Dan Harrington says "Absoultely not", and in fact used the word "idiot" to describe a player who told him he "folded because he 'had a feeling' the other guy had a bigger set".

Given the extremely low probability that two players both had pairs AND both pairs made sets on the flop this makes perfect sense.

But just out of sheer morbid curiosity:

What if you're in last position with a hand like 44, the flop is something like 49K two-toned with two other villains in the pot, the first villain bets 2/3 pot and the second raises to triple? Let's say the villain in first position was the PFR and the villain and hero both called pre.

What would a villain raise with on the flop that he only called with pre that 444 beats here? AK is the only hand I can think of and even that's a stretch (if it was suited and matched the suits of the 4 and 9 it's a good stacking opportunity).

I realize I'm not giving villain reads here, but how different could the answer be between if the villain is a nit, a LAG, or an unknown?

I'm sure the answer is that you have to shove over the second villain's raise and don't get so nitty/gunshy you start folding sets, I'm just wondering what things might look like from the villains' perspectives.

Ive had similar spots and asked here, the answer is always "get all in" still feels wrong though. lost both times. Wondering same as you what else they could possibly have other than over sets.

It depends.

I've folded bottom set quite a few times playing 25 & 50NL Full Ring (and felt good about it), but you obviously need good reads in order to consider it.

Villain is 75/0 over 100k hands that raised UTG for the first time you have ever seen, flop comes AK7 and you hold 77? That I'm laying down and it's purely based on a read...yes, it's a contrived example but reads and stats on a player still do come into consideration over what to do.

That said, I'd likely fold a set 1:1000 times and would be dependent on action before me. Take your example but make the flop QJT and we hold TT, here I'm not really loving life and MIGHT consider a fold depending on the price I'm gettting but in your example I'm happy to stack off as the only realistic hand we're behind here would be 99.

IMO to even consider folding a set EVER (in a cash game, there are obvious equity situations where it makes sense in a tournament setting) but my initial impulse will always be to insta-fistpump shove/call a shove.

At the lowest limits of FR zoom there were a bunch of guys who only played pocket pairs and AK. Postflop they would call with overpairs (or tptk in case of AK), raise sets and fold everything else. When one of these guys raises on a 379r board, folding 33 is an option worth considering.

Case in point, villains were 60/20 and 50/25

LOL at A8, How could you possible call down with that, They arent even soooottteeedddddd?!?!!?

Seriously, you call a SHOVE with a GUTSHOT?!?!?!?!?

In all seriousness though, I think the difference between a hand like this and the one I described above is neither of these fish *cough* villains RAISED a flop bet. They're stations. I would love to be at a table with these two!

Knytestorme: What would you have done if UTG had raised to $2.40 on the flop instead of just calling BB's bet?

heheh the moment this flop came and BB led out I thought of this thread and was immediately wondering what I was going to do.

My initial thoughts were straight draw for the BB (obvs since I had blockers lol) that was leading to try and push out flush draw, and then a flush draw when UTG called. Once I realised that since I had a set I couldn't have blockers to the straight it became more interesting and at that point if UTG had of actually raised I still would have shoved, hated life and hoped for the board to pair.

I really can't think of a situation that I would fold bottom set to, except maybe if BB open shoved and UTG insta-called. Then I'd have to seriously think about laying it down, but still not sure I would in a cash game.

I guess it's the same situation as having JJ pre-flop, some-one raises, there is a 3-bet behind them, what do you do there?

Sure, I have done with obvious flush or straights made eg. TT, flop is TJA, turn is K, villain shoves.
At 2nl I don't think anyone's bluff repping a Q (although AK might be a shoving spot for some villains).

Absolutley not...Harrington is 100% correct when he calls that "NONSENSE"....because that is what it is. I'm never folding a set unless the board is 789 of hearts and I have 77....in a situation like that then I MIGHT consider a fold.

+1

Or if I am super deep and I have a solid read on a villain but with 100bb stacks I'm never folding.

If you're ever folding sets, then you shouldnt be playing pocket pairs. Why would you call a raise with 33 from a 75/0 just to fold when you hit the only hand worth hitting?

The problem with folding sets is that your opponents can easily take the same line with any overpair. Villains arent going to call 3 streets with AA, and thats precisely why we setmine, to stack hands like AA. There's a reason flopped sets are in your top profitable hands if you filtered by hand strength. Because they win 90% of the time.

Quit being results oriented. You are going to be losing money in the long run the moment you start folding sets.

I remember the first time I played 200NL. I was so pumped, very first hand we get it all in 3 ways in the flop. Bet, raise, I shove, two insta-calls. I had bottom set, other dude had top set, last guy had TPTK.

It was crushing at the time, but looking back I still support my decision to ship it with a set of nines.

But no, 90% of the time folding bottom set on flop doesn't cross my my mind unless board isn't super wet with at least 2 others in hand.

There are certainly situations in which it's correct to fold bottom set, but they typically occur when extremely deep stacked (think 300bb effective or more) and you have enough information about your opponent to know he won't stack off with worse, so it's rare. There isn't a good time to fold bottom set if you only have a "feeling" and no mathematical reasoning behind your decision.

Not near enough information supplied here to be able to give a good answere i'm afraid.

For example, stack sizes... Here 400bb (effective) deep our bottom set is a medium strenght hand. 50bb deep is the absolute nuts.

And we need to know the stakes. At the micros, villians can easily be overvaluing random crap/running random bluffs. At the small stakes, opponents have less spazzy tendancies (on the whole) and the uber nosebleeds, your opponents will be taking certain lines for good reasons - not only for value.

We also need to know about the pre flop sizing, spr etc. All of which you will have at the table.

Reads and stats are helpful too - but I understand we could be playing unknowns.

You do, however, have enough information at the table to analyse your hand strength...

Fwiw: I dont like the idea of folding a set at the micros - I think you need a good reason to find a fold rather than a good reason to find a call/raise... Most opponents are terrible and will spazz so often that its prolly +ev to click it back here and watch someone spazz "'cos I haz AK".

So yeah, I have had spots where I have thought with bottom/middle set that im up against a set or two... but 90% of the time I couldnt find a good reason to fold. Of the times I had this feeling, about 75% of the time I was wrong and was up against some form of spazz - thank God i didnt fold!

On drawy boards im delighted to stack off. Villians routinly stack off with draws...

Anyway, to sum up: OPs example is flawed from the get-go since he fails to provide any info that is freely available at the table.

And Im not looking to fold sets without a damn good reason - particually at the micros. Never folding a set vs a fish 100bb effective - Ever.

The thought has crossed my mind, especially when you're running really bad and always think that somehow the opponent has a better hand yet again. I've never actually folded a set on the flop, but have lost many buy-ins to higher sets, mostly at zoom poker.

The only time I ever legitimately put someone on a set (and by that, I mean not stroking my own intelligence and patting myself on the back for a good laydown) was playing rush poker on FTP with a 100 hand sample vs villain playing 0/0 who flats my raise and then went ape **** postflop.

This is the closest I EVER came to ALMOST folding (still didnt )
Villain is 17/14 wit low Aggresion.. Had a feeling he had a higher set..wtf else does he do this with..

but then I snapped back into reality n was like **** THIS, SHOVE!


PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $16.89
SB: $27.59
BB: $27.22
UTG: $8.81
MP: $50.83
Hero (CO): $28.69

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 2 2

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, BTN calls $0.62, fold, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.96, 3 players) 8 3 2
BB bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80, BTN calls $1.80

Turn: ($7.36, 3 players) 7
BB bets $5.30, Hero raises to $26.27 and is all-in, fold, BB calls $19.50 and is all-in

River: ($56.96, 2 players) 4

BB shows 8 8 (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 82%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Hero mucks 2 2 (Three of a Kind, Twos) (Pre 18%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
BB wins $54.96

FAQ: Should I fold my KK preflop? Should I fold my Set?

I've never folded a set, but one time I was in a hand where three of us flopped a set. The one with top set stacked off two of us. I've never regretted playing the second stack as I did (and losing), but I've hoped to play well enough to occasionally lay down bottom set.

I've studied Harrington's Hold 'em Cash Game books, but don't remember where he said to never lay down bottom set. If anyone knows where that is, please let me know. Meanwhile, I'll be off line for a while, and I'll try to find it. If I'm successful, I'll let you know.

The one time I've ever considered folding a set on the flop was in a pot, 500bb deep with a seemingly reasonable tag. I had 66 on J76r. When he 5bet-shoved the flop I was worried. Still, I couldn't bring myself to fold and he showed AJ. You would need a very, very specific read.

Yes, this exactly. It happens very rarely, but there are situations where you can fold bottom set on dry boards and be about 98% sure you've made the right fold. It's hardly exploitable, as someone said above, because it happens almost never. But I remember one mini FTOPS tourney where I had doubled early, and so had the biggest nit at the table, and we each had about 9k chips at the 10/20 level, so 450 BB stacks. I had 66, flop comes 67J rainbow, I lead for 90, nit raises to 180, I raise to 500, nit raises to 1000, I raise to 2000, nit shoves. Well, that 7-bet shove from a complete nit just has to be something that beats bottom set, so I fold, villain shows middle set 777, I go on to min cash or something.

edit: funny that it's the same flop as in DefiniteArticle's post above! Weird coincidence.

Interesting read, thank you.

Yes, if you cannot justify folding except because of a "feeling" then don't do it. Emotions = / = logical information. Case in point, I stacked a nit on a monotone flop yesterday, thinking "oh crap he's such a nit, he must have my bottom set beat"...no, he had TPTK (no flush draw) and couldn't lay it down.

As said by someone else earlier in the thread, the problem with folding bottom sets OTF is that plenty of villains will play an overpair exactly like a set, no matter what the board looks like.