Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam
Oftentimes with investing, it seems like things can start off sort of clear ... like with maybe a 70% chance of things going in a certain direction? But then half way through things always seem to start to get a bit more murky, as people who were buying decide to start to sell and stuff - and then things aren't always so clear any more when half the people want to go one way, and half want to go the other way. Then things start ping-ponging every which way
Meh - tomorrow's a holiday, so guess can see what things look like in the morning?
It could also be that things seem more clear when they are farther from the action. When things start happening, you realize that it was more complicated than it appeared at a distance, and the 70 % figure might have been an overestimation.
Alternatively, when the action picks up it's more difficult to zoom out and see the big picture, and the gritty details of the most action packed periods were something that you intuitively included in your 70 % model.
The first one is more often the case imo. Moderate your guesses if they are extreme or much different from the general opinion of experts.