I put my range at 6 to 10 years for USA and Canada to recover economically.

My friend says 10-15.

What say you? My 6 was the most optimistic and relied on a vaccine, or covid basically dying out.

lol facts... any sources ?

so masks are good to reduce spread, trump doesn't promote them/wear them. However nothing bad could have possibly come from that. sweet logic

Do you take fox news and trumps rhetoric orally or anally?

I'm not advocating people listen to me. I'm pointing out that a "respected" poster has been drinking the trump koolaide. However its all good i've seen your takes before so no surprise your defending TS. Be careful w the covid as your breathing from the mouth might pose a challenge.

I think WFH will increase urbanization, not decrease.

The less office face time you have, the more premium there is to live in a "knowledge center" where you have off-work opportunities to learn from other knowledge workers and network (for more job opportunities for example.)

We already see this a lot in professional service industries such as legal and banking becoming more concentrated in major cities (NYC namely for legal and banking). If you don't need face time, there is no reason to engage your local mid/smaller firm to do your offering when NY bankers/lawyers with more experience, expertise, and access to capital (human and financial) can do the job better.

You see this with freelance coders in SF working at WeWork and other shared spaces as well. They are in SF because they have to be to find opportunities for higher paying jobs and to learn.

2 or 3, maybe. My time line is basically vaccines ready for global distribution in a bit less than a year.

After that, I think people will adjust and just accept Covid-19 as part of life. We will probably have frequent vaccine refreshers.

Yes, it's been thoroughly discussed with heaps of data provided. Even lots of pretty graphs.
Nothing meaningful has come from it if you look at the data, correct. It may in time. The data shows it clearly hasn't yet. And Trump's effect is far less than that of the CDC and WHO, who openly told people during the worst of the pandemic spread not to wear masks and that there was little evidence for their efficacy. Why mention Trump and not them? There have been minimal deaths (<15% of total) since the CDC did a 180 and advised mask wearing. It's all very cut and dried. I base my opinions on reason and data. You on the other hand:
A towering intellectual who's clearly not at all gone in the head with hateful political bias. And that's not the best of it:
Who says stuff like that? Why is it that every Trump hater on here is so obviously a loser? Stay in the politics forum, it was designed to contain people like yourself.

Basically if you listen to Toothsayer it is the Dem's who are responsible for the spread as they listened to the CDC who early on said 'no' to wearing the masks.

Now post the CDC making it clear they support mask wearing and only Trump and his Trumpsters fighting that he says 'I have traveled across europe all thru this pandemic (lol) and seen first hand that no countries are using masks well. So saying mask use would make things better is bogus. Don't blame Trump.

He believes both can be true at the same time because... Trump logic.

No, that's not the reason they're most of the spread. I don't know why Dems are most of the spread. But they are.

And they're not "responsible" in the moral sense - no one except China and the loser experts who screwed this up are responsible for this - but they were the vast majority of the spread. Hence the claim that was made here that Trump not wearing a mask has been responsible for lots of deaths is nonsensical. That's all. It's such a simple and correct point that you morons keep arguing.

Trump isn't "fighting" mask wearing, where do you get that idea? They're just not pushing it strongly.
Are you calling me a liar about traveling in Europe?
No it's not bogus, blanket mask wearing would probably make things somewhat better at this point (it would have made a huge difference before distancing/shutdowns). The thing is, people who haven't been through hell with Corona and aren't Asian seem to suck at mask wearing. And there seems to be just about no correlation between mask wearing and deaths or infection spread:



More people are wearing masks in massive-spread USA than they are in textbook-handling Taiwan or near zero, rapidly contained Australia. Go figure? There's the same amount of mask wearing in high death Sweden as there in low death Finland and Denmark. Infection-controlled Germany has about the same mask wearing as infection-spreading USA.

And the USA is basically crushing other English speaking countries with similar cultures on mask wearing. Mask wearing is clearly not the big differential here. So what is? You don't give a **** because you've got Orange Fever, you're here for politics instead of truth.

At this point with already substantial distancing, masks are low on the things that matter (before distancing it was extremely high on the list of things that mattered). For example, the UK is doing a nice job crushing this with merely testing and tracing (few wear masks). Now that we have large scale tests and more social distancing, masks are less important than they were. So why are you talking about masks, and blaming Trump's lack of mask wearing for past problems? Because you're morons wanting to push a political agenda rather than rational people doing a factor analysis and looking at data.
There's no incompatibility at all.

On the contrary, come back to me when you understand the difference between why and if. This is really simple, even for you:

1. Claim was made that Trump's lack of mask wearing caused a lot of this

2. Claim refuted by pointing out (with heaps of data) that Democrats are the large majority of spreaders, who hate Trump and over whom he had little influence. And that both the WHO and CDC advised against mask wearing when it mattered most.

3. Idiots and losers (who are SURE Trump is to blame, they know it in their hearts) have their mind blown by their inability to follow simple logic and data, and project their own cognitive dissonance onto me.

You people are insane.

The data in Sweden looks like they are at some kind of meaningful population immunity. Mobility data shows more activity, yet deaths, intensive care, and cases are all trending much lower. This may show what a reasonably open economy can look like once a meaningful fraction of superspreaders are immune.

Sweden also never closed schools for kids under 16.

There's zero chance they're anywhere near population immunity. They might have a 5-7% infected rate. Your superspreader theory is also wrong or NY wouldn't have 0.3-0.5% dead in some suburbs

It's like that all over Europe. It's summer, behavior has changed greatly, and it takes a lot longer for the infection to spread with lower infection spread rates (1.5^6 = 11; 3^ 6 = 729 for a 70x differential in cases 6 weeks after opening from changed behavior). Immune superspreaders have nothing at all to do with it.

German shows that. Only 1.3% have antibodies and they have a similar trajectory to other heavily infected countries.



There is no meaningful herd immunity anywhere except in maybe the places where 0.5% of the population died. The needle hasn't meaningfully moved from where we were before the pandemic in terms of potential spread under full opening.

Stockholm is at those levels of deaths.

https://www.nicholaslewis.org/why-he...-than-thought/

lol at Trump not fighting mask wearing when his defiance of it is reflected directly by his supporters State to State and their defiance.

Your denial of that shows you simply will not concede even the most obvious facts to defend Trump.

What you need to say is 'his double speak on the issue gives him a pass on all responsibility in your opinion'.

And look, smarter people than you know why State to State 'Dems' have more cases of covid and are impacted more. This is not the mystery you pretend it is.

Dems being affected to a large degree are the POC and working poor in each State. These people make up a massively disproportionate number of the 'workers in grocery stores, restaurants, First line responders, and users of transit', etc where COvid tends to run amok once introduced. They then tend to take it home to areas of higher density and worse healthcare.

So if Covid keeps being introduced, and it does not matter if it is by a non mask wearing Republican or a mask wearing Dem, it will run thru those communities like wild fire and take its toll.

So yes, in a State, where even if the ONLY ones bringing it are theoretically non mask wearing Republicans, the POC Dems will still pay the steepest price.


You then take that and think, see it is the Dems who cause it because your simplistic brain cannot connect things.

And no I do not believe you were traveling country to country thru Europe during the height of the pandemic. I don't give you that much credit to circumvent the lockdowns.

Here’s my personal data and experience with Covid-19 in New Orleans, lol sample size obv but wanted to share:

Acquired Covid-19 symptoms — mild fever 99.6F origin & peak 102.1F/headache/light cough/loss of taste and smell 3/26

Nasal swab tested for Covid-19 3/29

Symptoms completely relieved 4/1

Test results come back positive 4/2

Self quarantine 4/2-4/15

Antibody test #1 5/14(results 5/16 = positive)
Note: This was done at an Urgent Care facility. They asked me multiples times before paying out of pocket if I had tested positive for Covid-19. I obv replied yes. The reason they were asking was due to the fact that only ~1/20(~5%) of antibody test results were coming back as positive, and many people who paid out of pocket had complained/felt duped. Small sample obv, but this number correlates w/ TS ~6% estimation on antibodies.

Antibody test #2 6/30(results 7/2 = positive)
Note: Seems like I have had antibodies for 60-90 days

I plan on repeating antibody tests every 30-45 days to see how long I keep them.

Happy to answer any questions as well.

Thanks for sharing Witty

It's only not a mystery if you're a moron.

Except this isn't true. Spain has done extensive studies across all categories, and there isn't a great deal of differentiation in covid status by profession. For example, remote office workers have the same rate of corona antibodies as retail workers. Low income roughly the same rate of corona as high income. This is a surprising result of course, but this is a large study and reality tends to be surprising.

So you're admitting masks don't work and even wearing them it "runs like wildfire through these communities"? That's great, you agree with me then that Trump's mask wearing makes little difference.
So if it "spread like wildfire" through POC Dems wearing masks (brought by evil mask wearing Republicans"), then how good are masks? This is very funny man.
This is really quite funny man. I know you think you have the answer, but that's not reality. Connecting the dots in your own little head into a narrative is not enough. That doesn't make the narrative real. Reality is a tricky thing, which is why we invented science. Science says that the things you think are causing it to be spread by Democrats do NOT appear to be the reason.
It's not the height of the pandemic, Europe has it well under control and reopened borders on July 1st.

And here are some further numbers from that large Spanish study.

Population density is completely uncorrelated to infection rate in Spain:

Population density:



Corona infection rates:



It might even be inversely correlated looking at that graph.

Income level is also completely uncorrelated to infection rate in Spain:



Numbers are similar for professions, with retail workers among the least infected of all worker groups. Cupee, is it Trump's fault that your simplistic notions which you're sure are correct are just plain wrong?

It is funny people jump on Trump on this. It was the ****ing WHO and CDC who are suppose to be medical expert told people there is no need to wear mask in the first place, and of cause no need for border control back in January.

Trump is supposed to be a POS according to most media and not even a ****ing medical expert.

The leader in the medical field is not Trump, to blame him (he obviously not know any better) is just silly.

So if people don’t have to wear masks because of “muh freedom” why should I have to wear pants? #ballsoutformuhfreedom

You don’t have to wear pants actually.

Wear your pants on your head. That way you have your freedom and some protection.

TS, if I would for the sake of discussion support your thesis that Trump has not made any large incorrect political decisions in terms of corona, would you at least agree that he has been a terrible leader in terms of communication to the public?

He has consistently spread incorrect, non-scientific messages with the goal of downplaying corona. Political leaders have an important role to play to make sure the public takes it serious.

Do you think this has not helped the result that a large % of USA population is not taking it seriously?

Also, first results of restrictions being lifted in Europe were hopeful, but it is now turning. Multiple countries struggling with the start of a 2nd wave. Belgium is one to look out for in coming days.

I expect average new infections in Europe, especially when excluding Russia, to start increasing again. And restructions will become tougher again.

Here's an article I came across that says T-cell analysis from blood samples in Sweden revealed that like 30% of the population had likely been infected and become immune as of May, so whatever population it came from has likely reached herd immunity. I didn't read the paper (which is a preprint) because I'm going to bed now.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...vid19-immunity

How are you defining the recovery?

My best guess would be that real GDP will be back to the level it was (i.e. end of 2019 level) by the end of 2021, but my error bars are pretty massive... and definitely large risks to the downside.

In terms of catching up to the counterfactual economic trajectory (i.e. assuming COVID never happened), there's good evidence that economies never fully recover or catch-up to where they would've been.
(A 'recovery' in those terms will easily be 10+ years)

Also, have been sporadically following this thread since March'ish. Haven't posted in years, but have appreciated your insight, Tooth. Consistently great.