The question means to make sure that if the USD drops out and all other currencies increase in relation that Toothersayer cannot say "bitcoin lost value in relation to the other currencies although not the USD. "

So if bitcoin crushes the USD he has no outs to claim he just mean the value of bitcoin in relation to a basket of commodities or currencies.

He gave his prediction in terms of the use dollar, and its doesn't make perfect sense unless you assume the usd is stable in value over time.

So a more accurate prediction would be, in relation to a basket of commodities, or currencies etc.

It's a very on point question and will be seen as such as we understand collectively what I point at here.

Hopefully we can keep the bitcoin legitimacy stuff in the legitimacy thread. Lots of interesting technical and investing stuff to discuss here - forks, news events, new coinbase signups, technical questions, newbie questions, etc. I'd rather they didn't get drowned out.

I'd like to rephrase my question/point then. Do we understand it is different to make a prediction versus the usd than it is against a basket of commodities and/or currencies?

That is quite a relevant point that serves a general audience and shouldn't breed conflict.

Re: new coinbase signups

To get an idea of what's going on, I had a friend sign up recently, bought $80 worth, and is enjoying watching the USD value appreciate. He doesn't really understand it yet. But he's certainly not looking to sell, when I told him it is going to 800k

People are creatures of habit, and it takes a while to get them to accept/wrap their minds around a new monetary system. But he finally took the plunge. Some smarter ones did even earlier. Some, I expect will come around soon.

Now multiply that times a million.

Why would these people sell if it goes down? When they're looking to hold for the long term? Where is all the selling pressure going to come from to push it so low? "Early adopters?" Newsflash, we are the early adopters. Everyone here in this thread is. It is still so early. Anyways, we are the early adopters because we USE coins. I mined some. I sold them because I needed the cash for bills. I've won them, same thing. Most people who got into this were not rich, and it was virtually impossibly to not take profit on the ways up. I doubt more than a handful of people have more than 10,000BTC. If they did, they had it before 1k. If they held the majority through the first time it hit 1k, why would they sell ANY big chunks this time? When they can just sell .01% of their holdings and life comfortably for months.

Literally so much money just got in at *OVER* 1k. Why would these people possibly sell at a loss, after sitting on the sidelines for years potentially waiting, and then entering at this point?

Another example: a sharp businessman I know. Bought several at 2300, even though I had told him about them at 5. His reasoning being that he was too busy focused on buying gold and silver when they were 5, and didn't research enough into them. Now that he took the time to, he's in, for the long haul. These people are out there.

It's literally a mind virus. You hear about it, and if you don't buy right away, you eventually will.

So, welcome to the club.

When you buy something because you believe it is more valuable, and you're proven right, you don't just want to immediately exchange that value for the less valuable thing you traded it in for. That's what you don't understand. The biggest BTC holders aren't going to charge the banks trillions to get their BTC. They simply aren't going to give them up at all. Because they don't want trillions of USD. They want the BTC they hold. That's what you don't get.

And people complain about me calling it a ponzi.

You, a holder of this made-up digital key with no inherent worth, told a friend that the key you're holding is going to give him 100x return if he buys in. He buys in. You sell some to him on the way up:
And you're claiming the effect we're seeing isn't a speculation bubble/ponzi effect?

I enjoyed the anecdote and I see where you're coming from re: people holding (although I don't agree - it's easy to keep holding when it's going up as the ponzi expands), but come on. You just gave me two use cases that are pure speculation bubbles based on a greater fool theory. You're straight up touting getting in on the early levels of the pyramid for big returns as lots of later buyers have yet to come in, in your belief. This is precisely how chain letters/pyramid schemes/pump and dumps work.

It's more like "Who's the greater fool who will give me more Bitcoin for fiat?"

Again, why have the early holders not cashed it all out yet? What price are they waiting for?

It's actually a fact that early coins go on the move every time that price goes parabolic like this. So it's quite clear that there is some profit being taken.

Demand outstrips that supply, every time.

I'm trying to give you an idea of where the demand is coming from, but you still don't understand.

It's not a greater fool theory. These people don't hope to exchange their BTC for USD someday to a "fool". They hope to exchange their BTC for goods and services someday, when it is the primary monetary system. They are definitely speculating, but it is on a global economy shift, not a ponzi scheme. They are true believers. You, too, will drink the kool-aid someday, so don't laugh.

Could you sell little fractions of Madoff stock to random people for cash? Were there ATMs in Las Vegas where you could buy or sell Madoff stock? Was Madoff stock accepted at online retailers?

Do you think every other country in the world besides the US prefers having the USD as reserve currency? Does it benefit them?

You're out of your element here.

"This time it's different."

That is normal for a pyramid scheme/chain letter/pump and dump/tulips. Obviously. Parabolic moves on crap wouldn't be possible otherwise.
Actually, I think it's pretty clear where demand is coming from. You laid it out above:
This isn't a true believer, this is an early pyramid entrant convincing a clueless later pyramid entrant that he's gonna get rich ("100x his money'") if he buys in. You've described exactly what I'm saying this is. Exactly.
Clearly
Of course they do, and of course it benefits them. Drawing rights on the output of the most stable, reliable, productive, transparent and law-bound economy on Earth, that comprises a full quarter of global output, kicks the **** out of owning a fairy coin of uncertain value with no legal drawing rights on anything at all, whose security apparatus is 60% owned by China. This isn't even a hard question.

I'm not saying there isn't risk. There is definitely risk. But I am long. Period. I am putting my money where my mouth is, what little I have left.

I believe that current market price is a reflection of its % chance of reaching true reserve currency status, or at least replacing offshore banking, which would be 500k-1mill.

I believe that % chance is way off, so I am allin. But nothing is a guarantee. Nothing is 100%. GL if you play.

LOL, why would you be concerned about China having 60% hashpower? Are you worried they are going to double spend you? That's literally the only thing they could do, and make all their coins worthless, as people would notice. Or, they could just mine with that hashpower and print BTC. Wonder what they're doing.

In fact, China made Bitmain a National Champion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_champions

Why is Russia getting into mining and making a Crypto-Ruble?

Why did Ukraine just pass a law exempting all taxes on crypto profits?

Lawmakers love crypto.

Are you just thinking people always want to follow the law 100% and the few who don't are criminals?

Why is the tax rate revenue steady at a certain number, despite the fact that it has been moved up and down? The amount of money taken in stays steady, because if the rate is raised, more people are incentivized to avoid.

Incentives are everything. People are always going to be greedy. Bitcoin is all incentives.

Russia lowered their income tax rate to 5% and saw virtually no avoidance.

People are always going to want to hide money.

I have to ask. Exactly WHAT kind of scam is it, if not a ponzi, when they dick up my order at the Mickey-D drive tru? Like who wants to check it before driving away anyway?! McPonzi w/fries imo! SMH


forumserver.twoplustwo.com/30/business-finance-investing/legitimacy-future-crypto-1694739/

Bait & switch, obv.

what use does the us dollar have? it used to be back by gold. what value does gold have? northing it looks pretty.

what value does bitcoin have? nobody tells you how much its worth per coin, because that price is negotiated every second. that is whats great about it. its very transparent and you can have much more faith in it vs. centralized money.

Venezuela citizens witnessed thier money bubble pop because its not stable. Bitcoin is actually more stable because its transparent. people have more faith in it than other things.

If you had 1 billion dollars, would you rather....

Put it into a bank account in a randowm country and load up a stock broker to trade.

Then invest that money into a stock....

think of how many fees and how hard it would be to buy 1 billion worth of stock. You are depending on too many factors to fail.

The random country and random bank you got during this example is risky. It could hyper inflate during this scenerio.
The bank could run off with your money.
The stock exchange web site could run off, get hacked.
high fees and long times.
Then you have to withdraw it.

Or you could load up your Bitcoin. Bitcoins price is dictated in real time, there is no scary sudden collapse or inflation.

Bitcoin is more rare than GOLD There is a limited supply of BTC. What if in the future 30 years from now....... Matthew Mcc. found a giant giant GIANT gold cache in Indo?

This would make golds price go down because the total avail supply would shoot up.

Bitcoin doesnt have these suprises, its extremley volatile yes, but its here for good, you cant copy or clone its gold.

Saying gold only looks pretty is stupid, gold is a good commodities for appliances but its too expensive so companies use cheaper commodities. There are a lot of use for gold but why use something that is extremely expensive. I am long for crypto though i think they will keep. going up especially the way they keep printing fiat. All real assets will keep going up with more paper money being printed

The problem is we let Toothsayers define the 2nd thread as "is crypto legit". It should have been something like "actual security concerns and how to use bitcoin technical thread" and then "rant thread"...

Thats a proper division of subjects that would bring moderator-able division. A division an impartial mod could clearly distinguish.

I'm also going to suggest crypto needs its own header and immediate mods (obviously I'm not eligible and would refuse it but preferably crypto active posters and NOT bitcoin/crypto naysayers).

Noose,

I'll leave this thread for good if you will (and no new accounts, since you just joined last month)

This thread is highly entertaining, I have to admit.

I would never calling for your opinion to be moderated away, just cause we are at different ends. But a better division would foster two threads that are equally valuable.

It's nothing personal, merely an offer. I'll leave this thread for good if you will. Offer's open.

its funny to watch billionaires make more money with bitcoin. i mean 80%+ of the bitcoins on this planet are is owned by a very very small % of people. its funny but sad, no different from how our wealth distribution is now. people think its different cuz bitcoins r cool but in actuality its not.

It is accepted by the US government as payment for taxes.

And the most stable and reliable Fiat in the world.

BTC is right now competing with the USD as much as Galfonds poker site with pokerstars. Future can change ofc, but don't be silly, guys!

It's a well accepted opinion that what you write is garbage. The experts on the topic all agree that he should stay. It's evident and clearly explained in the literature.

I got in bitcoin early and up up over 6 digits, should have made way more but I wasn't flush back then


I enjoy the discussion, it's definitely something somewhere in between revolutionary and ponzi

I lean revolutionary, but I definitely think it's way too early to tell


Best case is it becomes the global hedge money

Assuming that both are possible, which do you all think would happen first:

BTC to 100k or ETH to 5k?