October 2013 Trading Thread - Page 15 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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October 2013 Trading Thread

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10-14-2013 , 01:22 PM

#351

SretiCentV

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 3,693

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW

Ohh lookie , talks of a deal coming through this time , let us rally another 300 points again.

Dumped 25% of my SPY shares at 170.45. I need to look harder for better spots

Quote

10-14-2013 , 01:32 PM

#352

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,441

Quote:

Originally Posted by SretiCentV

I was going to bring up Shiller actually. I imagine if he predicted another crash we would have heard about it by now

Talking about the US stock market this year: "It does have an aspect of a bubble to it. I think it is highly priced," he said. "This reminds me of 1996, when ... people assaulted me for calling a bubble, because it lasted for another 3 ½ years. So you never know when these things will come to an end." - Robert Shiller (July 2013)

He tends to be a bit early on these things. Selling out of stocks in 1996 would have been a mistake. Same for getting out of housing in 2005.

Quote

10-14-2013 , 02:12 PM

#353

Jaug

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 340

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

I get the feeling way too many people are calling a "bubble" and a top here. The crash usually hits when no one is really expecting it, right now 50-70% of investor community expects a sharp fall within a year I feel.

Quote

10-14-2013 , 02:48 PM

#354

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,441

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaug

I agree. That doesn't mean we can't have a decent sized correction. Those just happen from time to time after a big run up. I'm a little under 15% long US equities right now (IVV, VIG and VTI), but a lot of that it because I have a big bet on municipal bonds.

Quote

10-14-2013 , 07:35 PM

#355

Unabridged

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,401

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaug

Bought AAPL450 call options expiring just before christmas. When debt ceiling deal is done I expect AAPL to soar.

why do you expect it to soar? AAPL is still way overpriced, it is currently worth more than google and amazon combined. iphones are no longer the best phones on the market, and everyday android is gaining market share against apple.

Quote

10-15-2013 , 07:52 AM

#356

Sujeabe

stranger

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 7

Myrna, you still holding KNDI?
I'm thinking about adding here.

Quote

10-15-2013 , 08:15 AM

#357

shortline99

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 38,000

everyone else watching this SPX level (looking back to early aug)? no news could finally be the bad news today this close to thurs.

also, what do people think of the likelihood of debt downgrades even with a resolution?

Quote

10-15-2013 , 08:17 AM

#358

shortline99

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 38,000

Also: Looking at declining MACD on subsequent market tops makes me very nervous to invest outright in this market.

Quote

10-15-2013 , 08:17 AM

#359

shortline99

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 38,000

also also - SLV breaking $20 here in overnight trading.

Quote

10-15-2013 , 10:05 AM

#360

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Deep ITM NFLX puts again. Lot of profit in from yesterday, some market fear and a big sell down. When this thing decides to have a sell off day, it sells off big. 15% trailing stop.

Quote

10-15-2013 , 10:43 AM

#361

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Bought a string of Nov 1st puts from 35.5 to 31 on MSFT for earnings, plus Jan '14 $30s. It's run up a lot. I'm long term super bullish on Microsoft but the bull thesis hasn't been evidenced yet, projections could contain all kinds of surprises with the NOK purchase.

Last edited by Truthsayer; 10-15-2013 at 10:52 AM.

Quote

10-15-2013 , 10:51 AM

#362

jb514

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,837

VISN so ridiculous

Quote

10-15-2013 , 10:56 AM

#363

homeboy604

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 3,360

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sujeabe

Myrna, you still holding KNDI?
I'm thinking about adding here.

looks like its forming a cup with handle. im looking to get in if it edges up another few percent.

Quote

10-15-2013 , 02:47 PM

#364

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 41,246

So far so good with VXX. market getting a bit panicy

Quote

10-15-2013 , 02:55 PM

#365

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Looks like the market is forming a classic bowl and deuce formation. Was actually starting to question my judgment buying puts today...lol

Quote

10-15-2013 , 09:39 PM

#366

SuperWhale

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,075

Long VXX weekly 15 puts at .40. Looking for debt nonsense resolution/can-kicking obviously.

Quote

10-16-2013 , 03:01 AM

#367

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,472

Quote:

Originally Posted by jb514

VISN so ridiculous

yeah I imagine it will do a ALTI type fade very soon. Couldn't find any pumps on stockreads but still...

Quote

10-16-2013 , 09:41 AM

#368

Jaug

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 340

Does anyone have a site where I can find real time (or slightly delayed) prices for options? I need to compare the US options to my Europe ones to see that I am getting a reasonable price.

Something similar to this: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL131221C00500000 (this does not show any data for today though)

Quote

10-16-2013 , 09:44 AM

#369

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 41,246

Good Bear/Bull battle in GMCR. I'd like to buy some around $60. No idea if the short interest can get it there.

Quote

10-16-2013 , 09:55 AM

#370

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaug

Does anyone have a site where I can find real time (or slightly delayed) prices for options? I need to compare the US options to my Europe ones to see that I am getting a reasonable price.

I don't know of anything free. You don't need real time to do a price comparison though. Google, Yahoo are delayed 15min for US. You just have to wait 15 min after open and you'll see the data.

I think you'll find options prices aren't far off parity, taking into account the different exercise abilities. There can't be a major discrepancy or it would be exploitable.

Quote

10-16-2013 , 10:09 AM

#371

Truthsayer

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,251

Waiting for that magic moment after the deal is announced and the market spikes when the market realizes that they're sitting on profits, the deal hasn't actually done anything for stocks, and there are clouds on the horizon and no more short term upside juice to gamble on.

Quote

10-16-2013 , 10:29 AM

#372

Jaug

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 340

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truthsayer

I think a lot of profits were taken the day that FED announced they will not taper in September. There was a huge sell on the news for that. Then markets got worried for the fiscal cliff / debt ceiling and sold off until a week ago, then market made it clear that deal was done. Now deal is not done, but market is acting like it is done. I dont think many people will take profit when deal is done to be honest. I expect new ATHs around the world as there is no taper from FED, decent earning reports and PE expansion.

I expect a stock like AAPL to soar in this environment.

Quote

10-16-2013 , 11:13 AM

#373

BigBiceps

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 6,205

Quote:

Originally Posted by Truthsayer

Having my worst week in months ... I can't capitulate this time though.

Quote

10-16-2013 , 12:28 PM

#374

Jaug

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 340

TS or someone else who trades with options, what happens fundamentally to the option if a company announces a public offering och common stock? Nothing?