Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status?

08-24-2020 , 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllinPoker
Huawei lost access to using US technology in its chips in its cell phones /5g network equipment.

It stocked up before the ban on 9m units, but it needed around 120M more.

TSMC stopped producing for huawei
Mediatek this week also stopped
They seemed to close a bunch of the loopholes on components too, so Samsung /Sony also will prob stop
Huawei might be the first causality of the Tech war
Huawei might lose business but no way there will be a causality
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-24-2020 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
I am telling you who is ahead. Further, in your example, American companies lost bids to the Chinese government. The CCP is subsidizing the projects so that they can get the intel...
You are guessing, you don’t have all the facts, China’s tech is good. If American government didn’t see Huawei coming I believe Chinas tech is pretty up there with America like tencent and other big Chinese companies.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-24-2020 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
You are guessing, you don’t have all the facts, China’s tech is good. If American government didn’t see Huawei coming I believe Chinas tech is pretty up there with America like tencent and other big Chinese companies.
I am not guessing. I just completed a graduate degree in computer science. I work in bioinformatics (high performance computing) at one of the foremost medical research hospitals in the country, very nearly opened a 1MW BTC mining operation, and researched producing our own chipsets.

I am, without working in this space in the intelligence community, about as informed as you can be.

You on the other hand are almost certainly guessing, and therefore likely hypocritical...
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-24-2020 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllinPoker
think problem areas where regional players can cause problems

south china sea

strait of hormuz

other choke points in major trading routes

EU might be able to escort some of its trading ships, but even Britain had one of it's tankers taken over by Iran

Who is going to rescue 90% of the countries ships who have no navy that can operate past their shore lines
If countries in the middle east routinely began to take over tankers they would find the repercussions far outweigh the benefits. Good luck running a country where you have essentially cut yourself off from all the imports/exports with the richest populations on earth, you'll also need much more than good luck trying to explain to your natives why there's a huge shortage of medicine and essential supplies that is provided by said countries.

The tanker was seized as part of a retaliatory measure after an Iranian tanker had been seized by the UK. It was tit for tat and in no way indicative of how the world would operate if the US wasn't around.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-24-2020 , 06:57 PM
bitcoin has some similarities to gold but some differences too.

gold is great in true crisis. if you are fleeing a horrible situation, it is very portable, easily hidden and most importantly very very easy to convert to cash.

if you were a rich person fleeing genocide and in grave danger, i just don't see bitcoins as being practical..... seems like it is a huge hassle to convert them to cash and to manage them in general.

both gold and bitcoin have the problem that they don't hold their value very well during certain times.... yes, they can go way up too..... but to function as a stable asset, u want them to display stability........ bitcoin to me is just another extremely volatile currency.

personally, i don't see much need for bitcoin except perhaps in the underground economy..... gold is much better but i'm not a huge fan of it either
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-24-2020 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
bitcoin has some similarities to gold but some differences too.

gold is great in true crisis. if you are fleeing a horrible situation, it is very portable, easily hidden and most importantly very very easy to convert to cash.

if you were a rich person fleeing genocide and in grave danger, i just don't see bitcoins as being practical..... seems like it is a huge hassle to convert them to cash and to manage them in general.
First of all, I am not repping BTC over gold. Just just sharing what I think has become wisdom / insight from my experience. BTC is much more portable than gold...MUCH. The concept of converting BTC to cash is temporary and dissipating. There is quite a bit that you can buy directly with BTC. And the freeer society becomes the more you will be able to transact in BTC. You can get a Visa BTC debit card through Coinbase: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael.../#66712fb82e83

At a certain point gold becomes impractical to move. You could pay "cash" for a USD $1B Yatch on a BTC debit card. GL fleeing Egypt with a **** ton of gold as Mubrak learned.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
both gold and bitcoin have the problem that they don't hold their value very well during certain times.... yes, they can go way up too..... but to function as a stable asset, u want them to display stability........ bitcoin to me is just another extremely volatile currency.

personally, i don't see much need for bitcoin except perhaps in the underground economy..... gold is much better but i'm not a huge fan of it either
The problem is your unit of account. You have been habituated / conditioned to think in terms of and price things in USD. I would suggest that it is not actually gold and BTC that fluctuate, but rather USD et al.

In truth however, it is both. If you think critically about this you should realize that what really doesn't hold its value is fiat...
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-25-2020 , 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
I am not guessing. I just completed a graduate degree in computer science. I work in bioinformatics (high performance computing) at one of the foremost medical research hospitals in the country, very nearly opened a 1MW BTC mining operation, and researched producing our own chipsets.

I am, without working in this space in the intelligence community, about as informed as you can be.

You on the other hand are almost certainly guessing, and therefore likely hypocritical...
Yeah but the chinese don't play their hand face up so who knows what tech they have now is what im saying.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-25-2020 , 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Yeah but the chinese don't play their hand face up so who knows what tech they have now is what im saying.
Sure, there is some degree of uncertainty. But you should study the Opium Wars & the history of Hong Kong, the history of Taiwan, and the "Cultural Revolution. "
You should read Paulson's "Dealing With China (https://www.amazon.com/Dealing-China.../dp/1455504203)" and Allison et al's Lee Kuan Yew (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...api_tkin_p1_i1)

Then you should ask yourself:
A. where & how did they get their tech?
B. What original thing has come out of China?

The answers are, they were either given it, or stole it or both to A.

For B, you have to go back centuries to silk and gunpowder to find original things coming out of China. The USA has given the world Goolge and Amazon while China has Baidu and Alibaba. Do you see a pattern here?

Elon Musk & Jack Ma (When Elon Musk realised China's richest man is an idiot ( Jack Ma )):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHGd...be&app=desktop

In addition, the US has given the world: the internet, the iPhone, TSLA and SpaceX. As well as, half a century later, still being the only country to land on the moon.

The Chinese are not winning. You may obviously remain a skeptic if you wish. But in poker, science, and the real world, we do the best we can with imperfect data.

So rather than saying "who knows, bc reasons" I would suggest some study. You can then reach an informed conclusion.

I saw this article ("They're In Survival Mode" - Huawei Scrambles To Stockpile Critical 5G Chips As US Ban Takes Effect) this morning: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology...n-takes-effect this is the kind of stuff the trade war is about.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-25-2020 , 02:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
Sure, there is some degree of uncertainty. But you should study the Opium Wars & the history of Hong Kong, the history of Taiwan, and the "Cultural Revolution. "
You should read Paulson's "Dealing With China (https://www.amazon.com/Dealing-China.../dp/1455504203)" and Allison et al's Lee Kuan Yew (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...api_tkin_p1_i1)

Then you should ask yourself:
A. where & how did they get their tech?
B. What original thing has come out of China?

The answers are, they were either given it, or stole it or both to A.

For B, you have to go back centuries to silk and gunpowder to find original things coming out of China. The USA has given the world Goolge and Amazon while China has Baidu and Alibaba. Do you see a pattern here?

Elon Musk & Jack Ma (When Elon Musk realised China's richest man is an idiot ( Jack Ma )):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHGd...be&app=desktop

In addition, the US has given the world: the internet, the iPhone, TSLA and SpaceX. As well as, half a century later, still being the only country to land on the moon.

The Chinese are not winning. You may obviously remain a skeptic if you wish. But in poker, science, and the real world, we do the best we can with imperfect data.

So rather than saying "who knows, bc reasons" I would suggest some study. You can then reach an informed conclusion.

I saw this article ("They're In Survival Mode" - Huawei Scrambles To Stockpile Critical 5G Chips As US Ban Takes Effect) this morning: https://www.zerohedge.com/technology...n-takes-effect this is the kind of stuff the trade war is about.
Like i said, i don't know where the tech stand but i am a skeptic of moon landing and past tech doesn't mean you will forever have the lead. The chinese has caught up to a certain degree and will keep catching up imo but thinking because 20th century belong to the west doesn't mean the 21st century still belongs to the west Everyone steals tech if it benefits their country, Amerca stole tech too. .i do thank you for the info and i will read the books. Let see in 10-20 where the tech world stands. Internet was a british invention i think. Jack Ma is a business man, he aint no inventor, he just savvy with business. Elon is a inventor, a visionary, not many people on his level

Ps i am no fan of any government, all are corrupt pos anyways.

Last edited by jfound; 08-25-2020 at 02:26 PM.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-25-2020 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Elon is a inventor.
Tell us more.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-25-2020 , 03:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
Tell us more.
you are very wise and intelligent, makes elon look average
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-25-2020 , 05:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
could you have the reserve asset be a basket of currencies? i'm sure china and russia would love to be in for 5% and 2% each, or something like that.... no idea if this idea is practical.... and i'd assume that the USA, EU and japan would have to own the other's currencies as their reserves. basically it wouldn't matter much to some small country as their currency would be tiny % of basket
I think this is a relevant proposal (although slightly different than your question) https://www.aier.org/article/a-globa...urrency-board/

Quote:
Rather than buying and selling SDRs for the items in its valuation basket (ala the gold or other traditional commodity standards), the IMF would sell and redeem these “real SDR” for the basket indirectly (against government or other AAA financial assets of equivalent value). Such an SDR, with a relatively constant real value, is likely to be adopted as the anchor currency for fixing the exchange rates of many if not most national currencies and to augment or replace the U.S dollar and Euro in countries’ foreign exchange reserves.
The triffin dilemma that the US faces from issuing the reserve country I think is something all countries would like to avoid including the US. I think as the economic fallout from the covid recession starts to play out there will be serious discussion about moving to a higher order system much like coats describes.

Bitcoin would be relevant as well as it is growing to be able to serve the role that keynes bancor was intended for:
Quote:
The recent IMF papers on the SDR have raised the more radical possibility of issuing an international currency unlinked to the SDR basket—“bancor.” Its value would be determined by its supply and demand, possibly supported by some official uses (as is the demand for existing SDRs). An international central bank issuing a fiat currency would enjoy the political protection of needing the agreement of a majority of its international members to expand its supply, but is still very unlikely to enjoy the broad support necessary for its adoption.
I reached out to coats however and he was unable to see bitcoin as a legitimate commodity to be used in a basket (or as a basis). There is a limited supply so he didn't see a demand stabilization mechanism. I think he is wrong though and it comes from the fee market and full maturity (ie highest value transactors finally coming to use bitcoin).
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-26-2020 , 12:14 PM
interacting with rand is the moment you realize you know nothing.

anyway, what a pompous fool
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-26-2020 , 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
interacting with rand is the moment you realize you know nothing.

anyway, what a pompous fool
You know, I’m sorry to hear that you feel that way. I think of these forums as a place for truths, the best ideas, theories etc, to bubble to the top. Btw, if you are not familiar with “Bubble Sort,” literally what I am picturing here, and other sorting algorithms this is a really cool video: https://youtu.be/kPRA0W1kECg.

Anyway, I wasn’t sure if I wanted to respond to this or not. But I decided to because I want to say this. We are responsible for the meaning that we assign to our experiences.

One approach here is to feel hurt, perhaps your ego was damaged? And to respond to that emotional pain by lashing out. Notice that I did not call you any names.

Another approach is to be grateful to have participated in reasoned discourse and to have potentially learned something.

I am reminded of a story, I think from Tony Robbins. Two brothers, a few years apart in age had their father arrested for third strike grand theft auto. Something like 25 years later they were interviewed separately.

One was in jail for third strike grand theft auto, and the other one was a regional VP. They were asked the same question: “why do you think that you are where you are today?” What is interesting is that they gave the same answer: “where else could I be with a father like that?”

If your response to our exchange is to lash out, maybe you should talk to someone. Maybe you would benefit from meditation and introspection. I don’t appreciate being called names. I am neither of those things.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote

      
m