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October 2013 Trading Thread October 2013 Trading Thread

10-23-2013 , 11:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
technically, you guys think ANGI can break down further ? it reports today .
Earnings trumps technicals Myrna, because too much new information is coming into the stock. Chart is only going to tell you what expectations are. I'd say Angi's expectations are to disappoint. It's performed weak relative to the market since the uptrend resumed.

I don't really consider that actionable information though.

Hope your still king it .
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
technically, you guys think ANGI can break down further ? it reports today .
looks like a buyer pegged at 15. Maybe similar to a couple months ago at 20. You see the pattern quite often but I'm not so excited about how it effects earnings. Of the top of my head COH had a seller at 59-60 area and the missed putting the seller on the right side of the trade. I'd be weary of the high short interest. Pretty beat chart, could squeeze well
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 11:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
SPY is forming an evening star over the last 3 days, if we can close near the low today, that will be a great sign of an intermediate top.
What's the down side catalyst though? Earnings? What's your plan for SDS? Still wondering if I should take more profits myself, I just don't see this uptrend getting broken in November personally.

LEN popped more today and is so volatile I'm tempted to take another 3rd off if there is a legit threat to the market and buy back lower. Thoughts?
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 11:45 AM
I don't know what the downside catalyst is. Overbought and up for 5 years in a straight line? Nothing goes up forever. It has been good news is good news and bad news is good news, but at some point bad news will be bad news.

Plan on SDS is writing spreads of covered calls, and then hedging again gradually with quality long names when they hit reasonable prices.
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10-23-2013 , 12:39 PM
Some more of the muni CEFs I have hit fair value, so I sold some. Down to 25% of my portfolio.

Also bought CREE this morning which puts me at about 30% long stocks.

Edit: just added LAD.

Last edited by BrianTheMick2; 10-23-2013 at 12:49 PM.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 12:41 PM
So I called 8x8 (eght) to set up service, im talking to the guy who is cool and chatty and he is telling me they have been real busy and that they just hired 50 new CS reps at the san jose hq's ... guess who reports today .
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
So I called 8x8 (eght) to set up service, im talking to the guy who is cool and chatty and he is telling me they have been real busy and that they just hired 50 new CS reps at the san jose hq's ... guess who reports today .
I guess the question is whether someone low level like that at a 750M market cap company could have some sinister intentions but it seems very unlikely. That said, they seem to have a lot of optimism priced in already
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 01:50 PM
Thinking of adding JNPR to long portfolio, anything I should be worried about?
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Edit: just added LAD.


Just sold it.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 02:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SretiCentV
I guess the question is whether someone low level like that at a 750M market cap company could have some sinister intentions but it seems very unlikely. That said, they seem to have a lot of optimism priced in already
yes, that probably came off as too rah rah, i bought a token amount to remind myself about it . it wasnt sinister at all . Will def short a small amount of angi near the close though .. still in with deck and msft as well.


pretty impressive bounce brcm had , should have gone long when i started coering at 940-10am timeframe .
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
yes, that probably came off as too rah rah, i bought a token amount to remind myself about it . it wasnt sinister at all . Will def short a small amount of angi near the close though .. still in with deck and msft as well.
calls were cheap so I picked some up for the gambool
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by berya
Just joined Savant on the Len buy. Stop below 8/15 low.
Profit target got hit today. +$3.6.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 04:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
yes, that probably came off as too rah rah, i bought a token amount to remind myself about it . it wasnt sinister at all . Will def short a small amount of angi near the close though .. still in with deck and msft as well.


pretty impressive bounce brcm had , should have gone long when i started coering at 940-10am timeframe .
too easy dude. You play the options too? I didn't look at volatility at all
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
too easy dude. You play the options too? I didn't look at volatility at all
talking about angi right ?? just the stock,, did not like the pricing on the premium . much cheaper the carry cost on just the stock.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 04:33 PM
BB you asked for my picks this morning, hope you followed through on my pm.
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10-23-2013 , 05:38 PM
Way to jinx us jb.
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10-23-2013 , 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
Way to jinx us jb.
I listened to the conference call. It went well.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
I listened to the conference call. It went well.
Have not heard it yet . well for us or well for them.. ? I'm assuming by the ticker , it went well for them.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
Have not heard it yet . well for us or well for them.. ? I'm assuming by the ticker , it went well for them.
Growth story is still intact. Not sure what the rest of the market will think tomorrow morning though other than that they missed on earnings.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 07:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Growth story is still intact. Not sure what the rest of the market will think tomorrow morning though other than that they missed on earnings.
I will have to keep an eye on it the first 15 , I saw what happened on brcm and was lucky to get out where I did . even though my gut is telling me it will do a reverse of brcm and open at high/ close at low.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBiceps
SPY is forming an evening star over the last 3 days, if we can close near the low today, that will be a great sign of an intermediate top.
The pattern held but was not super strong. SPY has to stay below ~$175.00 for the pattern to remain intact.

I bought back the naked puts I wrote on RRD for about break-even, since even though I think the company is strong fundamentally the earnings next week, and the ex-div right before NOV15 options expiration has very poor implied odds. I did well on this stock/options the last 2 months, but will sit this month out.

I have naked puts on GLW and LXK that will probably be worthless on NOV15, but after seeing the size of their up-moves on earnings, I am not sure I was properly compensated for my risk.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2013 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
I will have to keep an eye on it the first 15 , I saw what happened on brcm and was lucky to get out where I did . even though my gut is telling me it will do a reverse of brcm and open at high/ close at low.
I have a feeling that you are either right or wrong on that.

It ran up on some nice news recently (Fortune mag called it nice names and it opened up facilities in Europe, etc.). I think there are a lot of weak hands in it (including us) who will be more than happy to cut losses. It also doesn't have many analysts following it like BRCM does so you are unlikely to see much coming out about why it is a good buy at the new price.

The one thing I have figured out is that if both of us agree that going long something is a good idea, then it is a horrible idea ipso facto.*

Oh, well, you had ANGI today (good job) and I had LAD (which was a no-brainer on the buy and sell).

*your punishment for mentioning it is that you have to look up what "ipso facto" means. The next time, my entire post will be in foreign languages.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2013 , 12:20 AM
I took a look at the EGHT quarter as I thought it sounded interesting.

They missed on the bottom line, which isn't the end of the world. Revenue was in line with+20% growth. I didn't see any guidance. Margins are improving (and already were really good). They recently restructured their management as well.

The company itself seems to be doing pretty well. Customers are buying more products which was the main positive of the call. They're in a good business and their future looks good to me as the rep who spoke to Myrna said.

The problem with the stock (as far as I can tell) is all of this looks priced in. They already had a huge run and needed a big beat to keep momentum. These stocks are always hard to value, but above $11.50 is what my overvalued price will be for the next few months.

If they really get crushed in the coming days/weeks...it might be worth a look when the technicals turn bullish again. (For example if it gaps down tomorrow, I can see the stock price filling the gap on the way back up) but I would be in watch only mode until then.

Last edited by savant111; 10-24-2013 at 12:41 AM.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2013 , 12:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by berya
Profit target got hit today. +$3.6.
Nice buddy. I didn't see you were in it.

Do you think it's going lower or solely looking to boom gains?
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2013 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by savant111
I took a look at the EGHT quarter as I thought it sounded interesting.

They missed on the bottom line, which isn't the end of the world. Revenue was in line with+20% growth. I didn't see any guidance. Margins are improving (and already were really good). They recently restructured their management as well.

The company itself seems to be doing pretty well. Customers are buying more products which was the main positive of the call. They're in a good business and their future looks good to me as the rep who spoke to Myrna said.

The problem with the stock (as far as I can tell) is all of this looks priced in. They already had a huge run and needed a big beat to keep momentum. These stocks are always hard to value, but above $11.50 is what my overvalued price will be for the next few months.
Yep.
October 2013 Trading Thread Quote

      
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