For real, actually just dont come back please. If you do, it should be an apology to all the noobs that lost their savings because of oyu.

We dont need you to shill your complete utter garbage again. Let this thread die in peace

Sub $100 today?

Potentially. Fwiw, OP has no more eth. Well maybe a total of 5 or so scattered in decimal amounts across various addresses.

Not that crazy

OP capitulation hmmm... hmmm

Confirmed crazy.

Glad to hear that, I hope folks haven't lost too much but I'd be naive to believe as such. Good luck all.

I have lost a lot and I keep buying more. Capital losses and 2nd income from side gig making it a bit less depressing. It's funny/(sad?) because I had a target amount of $$ as a percent of net worth that I targeted to put in, that I can "afford to lose", but the crypto market keeps going down so I need to keep putting more and more money in to hit the target $$ amount in crypto I can afford to lose, if that makes sense. Regular market and FAANGs aren't doing too hot either. Brutal all around, thankfully I am still young and remain optimistic. Looking forward to buy the stock market dip in 2019, at least I'm pretty confident it's going to be higher when I retire than it is now. Crypto, there's a chance it goes to 0 - a chance I am willing to take.

Stop reading whatever you have read in the past. If you couldn't see wellll in advance that you would have 3+ years to get in at lows then you shouldn't be in.

Think will be nice buy opportunity if patient but waiting for bitcoin crash to $800-1000 first. Just my opinion but seems inevitable at this point.

You are a horrible, mean person. Your comments have low value.

You know what's easy?

Waiting for the price to crash so you can post.

----------

This podcast is interesting:
https://www.zeroknowledge.fm/52

The latest one is about governance with Gavin Wood and Vlad Zamfir.

1 guy got 100k+ eth stolen
The other guy has said proof of shart is coming soon since 2016


Try sticking to facts

https://breakermag.com/exclusive-con...trategy-shift/

A wall of nonsense. Emir Gun Sirer is a charlatan.

fwiw, and I know this is a hot take, eth is probably a much better long term bet than bitcoin.

• already won the public chain development war. if you buy the store of value meme, you own bitcoin. if you think public blockchains running code, tokens, etc. have a future, you should own ethereum. none of their competitors are going anywhere and are either securities, going to go broke, have no development or all of the above. eth has nearly every team that's doing anything useful, which matters.
  
• because of #1, they will win the scaling war assuming it's winnable. if you don't care about blockchains scaling, (you're probably wrong and) own bitcoin. if you think scaling will never happen - which is a real possibility - you should quit crypto. any large scaling improvements are virtually certain to wind up on eth before and better than anywhere else.
  
• if security tokens turn out to mean anything they are fairly likely to wind up on the eth chain, too.
  
• hovering around the beginning of the bubble's ethbtc ratio floor. any reversals are likely to be bigger in scale.

disclaimer: the author is not a crypto true believer and cashed the **** out early and mid this year except for the last handful of locked up ico bags that were always going to be bags (can't time bubbles so losing the last 50% was always the plan). nevertheless, those bags will be converted to ethereum and then cold storaged at the first opportunity. not financial advice.

Which team's building on top of Eth are doing useful things?

What is ETH's plan to scale?

Why would security tokens end up on Eth?

Why is an ethbtc reversal likely to be bigger in scale?

1)the handful of use cases that make any sense at the moment are online gambling (99% eth based, eos dapps are completely fake volume), games (gods unchained/decentraland aren't good but both are way better than what everyone else is doing) and the supply chain stuff IBM's working on. everything else is somewhere between a meme and hopium, but ten minute blocks guarantee that if anything -can- be built it will not be on bitcoin (please don't mention RSK as we hopefully both know that's a joke). all the ICOs are also tied to eth more or less permanently since the other alternatives won't exist for years or are securities; some small % of them won't be complete wastes of time.

2)almost irrelevant. if sharding, POS, plasma, etc. -can't- work then all of crypto is eventually buried into obscurity. that's a completely valid viewpoint and I'm undecided on how likely that is. if it's -possible- for any/all of these to work, eth will eventually implement them years ahead of bitcoin at best.

3)current STO protocol implementations are all using erc667 and 677 / 721 / other similar token types. the transfers have to be restricted, but that's already doable today using whitelisted addresses. there are some very good reasons for STOs to use a public chain for security and I don't really see this changing; there are private standard proposals but they aren't anywhere near as advanced and no one's using them atm.

4)what's more likely, $12k btc or $300 eth? (gross simplification and neither is happening anytime soon, but w/e)

if you're betting on yet another bubble coming up I think your next question should be "where does the FOMO come from?" and for bitcoin the answer to that is really vague at best, where eth has a bunch of lottery ticket possibilities and limited ethbtc downside vs upside. of course another perfectly good answer to all of this is "trick question, the bubble is dead forever / triple digits inc", but then everything dies more or less equally.

e: this is coming from someone who doesn't believe, never believed and played a bunch of very high stakes poker without using cards last year. if you think SOV is a thing or the total collapse of all fiat is a thing your answer will be completely different. that's cool, but that debate belongs in a different forum and you either believe or you don't.

It's good to hear an anti btc opinion that has been decently researched and a lot of the points you make are valid. I do think there are some big things you haven't adequately covered or grossly over-simplified.

Your 2nd point for instance generally covers base layer scaling which I don't think is going to work. There are going to be diminishing returns to base level layer scaling solutions even with a good working implementation of plasma because there will always be a limit to the blocks in both ETH and BTC. Eth couldn't handle 1 small sized dapp on its base layer, it isn't going to scale effectively anytime soon. You're going to need 2nd layer solutions to scaling and eth is far behind btc.

You mention various things like STOs or ICO projects baked into the eth network. If there are going to be serious institutional investment into the crypto space, esp in security tokens, that will take 5-10 years to happen and they'll be built on top of the network with the highest stability and security which will be btc. Eth will need to overtake BTC at some point in the near future and I can't see that happening because...

The eth token will not accrue significant value as a medium of exchange as it currently is. If people want to use the eth network, protocol or dapp then they'll buy eth, use the service they need to use it for and then sell excess currencies back into their store of value of choice. There will be an initial spike in demand as people buy eth to use some services on the network but in the long run, the token itself will not capture significant value in a high velocity ecosystem.

re: btc vs eth scaling: lightning is terrible. like 99.x% of crypto it's a project without a use case. it's been live for a year and has < 500 btc (up 300% in the past month! (very likely because one guy now has 75% of it)) across all channels combined, not because it's not ready but because the things I would possibly want to use something like LN to do are the things that bitcoin is worst suited for. we can debate about that too but in terms of getting the protocol ready to do something worthwhile, I'm very confident that eth can get there first by a mile if it is possible to do at all. whether and how possible it is will not be clear for a couple of years and one of the several reasons exiting all crypto forever is a valid strat / I don't think > 100 people alive on Earth could really argue this either way on the tech side.

STOs: I have direct knowledge in this area. bitcoin is not even in the conversation as a possibility. the major security exchange ICOs (tzero/polymath/securitize/openfinance/others) are various flavors of mostly bad and ~50% are doing their own protocols that are probably all doomed. the other 50% and nearly everyone else that didn't do an ICO is staying on ethereum. one of the roughly 187 reasons behind this is that you need native token support and the token has to be heavily restricted in different ways depending on the jurisdiction that issued it, something that bitcoin will never natively do. meanwhile, eth stablecoins alone (a regulated stablecoin token is both a prerequisite for an STO exchange and something that shares a lot of features with STOs) have $500M USD in play atm.

re: measure of velocity/value accrual, it's a significant issue but one I expect to be solved in the natural order of things because people with lots of eth who develop for it tend to like money. some protocol improvement is likely to 'fix' this, just like eth inflation is likely to dwindle further. yes, this is a gamble on a future event that no one has explicitly put on a roadmap, just like the other 200 things that could go wrong with crypto. if this bothered me, though, I would not bet on bitcoin, which has the exact same set of problems and a much more conservative (to put it mildly) development schedule.

if analog stays true, target is ~$40.

ethbtc is slowly approaching a critical area at 0.024 ish. It was the start of the massive bull market for eth last december. Its kinda terrifying to me that eth is sitting on that support right now as most coins are tightly correlated to btc. This is pretty hard to contextualize but think of it like this:


right now btcusd is about 5% off the lows it made about a week ago
ethusd is literally sitting at its low right now


0.024 breaking on eth would really unleash alot of pain and unwinding because there would be a big shift in how eth correlates itself to the directions of btc movement. What happens IDK. I dont even think $40 is likely, but i'm very sure that a lot of these altcoins are going to see an exact replay of what LTC did in 2014-2016. Ignored, de-correlated to btc, btc/alt mega crash and last to pump in a bitcoin bull run.

Lightning is terrible? Oh come on now, behave. You're lauding ETH for going after 5 different scaling solutions which each offer a whole new set of problems/securities issues and none of upgrades are close to being implemented. Lightning is still in beta and like most of crypto, its hard to use, hard to setup and maintain and the interface sucks. It will improve and businesses in a variety of sectors will be built on top of it, crypto games seems like an area that could really blossom.

I'm not as knowledgeable about the STO scene as you seem to be so I'm curious which projects/companies you think will become the main exchanges and protocol issuers for STOs? What sort of ST markets do u see becoming huge? One possible usecase for ethereum could be a future STO craze similar to the ICO boom but I'm not as bullish as a lot of other people are on STOs.

p.s. Saying there is limited downside to investing in eth because the price is only $100 is pretty lol. I'm currently shorting it.

here's me on LN from a year ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comment...isnt_going_to/

LN is Bad. the UI/UX being stunningly terrible is sort of beside the point and expected, but it's mostly Bad instead of just bad because it's a solution looking for a problem. the one use case crypto genuinely has today is to send lots of money to someone else you don't trust quickly and cheaply; LN is a way to send very small amounts of money to the same person over and over (if they're always online and I want to use $10 to send $5 and...). if bitcoin were the only coin on the planet some people would grit their teeth and use it but since it isn't, anyone who wants to do that can use any of the other half dozen coins that have sub 1 minute blocks and fiat gateways. even bitpay accepts bcash (lol); there is no target audience for this. also, anyone using bitcoin as a chain for crypto games is out of their mind / smart contracts exist (and off chain or secondary chain stuff is pretty easy to do - the much bigger problem with games is that everything is a cash grab and no one's really figured out that blockchain shouldn't be the primary slash only selling point). the solutions eth has are all far away and could well not work, but they represent viable use cases to solve problems that lightning doesn't. if bitcoin users wanted lightning the average transaction value wouldn't be $22K.

shorting ethusd in 2018 is obv fine, my strengths were never in finding bottoms or price points so I'll leave that to telegram. but if we're talking about ethbtc I think the downside is increasingly limited and the long term bottom is 'close'. [assuming bitcoin itself doesn't drop to sub 1k or something death spirally, ofc that's exitallcrypto time.] over the next a 5 year window, if (big if) blockchain survives as something people want to build on at all, I think you'll be massively surprised at how irrelevant bitcoin's advantage is.

STOs will be a 2020 or 2021 thing. I expect all 2019 STOs to be **** that couldn't raise money elsewhere and ofc the upcoming recession will neuter capital raising anyway. the second wave will be big, though, because the protocols themselves are a big tech upgrade and anyone doing it themselves saves millions in fees over an IPO. raising capital in 2030 will look a lot closer to "send some people internet money for digitized equity" even if none of the rest of it survives. whether that's on ethereum, some other platform or NASDAQ Digital is TBD.

$86! :O