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What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status?

08-22-2020 , 08:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
^They really ought to teach geopolitics better in school. Or just basic reasoning skills.

Europe loves the US bases and its nuclear umbrella, it saves them a fortune on having to do the difficult political task of paying for and conscripting their own militaries and arsenals sufficient to meet the Russian threat.

In fact, Europe wouldn't even exist without the US. It would be part of the Western Russian Empire. You can see a tiny taste of that already when a weak/cowardly/Russia colluding US president was in charge - Russia simply took a chunk of a sovereign European country (Ukraine) for their own.
Yeah USA said they wouldn’t expand to the East after Russia agreed to let East and west Germany unite, but nato kept expanding East and threatening Russia. Lesser buffer zone. Stop thinking Russia is the aggressor when it’s America
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Ask the middle east how they like america, and the coup CIA did in south america and the world. The us government is no saint, lied about wmd to invade iraq and destablize the middle east. You cant even play poker online ffs. Yeah don't get me wrong I hate all power hungry governments which is like 99.8+% of them
Your posts expose your one dimensional thinking. A lot of what America has done in the Middle East was not good. But there is a millennia if bad blood between the Christian West and the Islamic world.

I have no interest in asking the Middle East anything.

The state of nature, pseudo anarchist position is not optimal. Have you read Nozick’s Anarchy State & Utopia?

The US, like any person or country can and should improve. But without it you would be speaking German and will be speaking Chinese.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t3hbandit
It's incredible how effective American propaganda is. Always paying your hard earned dollars to look after the rest of us.

90% of the world would be absolutely delighted if your military packed it's **** up and went home. You' aren't doing it out of the goodness of your hearts and routinely commit war crimes.
The US military has bases around the world as a result of WWII. In case you don’t remember z Germans were straight killing fools and rolling Poland and France like they were bowling balls.

US military bases are huge economic anchors wherever they are and prevent Putin from “annexing” all of Eastern Europe.

Don’t forget after (hm, and before...) the Germans had the biggest brain fart in history, the Russians decided on socialism and Mao and co killed what, millions?

The US isn’t perfect, but if u like your internet, cars, man going to the moon, innovation, music, Marvel movies, freedom of the seas, and much more...maybe you should recalibrate your thinking.

Or by all means, I would like to be the first to invite you to go live in Russia or China as a gay Muslim. Have fun with that.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 09:41 AM
Disclaimer: I actually think the troops should come home, or as Trump has suggested, should be paid by the counties that they protect.

Rather than deploying abroad we should spend that money on tech and by more defensive.

The ignorance some of you are displaying is amazing.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Yeah USA said they wouldn’t expand to the East after Russia agreed to let East and west Germany unite, but nato kept expanding East and threatening Russia. Lesser buffer zone. Stop thinking Russia is the aggressor when it’s America
This is really simple:

- Russia is a dictatorship who wants to (and have) invaded sovereign countries in Eastern Europe who are not ethnically Russian, who want nothing to do with Russia and who the Russians have deliberately genocided (Ukrainian famine for example).

- These countries, as protection from legitimate fears (see:Crimea) of another Russian invasion, want to join NATO, which they voluntarily can do

- In your twisted mind, this makes the US the aggressor.

If you're not Russian or Chinese, I can't even begin to fathom how demented or ignorant you'd have to be to call the US the aggressor. Russia has ZERO risk to itself as long it stays within its borders and remains happy with its 17,000,000 square kilometers/17% of the world's habitable land that it controls.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 10:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Yeah USA said they wouldn’t expand to the East after Russia agreed to let East and west Germany unite, but nato kept expanding East and threatening Russia. Lesser buffer zone. Stop thinking Russia is the aggressor when it’s America
NATO is not the US. And no one is entitled to a buffer zone. Russia feeling threatened and contained is their problem...

I am pretty sure that no one has invaded Russia since Hitler demonstrated epic levels of hubris...
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
^They really ought to teach geopolitics better in school. Or just basic reasoning skills.

Europe loves the US bases and its nuclear umbrella, it saves them a fortune on having to do the difficult political task of paying for and conscripting their own militaries and arsenals sufficient to meet the Russian threat.

In fact, Europe wouldn't even exist without the US. It would be part of the Western Russian Empire. You can see a tiny taste of that already when a weak/cowardly/Russia colluding US president was in charge - Russia simply took a chunk of a sovereign European country (Ukraine) for their own.
lol@ Russia being some Thanos esque threat. The Russian economy is a complete joke with avg salary being like 6k a year. California has double the GDP of Russia ffs.

UK and France have their own military/nukes and the reason Russia are involved with the disputes you listed are because as a country they're fairly land locked and many of the wannabe separatist states pose a threat to key locations not because of some ideological goals of conquering.

Putin is pathetic and has done nothing to improve the lives of Russians outside his Oligarch pals.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
NATO is not the US. And no one is entitled to a buffer zone. Russia feeling threatened and contained is their problem...

I am pretty sure that no one has invaded Russia since Hitler demonstrated epic levels of hubris...
Lol at thinking nato is not US, US is the reason why nato is still here. Nato lied and said they were not gonna expand to the east but obvious they did and lied

Last edited by jfound; 08-22-2020 at 12:03 PM.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
This is really simple:

- Russia is a dictatorship who wants to (and have) invaded sovereign countries in Eastern Europe who are not ethnically Russian, who want nothing to do with Russia and who the Russians have deliberately genocided (Ukrainian famine for example).

- These countries, as protection from legitimate fears (see:Crimea) of another Russian invasion, want to join NATO, which they voluntarily can do

- In your twisted mind, this makes the US the aggressor.

If you're not Russian or Chinese, I can't even begin to fathom how demented or ignorant you'd have to be to call the US the aggressor. Russia has ZERO risk to itself as long it stays within its borders and remains happy with its 17,000,000 square kilometers/17% of the world's habitable land that it controls.
America has no democracy, you guys have a false freedom. Lol at russian having 0 risk. The west has been encroaching every year, watch within the next 10 years or so i believe we will have another war. Right now we are having proxy wars but soon it will be direct great power wars
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 03:00 PM
grunch.........

certainly interesting that the USA can seemingly print money non-stop and USD still be bastion of safety.. of course it helps that the EU, japan and every other significant country is doing the same. i think japan has been printing money for a long time now. and interest rates are still zero (could be wrong, have to check)

if USD no longer reserve currency, what would it be? not that many credible options.

could you have the reserve asset be a basket of currencies? i'm sure china and russia would love to be in for 5% and 2% each, or something like that.... no idea if this idea is practical.... and i'd assume that the USA, EU and japan would have to own the other's currencies as their reserves. basically it wouldn't matter much to some small country as their currency would be tiny % of basket
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Lol at thinking nato is not US, US is the reason why nato is still here. Nato lied and said they were not gonna expand to the east but obvious they did and lied
There is nothing wrong with my thinking, and I am not playing games here. NATO is not the US. You can say it (more or less) does what the US wants, or it would be nothing without the US, or w.e.

But it is quite clearly not the US and quite clearly includes many other sovereign nations, perhaps most notably Great Britain and Germany, which are definitely not the US...
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie
grunch.........

certainly interesting that the USA can seemingly print money non-stop and USD still be bastion of safety.. of course it helps that the EU, japan and every other significant country is doing the same. i think japan has been printing money for a long time now. and interest rates are still zero (could be wrong, have to check)

if USD no longer reserve currency, what would it be? not that many credible options.

could you have the reserve asset be a basket of currencies? i'm sure china and russia would love to be in for 5% and 2% each, or something like that.... no idea if this idea is practical.... and i'd assume that the USA, EU and japan would have to own the other's currencies as their reserves. basically it wouldn't matter much to some small country as their currency would be tiny % of basket
https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factshe...wing-Right-SDR

The answer is: of course you can. But it shouldn't be currencies. It should be hard assets for which BTC qualifies in my book.

The USD won't be replaced as the reserve currency overnight. It's just that more and more deals will be done without it.

There is no currency that can replace it (as said earlier in this thread). EUR would closest, and it is a joke. IDK maybe we could trust the Swiss...
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
There is a lot of good here. But I believe there are some mistaken assumptions as well and I would like to present the balanced opposition to this perspective.

1. AI consists of two major components -- software & hardware
This trade war (superficially about IP) is more specifically about strategic technologies. China is somewhere between 1 - 3 decades behind the US when it comes to manufacturing chipsets that can power cutting edge / competitive AI.

This is a largely a US but somewhat a global supply chain. Mostly US companies and a handful of German ones if I recall correctly.

Largest Semiconductor Manufacturing Companies
1. Samsung -- South Korean -- Strong American Ally
2. Intel -- American
3. SK Hynix -- South Korean -- Strong American Ally
4. TSMC -- Taiwan -- Precarious American Ally of Immense Strategic Import
5. Micron -- American
6. Broadcom -- American
7. Qualcomm -- American
8. Toshiba -- Japanese -- Strong American Ally
9. Texas Instruments -- American
10. NVIDA -- American

FWIW, TSMC makes all of Bitmain's ASICs.

The lithographic processes and other upstream supply chain stuff is a huge hurdle to overcome. China is far behind here and there is no reason to think that their growth rate exceeds that of the US.

2. Software
Google, MIT, Silicon Valley, Boston are absolutely the cutting edge globally. The Chinese are smart and doing "great things" software wise. But again there is no reason to think that they are ahead (or have a steeper growth rate) of the leaders in the West.

3. Robotics
I am relatively uninformed here, but I believe Boston Dynamics is the cutting edge and leader here.

4. SpaceX (and other Space Tech)
Arguably the most important thing on this list, and I believe not included in US / China evaluation quoted above. Space is the ultimate high ground and the theatre of the future (do not fool yourself into believe otherwise, it is Space and Cyber and Economic).

5. financial / systems / economies
There are things wrong around the world, no doubt about it. But China is one of if not the most vulnerable because of how they have chosen to implement "Capitalism."

Do not forget that the destruction of the dollar would destroy China's global war chest -- they own quite a bit of US paper.

As an aside (but to the point of the thread) -- if the US actually has all of the gold they claim to have, and if the government acts selflessly and responsibly (can you hear the lulz...?) the average American citizen should be reasonably insulated (after a period of chaos) from USD destruction.

6. Cultural
The US has such a big lead here it is not funny. Hollywood and the rest of the American entertainment industry (FB/Instagram & other social networks) are a huge megaphone for culture.

China has oppressed (and has a history of oppressing) their citizens. Recall, Rome crumbled from within. This is arguably the most important point here as well. The Chinese that know enough to have their head out of the sand want out of China.

Russia is only China's ally in so far as they can use them to oppose NATO and the West. Russia has more in common culturally with the West than it does with China.

TLDR
SpaceX & company is a huge edge for America. Culturally China's short comings will be their undoing.

The only things China really has going for them is the size of their population and their ability to steer their massive ship in a singular strategic direction. But the values that yield this result (control) make them robust and / or fragile politically, socially, and economically. Whereas the US's diversity of opinion and politics (Constitution, etc) makes it, if not antifragile, at least more robust and less fragile.

Conclusion
The US absolutely cannot rest on its laurels. But China is quite likely to go the way of Rome before ever becoming Rome.

Also, you cannot forget American allies. China will largely stand alone in a shooting war. Russia is much better off in an American unipolar world than a Chinese one. An oversimplified global strategic analysis can call the MENA a wild card, can largely ignore South America and can definitively put Australia (& co) and most of Europe and Canada on the side of the Americans when push comes to shove. That leaves China's sole ally an uncommitted Russia.

To anyone who wants to invade American or Russia, I say good luck.

Truth is that a hot war serves no ones interest and economic / cyber are the theatres of the future (if get's hot space -- US dominate --becomes immensely important...).
Honestly i don't know who is ahead and who is behind but I do know that usa underestimated China with 5g networks so who knows where tech stands right now. usa never thought they were gonna lose out on the 5g battle so i am not convince americans lead in tech is that big or if there is an edge.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-22-2020 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
There is nothing wrong with my thinking, and I am not playing games here. NATO is not the US. You can say it (more or less) does what the US wants, or it would be nothing without the US, or w.e.

But it is quite clearly not the US and quite clearly includes many other sovereign nations, perhaps most notably Great Britain and Germany, which are definitely not the US...
well of course on paper its not just "america" but we know who runs the show.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 02:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t3hbandit
It's incredible how effective American propaganda is. Always paying your hard earned dollars to look after the rest of us.

90% of the world would be absolutely delighted if your military packed it's **** up and went home. You' aren't doing it out of the goodness of your hearts and routinely commit war crimes.
90% of countries probably wouldn't be able to trade globally if the US navy went home and didn't guarantee freedom of the seas.

Remind yourself how the world acted before world war 2 and what led up to that war. It was a world of empires/colonies/fighting for raw materials/trading routes.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 03:14 AM
Huawei lost access to using US technology in its chips in its cell phones /5g network equipment.

It stocked up before the ban on 9m units, but it needed around 120M more.

TSMC stopped producing for huawei
Mediatek this week also stopped
They seemed to close a bunch of the loopholes on components too, so Samsung /Sony also will prob stop
Huawei might be the first causality of the Tech war

Last edited by AllinPoker; 08-23-2020 at 03:19 AM.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 03:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factshe...wing-Right-SDR

The answer is: of course you can. But it shouldn't be currencies. It should be hard assets for which BTC qualifies in my book.

The USD won't be replaced as the reserve currency overnight. It's just that more and more deals will be done without it.

There is no currency that can replace it (as said earlier in this thread). EUR would closest, and it is a joke. IDK maybe we could trust the Swiss...
And what does back BTC beside « confidence » like fiat currency ?
How can you you have currency that moves so much ?
Imo BTC is everything but hard asset.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 09:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Good, people are more free and had a better standard of living

Nh to everyone who let this gem slide.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllinPoker
90% of countries probably wouldn't be able to trade globally if the US navy went home and didn't guarantee freedom of the seas.

Remind yourself how the world acted before world war 2 and what led up to that war. It was a world of empires/colonies/fighting for raw materials/trading routes.
United nations and Nato where formed for this reason and the reality of Nukes meant an end to wars between the most powerful nations.

lol @ USA being the reason for global trade.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfound
Honestly i don't know who is ahead and who is behind but I do know that usa underestimated China with 5g networks so who knows where tech stands right now. usa never thought they were gonna lose out on the 5g battle so i am not convince americans lead in tech is that big or if there is an edge.
I am telling you who is ahead. Further, in your example, American companies lost bids to the Chinese government. The CCP is subsidizing the projects so that they can get the intel...
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp

1. And what does back BTC beside « confidence » like fiat currency ?

2. How can you you have currency that moves so much ?

3. Imo BTC is everything but hard asset.
1. You can either say nothing backs BTC or it is backed by energy (and tech).

2. This is not the right way to think about it. You have been habituated to thinking in dollars (or another fiat currency). In markets, both assets move. For example, the stock market has down days when there is USD strength. The volatility is driven by the uncertainty and the crazy things happening in USD & other fiat currencies.

Basically there is been a flood of dollars which requires a new state and repricing of assets. If we had sound money state would change less and pricing would respond more to normal dynamics.

3. BTC is a hard asset. I understand your position and why you may feel this way. But if you think a level deeper you may change your mind.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 04:41 PM
What I mean is silver / gold / platinum are hard assets cause it is something physical , like lands , real estate .

I just can’t see how a bit coin is consider the same .
Currency are just a mean of transaction and I just feel Bitcoin is basically the same .
What I am missing ?
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 06:59 PM
BTC is a hard asset like real estate/gold because it's supply is (relatively) fixed. Supply cannot inflate to deal with an influx in demand.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 07:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
What I mean is silver / gold / platinum are hard assets cause it is something physical , like lands , real estate .

I just can’t see how a bit coin is consider the same .
Currency are just a mean of transaction and I just feel Bitcoin is basically the same .
What I am missing ?
BTC is currently inflating. But ultimately, supply will be fixed.

In order to override this directive the person who desires to inflate it would have to control 51% of the network. This is a tall order and basically impossible.

It is in the stakeholders' best interest not to inflate the currency because scarcity is part of what gives it value. Inflating supply would depreciate existing capital. So current participants probably wont do it.

Let's assume we have addressed the supply side (it is a safe assumption). The next aspects are the energy and compute that it consumes. These are basically commodities...

And thus, hard asset.

As an aside, objectively the energy consumption is bad. But it is worth it if it provides an efficient financial system. This is value added in my opinion.
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote
08-23-2020 , 09:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by t3hbandit
United nations and Nato where formed for this reason and the reality of Nukes meant an end to wars between the most powerful nations.

lol @ USA being the reason for global trade.
think problem areas where regional players can cause problems

south china sea

strait of hormuz

other choke points in major trading routes

EU might be able to escort some of its trading ships, but even Britain had one of it's tankers taken over by Iran

Who is going to rescue 90% of the countries ships who have no navy that can operate past their shore lines
What Happens To Average American Citizens If The Dollar Loses Its "Reserve Currency" Status? Quote

      
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