Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Improving bet sizing - analysis of two cases Improving bet sizing - analysis of two cases

09-04-2017 , 02:17 PM
Hello, this is my first post on 2+2. English is not my first language, hence please have some mercy regarding grammatical mistakes (not poker) ;-)

I would like to get your opinion on a few plays/the toughtprocess I made/had. Any form of constructive feedback would be very helpful to me. If you feel it is too much to read, just skip my writing about the thought process. I partially wrote this down to reevaluate the plays I made myself. Without further ado, here are the scenarios in question:


Scenario1:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 214 BB (VPIP: 16.84, PFR: 6.32, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 96)
MP: 190 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 15.58, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 77)
Hero (MP+1): 163 BB
MP+2: 207.5 BB (VPIP: 23.68, PFR: 13.16, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 78)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
BTN: 93.5 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
SB: 76.5 BB (VPIP: 90.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
BB: 137 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 46.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG: 180.5 BB (VPIP: 5.17, PFR: 3.45, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 58)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 3 A Q
SB checks, Hero bets 5.5 BB, SB calls 5.5 BB

Turn: (18 BB, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero bets 14.5 BB, SB calls 14.5 BB

River: (47 BB, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero checks

SB shows 8 Q (Two Pair, Queens and Eights)
(Pre 32%, Flop 23%, Turn 11%)
Hero mucks K A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 68%, Flop 77%, Turn 89%)
SB wins 45.5 BB


Thought process:
Spoiler:
The PF opening is standard I guess. At the flop I chose a bet size that would make an unprofitable call for most flush draws, but small enough for some Ax combinations and maybe very good Qx to call (now that I am writing this I figure he would have folded every Qx but AQ and would have called with KJhh and Qxhh?). My worst enemy at that point was an AQ/QXhh/KJhh combination, because my opponent would have folded everything else PF or on the flop. I do not need to fear sets since my opponent probably would have 3-betted me PF (QQ/AA) or on the Flop (but I guess pocket 3s would call sometimes, but he would have had to fear a flush draw).

The 4s on the turn is not helpful for any hands my opponent would have. I decided to place a continuation-bet on the turn against a potential flush draw and to get some value. If he would have had Qxhh he would have probably folded by now. I think I should have bet a little more to make KJhh an easier fold for my opponent (?).

He called and checked the river. I assumed he would have AQ (I forgot about KJhh while playing) and wanted to trap me or played a worse hand that I beat, but I was not eager to find out what it was after a potential 'value bet'. If he was calling me with worse all the time, he probably would have folded the bet anyway, hence I checked. Turned out I got rivered with a way worse hand than I originally expected, which is unfortunate. What do you think about the thought process and bet sizing overall?



Scenario2:

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 33 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: 103 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (UTG+1): 189.5 BB
MP: 112 BB (VPIP: 14.06, PFR: 7.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 69)
MP+1: 53 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 7.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 41)
CO: 38.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 35.5 BB (VPIP: 47.06, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 36.5 BB (VPIP: 10.47, PFR: 10.47, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 86)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 8 T 6
BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, BB calls 3 BB

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 10 BB, BB raises to 21 BB, Hero calls 11 BB

River: (54.5 BB, 2 players) 5
BB bets 6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 6 BB

BB shows 7 9 (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 16%, Flop 96%, Turn 91%)
Hero shows Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Tens)
(Pre 84%, Flop 4%, Turn 9%)
BB wins 64 BB

Thought process:
Spoiler:
I had to RFI from early position and chose 3BB as raise, because often the people at my table get fairly suspicious if one bets 5BB+ as RFI and fold or just call with AA/KK/AK, rarely AQ. Furthermore a 3-way or 4-way pot would have been ideal with this hand I think. I have got to admit that I find it fairly difficult to play pocket Queens sometimes.

Ultimately I ended up having just one opponent here. My opponent is the BB and I had to fear sets, flush draws and sometimes pairs+gutshot (I figured rarely a straight). I think I bet too little at this point, because I did not filter out many hands here, just worse hands would fold. On the other hand often enough a opponent would call with two strong overcards. But in retroperspective I think it is less valuable to get called by theese hands compared to the losses I could face on the turn or river by not filtering out more hands.

The turn brings another ten. I tried to save as much as I could from betting bigger, since my opponents hand would have rarely improved on the turn. It also crossed my mind while playing that I could represent a set of 10s or a pair of 8s at this point because of my small bet on the flop. While I am writing this I think it is a bit of a weak semibluff since I was in early position+ there were good chances my opponent could have had 10J+ or 89s or similar hands. Notheless I had an overpair and would beat at least an 8. When my opponent reraised me it should have been a clear fold, but unfortunately I stopped being analytical at that point and did not think much about it, I ended up snap-calling.

I invested 12 more cents on the river to find out what he had, my curiosity had won :P. Turned out he flopped a straight with an offsuit hand.


I was wondering if you could give me any advice for choosing a more ideal bet size in general or in the situation described above. I also would like to know, if so, what you would have done differently. It would help me to improve my game! Thank you for every comment!

Last edited by Staubwedel; 09-04-2017 at 02:23 PM.
Improving bet sizing - analysis of two cases Quote
09-04-2017 , 02:49 PM
H1: bet river

H2: Larger on flop, check turn behind is reasonable
Improving bet sizing - analysis of two cases Quote
09-05-2017 , 04:25 PM
Thank you for your reply. I try to play it as recommended next time.
Improving bet sizing - analysis of two cases Quote
09-06-2017 , 02:09 AM
One hand 1, the sizings are good. This is a good flop for your range, and AK is near the top of that range, so betting and barreling is pretty straightforward. In theory, you should also be betting the river, because villain should almost never have the best hand. His range is "capped" at one pair when he calls the turn, because if he had a set or two pairs, he should have check-raised for value by now, precisely because you're often going to check back on the river. The problem is that weak players in the micros are obsessed with slowplaying, so I wouldn't put it past villain having AQ/A3s or 33. In that case, you can make the nitty check back, but if you want to play a tougher style, where you'd triple barrel bluff with some heart draws and KT/JT, you should be betting all your sets, two pairs and TPTK. Even AJ might need to go into your river value-betting range. You can check back AT or worse, as there's a decent chance that was pipped by AJ all along.

Hand 2, I assure you that your hand (QQ) does better against one opponent rather than several, so you should be very pleased that only the BB calls, but 3bb is a fine/standard open size. The flop bet in position is good. You could go a little larger, but it doesn't make much difference. On boards like this where villain has a lot of draws, you're kind of torn. You want to bet big to get value, but you're also worried about bloating the pot when so many turn cards are bad for your hand (any spade or middling card will make your QQ much weaker). As with the previous hand, you're close to the top of your range on the flop at least. (Only TT, AA and KK are higher in your range, unless you also play 88 UTG). I would check back the turn, or bet much smaller. Although the ten makes it less likely villain actually has one, you're close to drawing dead if he does indeed have trips. He can also have some boats with 88/66/T8s or even a flopped straight with 97s.
Villain's check-raise kind of makes me cringe. It's not a spot where he's likely to bluff, because by barreling the turn (especially with a large size), you're repping trips+. He shouldn't expect you to fold, because you've made it seem like you're committed (he's got almost his entire stack in the middle). If he had a draw of some sort and wanted to check-raise at some point, he'd usually pick the flop. He's unlikely to make this play with just an 8. Even though the size is small and villain had a short stack to begin with, I think you should sigh-fold to the turn raise. Generally speaking, turn raises (especially turn check-raises) in the micros are nutted hands. Villain can usually beat top pair/overpair. I guess I still go with AA/KK, as it's possible villain could be playing QQ/JJ in a weird way, but QQ doesn't beat many hands on this board facing that action. When you call, he only has 5bb behind, so you have to pay off on almost every river, so his turn raise was effectively a shove. If you can't beat a turn shoving range on this board, don't call the raise.
Improving bet sizing - analysis of two cases Quote
09-08-2017 , 05:34 PM
Thank you for the reply I try to valuebet the river more often with TPTK in a similar scenario as the first one. The second hand is a good example of why I find it difficult to play QQ especially without a PF three bet. One often finds oneself marginal spots with this hand. Next time I will play it more conservatively. Especially on such a draw-heavy board one does not want to give the opponent a free card. But seriously, thanks for this extensive reply, it is really valuable advice!
Improving bet sizing - analysis of two cases Quote

      
m