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Coronavirus Coronavirus

07-20-2020 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
It would be bad if vaccines are just ineffective altogether but that's very unlikely to be the case given what we know of sars-cov-2 and other coronaviruses in general. There is no indication that this particular strand of coronavirus has HIV like ability to evade anti-bodies and other parts of the immune system.

I said all the way in Feb/March that every big pharma has the capability to develop vaccine candidates by the end of the year. The question was always how much of the testing/approval process do we want to shortcircuit and how much risk we want to take on in terms of manufacturing before approval.

Trump is screwing up a lot of things but he's done well giving away quite a bit of money to manufacture vaccine candidates. A lot of those billions will be "wasted" but we should be glad promising candidates will be ready for mass deployment as soon as they are proven safe and effective (to the extent possible given compressed time frame.)
I am curious about your statement I bolded and italicized above and would love for you to flesh it out, if you have any insights?


To my understanding and readings to date mankind has not ever been able to develop a single vaccine for a single strain of corona virus (below and some with subsets within the larger class) and as such if we do accomplish getting a Vaccine this time (fingers crossed), it will mean mankind has overcome something we have strived to do prior but that has always evaded us. I am hoping that this increased 'financial incentive' we are seeing all gov'ts provide to labs is enough but sometimes it is not money that is the issue.


----------
Common human coronaviruses

Human coronaviruses were first identified in the mid-1960s. The known strains of coronaviruses that can infect people are:



-229E (alpha coronavirus)
- NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
- OC43 (beta coronavirus)
- HKU1 (beta coronavirus)
- MERS-CoV (the beta coronavirus)
- SARS-CoV (the beta coronavirus)
- SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus, COVID-19)
07-20-2020 , 11:18 AM
I just read through some of the prepared testimony to a house investigative committee on c-19. It seems fairly optimistic on the vaccine front, and is probably worth reading. It's very clear that both Moderna and AstraZeneca are ramping up production capability in advance of regulatory approval for commercial use. Moderna testified that government money to do this was 483 million but another 1.3 billion to do so came from shareholders, although the form of that contribution was not clear.

Both Moderna and AZ report antibody creation in every phase 1/2 test subject with no serious side effects. Test populations remain small and demographically limited, ie 18-55 years old, so obv conclusions are preliminary only.

A lobbyist friend emailed me pdfs of the testimony, so I can't post a web link. if interested, PM me with an email address and can forward later today. All FWIW -- I generally regard most congressional testimony as a clown show.
07-20-2020 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
Again to the question of 'What could Trump do differently'?

Getting people, especially young people to disrupt their lives, to accomplish the things necessary to re-open this economy in a quick and enduring way requires VOLUNTARY buy in from all if you want to avoid authoritarian steps.

His constant minimization of the threat, which he did again in this weekends Wallace interview on Fox referring to it as 'just the sniffles' and then also always repeating 'it will just go away', will have the opposite effect of WHAT IS NEEDED and being CALLED FOR by Governors with regards to wanting 'young people to avoid unnecessary gatherings, use masks and socially distance'.

Debating whether Trumps assessments can be argued as technically accurate is missing the point. It is what BEHAVIOUR those comments drive and how they undermine both the CDC's push to educate and change behaviour and the Governors attempts to regain control in their States.

If young people believe 'it is just the sniffles' and 'it will just go away regardless of what I personally do', then getting them to change behaviour and do the things that would allow for a quicker and enduring re-opening of the economy becomes that much more difficult.

This is just one more important thing that is undeniably on Trump, himself, in terms of undermining the efforts to get a better result in the US.

Eh it's all over in November anyway. He committed one of the single greatest presidential sepukus of our time. He'll be in the hall of shame with the handful of other 1-termers.
07-20-2020 , 11:22 AM
anybody think any of the states are starting to roll over ?

to me it looks like Arizona might be
07-20-2020 , 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Treesong
I just read through some of the prepared testimony to a house investigative committee on c-19. It seems fairly optimistic on the vaccine front, and is probably worth reading. It's very clear that both Moderna and AstraZeneca are ramping up production capability in advance of regulatory approval for commercial use. Moderna testified that government money to do this was 483 million but another 1.3 billion to do so came from shareholders, although the form of that contribution was not clear.

Both Moderna and AZ report antibody creation in every phase 1/2 test subject with no serious side effects. Test populations remain small and demographically limited, ie 18-55 years old, so obv conclusions are preliminary only.

A lobbyist friend emailed me pdfs of the testimony, so I can't post a web link. if interested, PM me with an email address and can forward later today. All FWIW -- I generally regard most congressional testimony as a clown show.
This post by Howard Treesong highlights both the benefits and challenges of this current hunt for the vaccine and the government provided inducements.


There is no doubt that companies 'In the Hunt' are getting big valuation boosts and lots of money, both from government and private investors' as all chase the holy grail, a vaccine. Also with the government willing to 'pre-purchase' stockpiles of 'yet to be proven' meds to de-risk the companies that removes any prior type more cautious approach and steps are being put aside that typically would be taken.

If any of these efforts result in a vaccine the above will all be a very good things and therefore we can see why gov't is prompting it.


On the negative side however is that the incentive by EVERY company in the hunt to be overly optimistic is huge. Many have suggested Moderna hopping into this area when they have never brought a single drug to market and having their stock catapulted into being one of the most valuable (by market cap) was deliberate and shrewd. You can find some suggesting they have a Theranos type bubble going on.

I like to remain optimistic and as such hope the substance exceeds any hype by a large degree.

But also, due to gov'ts wanting to be optimistic and putting immense pressure on their scientific advisory teams to be 'optimistic', we can see how the pressures change the scientists typically more 'cautious view' into one of 'belief' and 'optimism'.

I have no doubt that without that gov't pressure both the 'belief in' and 'timelines' for a vaccine would be much more muted and cautious and caveated as we saw in the earlier days but which changed in messaging later.

So lesson is for every individual reader is to caveat any such info knowing the biases, pressures, inducements, at play here.
07-20-2020 , 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllinPoker
anybody think any of the states are starting to roll over ?

to me it looks like Arizona might be

What is rolling over?
07-20-2020 , 04:29 PM
In regards to never finding a vaccine for prior corona virus, its my understanding that it was never this necessary before. Ie not as infectious as 19. The common cold is a corona virus but its no where close to being as deadly either.

Secondly, virus’s tend to mutate to less deadly forma bot the other way around. The goal of a virus is to keep the host alive not kill it. Now, it *may* become more contagious though, which helps it survive. But these mutations take a long time, not a couple of months. The less it spreads, the less it had a chance to mutate as well.


Thirdly, the Oxford vaccine is a somewhat new type of vaccine. Not sure of the science but I believe its more holistic in the sense that it boosts T cell response as well as antibodies? Not sure, I need to read up on it.

The immune response is not an A + B situation. The body’s immune system is just that....a system that fights many different pathogens, etc. It involves, antibodies, T Cells, etc.

Again Im not a scientist, nor do I understand it well, but my point is that average person doesnt understand this either and that its not just antibody + virus. More complicated than that.
07-20-2020 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
Secondly, virus’s tend to mutate to less deadly forma bot the other way around.
They can mutate any way that chance happens to take them. Given that the SARS family's previous iteration has a 10% death rate, and MERS is 35%, there's an ugly tail risk there.
Quote:
The goal of a virus is to keep the host alive not kill it.
The virus has no goal. It doesn't seek to keep anyone alive or kill them. It bumps randomly into cells like a billiard ball.

Smallpox was around for 200 generations of human life, killed 30-60% of its hosts, took 300-500 million lives in the 20th century alone (while there was a partial innoculation available). It certainly didn't "try to keep its host alive not kill it", nor did it mutate away from being highly lethal.
Quote:
Now, it *may* become more contagious though, which helps it survive. But these mutations take a long time, not a couple of months.
The mutations are probabilistic, they can happen when they happen.
Quote:
The less it spreads, the less it had a chance to mutate as well.
Yes which is why anyone sane goes for eradication. Unfortunately experts are mostly worthless people in novel situations who can't think outside their habits, which is why the world didn't.
07-20-2020 , 06:52 PM
For the mask lovers, here's what the WHO says:
Quote:
Originally Posted by World Health Organization
Advice to decision makers on the use of masks for healthy people in community settings

As described above, the wide use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not supported by current evidence and carries uncertainties and critical risks.
Here's the New England Journal of Medicine:
Quote:
“We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic."
So you're all blaming this pandemic on Trump for not wearing/advocating a mask because:

1. You're rational people who've evaluated the evidence and come to evidence based conclusions about the cause of this pandemic, OR

2. You're irrational science deniers with a political hardon from Trump wanting to blame someone

QED I think.
07-20-2020 , 08:01 PM
Trump trying to rally his supporters by beating the Patriot drum and tying it to 'beating the China virus', in an attempt to slow the spread in States that typically vote Republican but are tilting away from him.

I look forward to the arguments that Trump was always pro mask and had nothing to do with his supporters fighting it and if wide spread mask wearing finally gets adopted and the curve gets bent downward I look forward to Trumpsters saying 'mask would have done nothing prior but they do work now because Trump said so.'

07-20-2020 , 08:17 PM
Please wear the mask to fight China Virus, it is Patriotic and MAGA to do so

Mask usage about to skyrocket
07-20-2020 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
Trump trying to rally his supporters by beating the Patriot drum and tying it to 'beating the China virus', in an attempt to slow the spread in States that typically vote Republican but are tilting away from him.

I look forward to the arguments that Trump was always pro mask and had nothing to do with his supporters fighting it and if wide spread mask wearing finally gets adopted and the curve gets bent downward I look forward to Trumpsters saying 'mask would have done nothing prior but they do work now because Trump said so.'
Widespread mask wearing has been adopted. Already 57% of the US populace wears a mask when they leave the house all the time. Even more than that wear it sometimes where it matters (like shops). That's as high as Germany (which has great infection numbers) and far higher than many places with eradication or low spread. Mask wearing is a silly sideshow at this point. It would have mattered a lot more before distancing started and when no one was wearing them and when it was spreading far faster than now - precisely when the CDC and WHO said NOT to wear masks.

You should be screaming murder at the CDC and WHO for their stupidity, but instead you're an idiot screaming at Trump for something that will make almost no difference even if 100% of the populace started wearing them. With 57% already wearing "all the time" and more wearing some of the time, the effect of further mask wearing beyond those numbers would be tiny. It's a silly red herring.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Please wear the mask to fight China Virus, it is Patriotic and MAGA to do so

Mask usage about to skyrocket
Yep, that's a great line.
07-20-2020 , 08:59 PM
TS, that’s just BS. Mask wearing helps if you are sick and keeps you from possibly infecting others. More so, as I stated, the pressure Trump and his administration put on re-opening before the new cases had been tailing off for fourteen days in any states, is certainly a big part of why cases surged again. Social distancing and keeping bars and restaurants closed was necessary to do but Trump wanted so badly to jumpstart the economy. Similarly his administration is doing the exact same with schools. Cases will surge again if they are allowed to pressure states and schools into re opening before the virus has been controlled. You know better TS. This is sad coming for you. Honestly
07-20-2020 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
So lesson is for every individual reader is to caveat any such info knowing the biases, pressures, inducements, at play here.
Thanks. That probably didn't occur to most of us reading it. I'm sure it didn't occur to Howard when he posted it.

Should we just completely discard the positive effect that pressures, and especially inducements, have in speeding up a vaccine since they don't fit your personal bias?
07-20-2020 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Please wear the mask to fight China Virus, it is Patriotic and MAGA to do so

Mask usage about to skyrocket
he does know how to message and market to his base. NO one should deny that. Sad he used it for the opposite purposes prior to minimize mask use amongst his base.


Lets see if his base finally turns that corner or if they continue to act in defiance.
07-20-2020 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
For the mask lovers, here's what the WHO says:


Here's the New England Journal of Medicine:

So you're all blaming this pandemic on Trump for not wearing/advocating a mask because:

2. You're irrational science deniers with a political hardon from Trump wanting to blame someone

QED I think.
You mean like the 30 percent of REPUBLICANS who don't trust Trump when it comes to Coronavirus? Or the independent voters, a preponderance of whom also don't find him trustworthy?

Sure...its just us crazy lefties. Keep telling yourself that, TS.
07-20-2020 , 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de captain
Thanks. That probably didn't occur to most of us reading it. I'm sure it didn't occur to Howard when he posted it.

Should we just completely discard the positive effect that pressures, and especially inducements, have in speeding up a vaccine since they don't fit your personal bias?
Well that would be stupid since i touted the positives, so I guess if you are stupid, sure.

Many people, will hear Corporations hype up their timelines and progress and then hear Govt' officials do the same and that will be enough for them to not question.

Again my point is that both parties have very strong reasons to be overly optimistic and that should be built in by us.

I am hopeful and optimistic but know to take what they say with a grain of salt while hoping they prove right.

Last edited by Cuepee; 07-20-2020 at 09:20 PM.
07-20-2020 , 09:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
Again to the question of 'What could Trump do differently'?

Getting people, especially young people to disrupt their lives, to accomplish the things necessary to re-open this economy in a quick and enduring way requires VOLUNTARY buy in from all if you want to avoid authoritarian steps.

His constant minimization of the threat, which he did again in this weekends Wallace interview on Fox referring to it as 'just the sniffles' and then also always repeating 'it will just go away', will have the opposite effect of WHAT IS NEEDED and being CALLED FOR by Governors with regards to wanting 'young people to avoid unnecessary gatherings, use masks and socially distance'.

Debating whether Trumps assessments can be argued as technically accurate is missing the point. It is what BEHAVIOUR those comments drive and how they undermine both the CDC's push to educate and change behaviour and the Governors attempts to regain control in their States.

If young people believe 'it is just the sniffles' and 'it will just go away regardless of what I personally do', then getting them to change behaviour and do the things that would allow for a quicker and enduring re-opening of the economy becomes that much more difficult.

This is just one more important thing that is undeniably on Trump, himself, in terms of undermining the efforts to get a better result in the US.
Here's my single question for you:

On what date should Trump have come out and said that all citizens are required to wear a mask every time they leave their home?
07-20-2020 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
In regards to never finding a vaccine for prior corona virus, its my understanding that it was never this necessary before. Ie not as infectious as 19. The common cold is a corona virus but its no where close to being as deadly either.
Pretty sure finding a vaccine for the common cold would be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Probably a Nobel Prize too.
07-20-2020 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gorvnice
TS, that’s just BS. Mask wearing helps if you are sick and keeps you from possibly infecting others. More so, as I stated, the pressure Trump and his administration put on re-opening before the new cases had been tailing off for fourteen days in any states, is certainly a big part of why cases surged again. Social distancing and keeping bars and restaurants closed was necessary to do but Trump wanted so badly to jumpstart the economy. Similarly his administration is doing the exact same with schools. Cases will surge again if they are allowed to pressure states and schools into re opening before the virus has been controlled. You know better TS. This is sad coming for you. Honestly
I don't want to get involved with the poo flinging but re masks, you raise the depressing bit about their usage. In the UK and other places mask wearing is being pushed now because it encourages people to go out and mix with other people when they don't need to.

Best thing the government could do on masks is have an education program on how to use them properly because some very sizable proportion of the mask wearers use them so badly, and behave so cavalierly now they have a heavily fingered mask around their neck, that it's quite possibly a net negative even if they have to be out.
07-20-2020 , 11:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de captain
Here's my single question for you:

On what date should Trump have come out and said that all citizens are required to wear a mask every time they leave their home?
I don’t have a date but certainly around the time when states began re opening it should have been mandated to be much slower regarding bars and restaurants indoors and also using masks
07-20-2020 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
I don't want to get involved with the poo flinging but re masks, you raise the depressing bit about their usage. In the UK and other places mask wearing is being pushed now because it encourages people to go out and mix with other people when they don't need to.

Best thing the government could do on masks is have an education program on how to use them properly because some very sizable proportion of the mask wearers use them so badly, and behave so cavalierly now they have a heavily fingered mask around their neck, that it's quite possibly a net negative even if they have to be out.
Agreed but we are so far from that here. People refuse to wear masks but when they do they should be educated how to properly wear them. It’s not easy and not fun to wear a mask. I personally hate it and have chosen to remain mostly isolated. My wife and I have basically been self isolating for over five months now with very few public interactions. It sucks
07-20-2020 , 11:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gorvnice
I don’t have a date but certainly around the time when states began re opening it should have been mandated to be much slower regarding bars and restaurants indoors and also using masks
Why no date? If we're going to Monday morning quarterback then we should be able to come up with the correct answer in hindsight. If you can't even come up with the correct answer in hindsight how do you expect someone to have come up with the perfect answer in the moment with incomplete, and conflicting information.

Most, if not all of the states, began reopening before meeting Federal guidelines. Governors have repeatedly tried to assert their rights to control their own states during this pandemic.

Do you even know whether or not Trump, or the Federal government, have the legal authority to mandate nationwide mask wearing?




Again, On what date should Trump have mandated mask wearing? We have the value of hindsight so it should be easy, now that you can look back with perfect information, to give a date on when it should have been done.
07-20-2020 , 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gorvnice
Agreed but we are so far from that here. People refuse to wear masks but when they do they should be educated how to properly wear them. It’s not easy and not fun to wear a mask. I personally hate it and have chosen to remain mostly isolated. My wife and I have basically been self isolating for over five months now with very few public interactions. It sucks
You realize you’re basically making the same point TS is making which is that masks help but aren’t a game changer in that they won’t reduce the spread that much especially in light of all the crappy ways people use them.

Hey I wear a mask in places but I have no illusions that I’m protected significantly from being infected. The chances of me spreading the virus are reduced sure.
07-21-2020 , 12:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de captain
Why no date? If we're going to Monday morning quarterback then we should be able to come up with the correct answer in hindsight. If you can't even come up with the correct answer in hindsight how do you expect someone to have come up with the perfect answer in the moment with incomplete, and conflicting information.

Most, if not all of the states, began reopening before meeting Federal guidelines. Governors have repeatedly tried to assert their rights to control their own states during this pandemic.

Do you even know whether or not Trump, or the Federal government, have the legal authority to mandate nationwide mask wearing?

Again, On what date should Trump have mandated mask wearing? We have the value of hindsight so it should be easy, now that you can look back with perfect information, to give a date on when it should have been done.
Firstly, I am not expecting someone to have come up with a "perfect" answer. I think it was fair that in the very beginning, when both the WHO and Fauci said masks were not necessary, that Trump also didn't say masks were required.

Later, as understanding of the virus progressed, and evidently the US got enough PPE to enable the greater population to buy and use masks, it then made sense to encourage or even require the population to use masks.

You ask me for a firm date and I won't give it, because I don't agree with your fundamental premise. Trump, around Easter, said he wanted the churches to be packed and tried to pressure that result.

He got enough pushback that he backed off of his Easter assault on closures. But the fact that he continuously pressured states, restaurants, churches, bars and other risky activities to re-open in the face of uncontrolled community spread--was incredibly irresponsible.

It was poor leadership, not just "imperfect", but I would argue inept leadership.

Encouraging the opening of large churches and congregations, which he has done from the beginning and continues to do despite all of the evidence that singing, chanting and being in close proximity indoors is the riskiest of all behaviors--that is fundamentally horrible leadership.

So I will not give a firm date because I don't think one exists. But I can say that his Easter deadline which he desperately pedaled, was part of the pressure that encouraged states and communities to re-open more quickly and with less safeguards than was appropriate.

Trump continues to pressure states to stay open and even to continue with schools opening, even in states where the virus is surging currently.

I am not using hindsight to say that this is incredibly poor leadership. I'd be lying if I said I know how many people died or how many could be saved. Why would I make up numbers?

It's enough to believe that he has performed poorly, and the majority of the country agrees with me based on poll after poll regarding Trump's coronavirus performance.

Nothing I've said is controversial unless you are trying to nitpick, imo.

As far as masks not working, I agree they are imperfect and that education on wearing them needs improvement. But rather than throwing up our hands and eschewing masks at all, we should encourage them (as TS used to advocate, even saying we need more shaming) to be worn and then try to implement better education.

      
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