are some interesting winning percentages...
AA vs 1 - 85.3
AA vs 2 - 73.4
AA vs 3 - 63.9
KK vs 1 - 82.4
QQ vs 1 - 79.9
JJ vs 1 - 77.5
AKs vs 1 - 67.1
AKo vs 1 - 65.4
JTs vs 1 - 77.5
JTs vs 2 - 41.9
JTs vs 3 - 33.8

When you are playing heads up and not against many opponents, I think I was told that you want to have cards which have more card value like KJo and something like 78s is less powerful I'm told. Good luck, Yojimgari

that was based on a simulation of limit holdem, probably? I suspect there are not good simulators for no-limit holdem, since we all know computers don't play it very well. Any simulation is going to range rather far from how actual people play actual hands. There are just a ton of factors people take into account that are changing all the time ("this guy is on tilt now"), and multiplayer games are notoriously resistant to mathematical analysis...

Point being that you have to take that chart with a ginormous grain of salt, particularly as you move into the larger number of players, yadda yadda, you probably knew that. Just a for instance, 22 will probably not be the hand that loses you the most pots, and hopefully not the most money...

can variance be translated into "bad-luck"!?

poker is, by nature, a high-variance game. you've got to keep reminding yourself that the bad luck you're experiencing right now is just part of that variance. if you're playing good poker, you'll have runs of good luck as well. but most importantly, you should focus on winning in the long run.

Possibly, but I don't think it's helpful to assume you're losing because you're "running bad" or whatever. Better to try and figure out if there was a better way to play the hand.

Also, a lot of people chalk up losses to variance when really that isn't the case. Variance is when you're running against the expected outcome. For example, say you get AA all in against KK and you lose. Many players will say they're running bad or on the bad side of variance in this situation. However, they're not looking at the whole picture. If they've only lost a few such situations, but are overall winning 82% of the time, then they are running at expectation. In other words, you are expected to lose 18% of the time. So, losing in that case isn't bad luck, it's the expected outcome.

TY


Now, a lot of people are confused about this, including myself? Can the way I play cause me to run into the bad side of variance?

There's really nothing you can do about variance, but you can control how you play when variance is swinging to either side of the expected outcome over a small sample. This is where controlling tilt comes in. All you can do is play your best game and get the chips in when you're ahead. Poker is a game of exploiting your opponents mistakes, but if you have big leaks yourself, variance is not to blame, as Shick pointed out.

I really like Shick's explanation in his response, so I'll elaborate on his example if I may. Assuming the game is nlhe, AA should win approximately 82% against KK AI PF, and over an infinite number of hands, they will. However, there will be instances over small sample sizes when AA will win more, and other times when they will lose more than expected. I'm not the greatest at the complex maths, so I couldn't tell you what those smaller sample sizes are, but the point really is to understand the probability of it's occurance.

Another simple example I thought of while typing:
If you've ever played a game involving dice you'll certainly understand variance. Over a large sample, any one number will come up once for every six rolls. However, we've all seen the same number rolled three or more times in a row.

people use it this way on the forums a lot, but they're not using the word very carefully.

here's an awesome site that shows the mathematical definition very clearly.

Or in even simpler terms, it's the difference between what you expect and what you get.

Say you have AKo and shove all-in preflop, and get called by 72o. Your hand holds up to win the guy's stack. That's expected right? No, about a third of that is variance. You expected to win only 68% of the pot, because 72o will win 32% of the time. In the long term, you experience about as much positive variance as negative variance.

(Of course, that's using the sloppy definition of variance. Mathematically, variance is signless, and it's not even in the same units as our bets...)

Maybe an LC thread might be better suited (no pun intended) for this, but I still consider myself a beginner in these situtions.

Villain is running at 16/9/2.7 over 3.9k hands. 3bets 3.2% He's a fairly decent reg on the games I play.

I can't recall of any significant history between us, we probably don't try anything too crazy as we're both fairly tight. I'm running around 20/12.


$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($34.43)
UTG+1 ($100.00)
MP ($16.64)
CO Hero ($276.39)
BTN ($368.27)
SB ($56.80)
BB ($24.60)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 7 players) Hero is CO 6 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero folds

Final Pot: $17

BTN wins $17 ( won +$5 )
Hero lost -$3.50


I autofolded this and then realised we were quite deep. Can we call this oop?

If we can't call this oop, how deep do we have to be to make a call reasonable in position?

why are there tables at the higher stakes.. for instance...the 3/6 tables at FTP..have one table with a long waiting list, and another that is absolutely 0? Or they see empty tables and dont sit in them/ prefer to wait at the other table?

how can i resize my clip for my avatar?

The people on the waiting list are probably hoping to sit with some weaker players. Also tables with abnormally high average pot size attract a lot of regulars.

Like when you play backgammon and you're about to bear off and win the game when your opponent suddenly rolls 3 double 6s and you're behind!

Yeah, I think a call here is good. The 3bet is rather small and it's not a hand you're going to lose your stack with if you wiff. Plus your implied odds are pretty big considering Villain is a little tight/passive. I thought maybe 4bet it, but probably not with Villain only 3betting 3.2%. Hard to get reads from hand histories, though.

There's either a mega-fish or a big name pro (or both) at the table and everyone wants to play with them.

I have 2 questions:

what is... metagame

&

If someone played $25 nl 6-max and I lost 100 buy-ins ($2,500) would you suggest they give up poker ??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metagame

No, I'd suggest they let me know where and when they're playing next...

Seriously, I'd suggest they move down in stakes and actually learn how to play the game since they obviously have no idea what they're doing.

Yeah, that's it... lol... Aaaarrrgggghhh...

I play on PS and I've been trying my luck at some small stake satelites, mostly trying to get into the bigger tourney's, like the $55 tourney or the $215 tourney.
Which ones are the best satelites to play? I've also noticed most of them are hyper turbo ones. Also, does it even pay off to play those satelites?

Thanks
Z

Is 2nl beatable playing TAG or LAG?

can you post an example stat?

Just downloaded PokerStove and I have been fiddling around with it, and its seems quite useful..

Problem is I don't know how I would apply it..

If I assign a villain a range and pokerstove tells me i have a 33.333% equity. Then when is it right to call? I am always unsure on how to calculate the odds and apply them..


If a pot is $1000 and the call I have to make is $500, then am i right in saying the pot is offering me 2:1? So therefore, do I need a 50% equity from pokerstove to call, or would 33.33% be enough?

If I have 33% equity according to stove, does this mean I am 2:1 or 3:1?

Could somebody just give me an example please? Thanks.

Does anyone have a link or know how to change the colors of this forum? I saw one of B1ght's screenshots in a thread, and the forum was all black and cool looking... Thanks guys.

Near the top left of this screen click on My 2+2, click on Edit Options, scroll down to the Miscellaneous Options section near the end, you will see a Forum Skin section. Good luck, Yojimgari

I put together a post explaining this a while back. Check it out:

Pot Odds, Calculating Outs and the Rule of 2 and 4 - Two Plus Two Poker Forum