Maybe you won't find a place that is counting any better than Italy because it is inherently hard to count deaths in real time when every system is overwhelmed by an epidemic.

Another example is France, which is only reporting hospital deaths.

This makes me worry that the current death plateau in Italy is not real.

Is there any reason not to throw spare money into big name company stocks that are down right now?

It's impossible for Trump to RE-think anything.

I was talking about Cuomo. Cuomo was pretty clear that he isn't sure that what we're doing is the right thing.

To put differently, he is saying, 10 years from now, with the benefit of hindsight, better options may have been available.

Damn human rights, I knew they would eventually come back to bite us in the ass

Getting infected with the virus and then going to work at a hospital is worlds safer than any conflict zone for 20 yr olds.

i don't think we've seen the bottom yet

but full disclosure, i have zero exposure to the market and am not about to start yoloing my way into buying stocks

will probably buy a few k worth of stuff in 2-3 weeks but really playing it day by day

if we are anything like italy - the worst is still a good 2-3 weeks ahead of us at least

Italy hasn't peaked yet, 919 deaths. This is crazy. This is extremely scary, Italy has almost been in lock down for 3 weeks now.

fyp

perhaps they may finally engage in asian style lockdown now

Unless you believe the death rate in Italy is 10,6% pre-peak, number of new cases is useless in Italy. They are not testing everyone. In Lombardy 40% of tests are positive.

would you kindly stop with the gratuitous politarding?

that's crazy, this thing can cause permanent lung damage.

Why is examining political incentives for why numbers would be pushed in certain direction off-limits when it comes to speculating on "real" numbers of deaths?

phrases like "british buffoon" and "idiot in the white house" aren't helpful to any analytical points you want to make and risk a flame derail. just stop with the negative characterizations and state facts and analysis.

War causes permanent death and thats what you sign up for in the military.

You could train thousands of immune young people to work in hospitals and let the 60 yr old docs/nurses stay home.

A better candidate pool would be those with delinquent student loans.

Point taken. I'll be more careful.

thanks ... this thread can be really useful but political debates drag it down into the muck. Much obliged.

Whats the timeline on infecting 1000's of soliders then training them? Bout 350 days at best.

I'm a bit bummed about today's number too.

At the same time, it took 3 weeks for Chinese death numbers to plateau after lockdown. Then another 10+ days for them to go down significantly.

Additionally, we won't know the true excess mortality in Italy until later.

Texas cities firing up along with Atlanta indy Miami new Orleans . Big don dgaf going to have his easter steak and ketchup breakfast then go push the kids out of way and claim he found all the eggs. And guess what, they are not just any egggs, they are easter rabbit eggs that can possibly cure rona. He's got a gut feeling .

There was a town in Italy called Vo, where very early in the outbreak local authorities decided to test the whole town, 3000 residents. They had 66 positives (many of whom were asymptomatic), quarantined them until they were negative, and Coronavirus was wiped out from the town.

I haven't been able to find any data what % of the 66 positives were asymptomatic, and remained that way throughout their disease progression. However, hopefully at some point that data comes out, which could help further elucidate how many cases we may be missing by only testing those who are very symptomatic (or very wealthy).

It would also be interesting to do follow-up antibody tests on all these people to see if the asymptomatic cases developed antibodies, as there is a possibility that some people's innate immune system clears the virus so efficiently the adaptive immune system doesn't have time to ramp up and memory antibodies and T cells are not created, which would mean no immunity moving forward.

And it would be interesting to follow persons with antibodies to see if they re-aquired the disease, to see how well antibodies confer protection.

I am not sure we actually know that. That is just stuff we read from sensational news headlines.

It does appear true that the virus, along with secondary pneumonia, can cause serious lung damage. However, I don't think anyone knows how permanent the damage is, especially in young persons with a capacity for tissue regeneration sick, elderly patients (the majority of serious cases) don't have.

Don't forget Detroit. It's right there with New Orleans, and maybe Atlanta, as the next disasters after NYC.

Just catching up on things:

Italy shouldn't peak for another week. It's about 3.5 weeks average to death assuming 100% lockdown which isn't correct, so you should expect at least 4 weeks before a peak. Death comes quicker when they run out of ventilators so that works the other way a bit. 3-4 weeks before peaking from full lockdown.
Don't post or read any forums except 2p2, it's a pretty great place full of lots of very clever people. I don't think have much to add at this point, so you didn't miss much, beyond the effect of actual fiscal stimulus on calming the market (monetary stimulus was dumb/pointless as we said weeks ago).

The virus is doing its exponential thing and the world is a mess. I don't even want to try to guess how many will end up with this, it's too sad.

I don't buy any of the theories being put forth that the real death rate is far lower. Too many data points against that. Many were citing Korea which was 0.6%, now it's 1.5% and climbing. The world is adding a Wuhan (infections and deaths) every single day now.

The math is pretty simple and not sure why I'm repeating it, but 6 day doubling and 24 = 4x6 days from infection to death means that if we are undersampling by 16x - catching just 1 person in 16 who has this, then the real death rate is the current world death rate of 4.5% (and 8 million are currently infected). If you want to claim the real death rate is 0.5%, then ~50 million are currently infected. I don't think we're undersampling as much as 16x. If it's a mere 3 week lag from infection to death when overwhelmed then we'd have to be undersampling 8x (there are 4 million infected right now for the 25K we see dead). It's complicated by the fact that we're choking off spread in the largest clusters/countries now, but if you put it all together I think at least a 2% death rate is pretty solid and 5+ hospital surge death rate, maybe as high as 8%.

There's just no way to look at all the data and come to any view other than a) the death rate is very high and b) not that many are infected yet.

One of the many reasons I don't buy the "heaps infected" theory is that there just hasn't been enough time for many tens of millions infected (which is why the 15 million China dead is comical, there wasn't enough time there for even 100K dead). We have a pretty solid graph now of data points along the whole progression of this across dozens of countries and hundres of regions, and everything is consistent with only a few million at most infected right now, and a high death rate. Nothing has really wavered in the data since the beginning, the opposite effects of sampling bias and exponential lag has just confused a lot of people including experts.

I think the most likely progression over time is that people will remain afraid of this/have to lock down, and eventually be trained/shamed to distance properly and stop virus transmitting behavior sufficiently to get this below 1. That and a huge testing surveillance network should get this under a level of control to enable the economy to half restart. People get better at stuff over time. The US would be Korea if Fauci and others hadn't been incompetent at their job and screwed up the test and hence the testing ramp.

The tropical countries are not as promising as they were, the way spread is happening, BUT to take the broad view, both infections and death summed across tropical countries are nearly two orders of magnitude lower than the rest of the world. Some of that is testing and death attribution bias but it' at least 1.5 orders of magnitude lower. That's an enormous difference, especially since many tropical countries had high early China load, with hundreds of thousands of Chinese migrant workers and sex tourists.

So things probably do get better in warmer weather, if not 100% better. For now things get a lot worse for a good while yet.