Institutional money does not always have long time horizons. If the market heads south I believe it could go down fast. Then we can get in at cheaper prices.

I feel so much fomo from Ether gains ugh. At least my crypto kitties might appreciate I suppose, lol.

I’ve made some cool pie charts on Excel that I will share with you all when I get home. It might be useful for price evaluations, or if not, at least interesting stuff to know.

Tesla sold just to see if there was liquidity lol

How much of their Bitcoins did they sell? You’d think shareholders would be upset with a business gambling with its cash reserves. I have a feeling they won’t be bothered though.

The godson,

They sold 10 percent of their btc holdings.
Less musings more spread sheets and actual numbers.



RedOak seems like a reasonable thoughtful person. Probably pretty fun at parties.

Probably not a good idea to take statements made by Elon Musk at face value...

Well, if you're going to sell 10% of your holdings and within that time period, the pony will dip near 20%. I think that's a great way to keep accumulating.

Regardless. I always approve of big crashes. A fair % of my holdings have dipped 30-50% at some point this year.

I've always just accumulated. If the market decides to take a 50-90% dump tomorrow. I'll do the same.

Some of you may already know the amount of M1 or M2 money already in the world, but the websites I found were either outdated or gave very different results and I was not happy about them being so different from one another. I took the liberty of going to tradingeconomics.com to gather M1 and M2 data on most countries. I Googled "abc to usd" for each currency and moved the cursor over the graph to the last day of each month the data was released. Probably overkill, but it should give a solid estimate of M1 and M2 money supplies.







In my opinion M2 is the most accurate depiction of total currency in the world. We can assign a crypto's future price based on a probability of outcomes.

For Bitcoin we have:
1) Gold Market SoV market share = 30%
2) World Currency = 1%
3) Niche Cult = 54%
4) Black Swan = 15%

1)
As of typing, according to https://8marketcap.com/, gold is worth 11.338T.
According to https://www.gold.org/about-gold/mark...ture-and-flows, gold makes up (27 + 3 +8) = 38% of SoV.
30% this path is the future
11,338,000,000,000 * .38 * .30 = 1,292,532,000,000

A random Investopedia article I read says SoV is only 1/6 of gold supply.
11,338,000,000,000 * (1/6) * .30 = 566,900,000,000

min(1,292,532,000,000, 566,900,000,000) = 566,900,000,000

2)
Unlikely, but possible.
1% this path is the future
106,396,300,929,974.80 * 0.01 = 1,063,963,009,300

3)
38,366,623 Bitcoin addresses according to https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-ri...addresses.html
The mean wealth per adult in the world is $70,849 according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...alth_per_adult
Safe estimate, 1/250 people in Bitcoin are die hard Bitcoiners
54% this path is the future.
38,366,623 * (1/250) * 70,849 * .54 = 5,871,391,645

4)
Bitcoin is abandoned because of black swan. (greater fool, quantum computing, fundamental flaw, solar flare, etc...)

Market cap excluding lost coins:
21,000,000 - (18,500,000 * .20) = 17,300,000


Add 1, 2, and 3 and we get the total value:
566,900,000,000 + 1,063,963,009,300 + 5,871,391,645 = 1,636,734,400,945

Per coin value:
1,636,734,400,945 / 17,300,000 = $94,608.92

It could use some adjustments, but I'm satisfied for now. As a side note, I actually figured out that I wasn't ******ed about S2F after all. I have a really good explanation why I wasn't ******ed, but I don't feel like getting into it right now.

I got a $3 pay cut at work because they decided we were getting too much money and they also drastically cut back on my overtime so I won't be bringing $1700ish home a week anymore. I won't be visiting the forums as frequently as a result. I also want to take a break from Bitcoin stuff and focus on other things.

bubble paradox - the larger it gets, the more convinced those speculating become as they falsely believe it is because it reached mass adoption/acceptance

Bitcoin 1% world currency lol
Start building your bunkers
There are percentages smaller than 1%, btw

Very Satoshi.

I'm all for some cryptocurrency related predictions but the level of precision placed on all those values is so ridiculous. Basically meaningless.

How would you distribute to various future outcomes based on %/$ prices?

seems like a troll question for bell curve memes

2 cases:
1) you are saying ethereum is a ponzi
2) you agree ethereum is not a ponzi

In case (1), we have nothing further to talk about and I don't care about your opinion. In case (2), the analogy is awful and I don't understand why you'd post it, or think it was not awful.

hehe thank you!

1) I like to think we learned our lesson when we tried to ban gold
2) Why would Russia or China ban bitcoin if it was undermining the USD? It is more likely China would start aggressively selling USTs to buy BTC. This geopolitical situation is the best assurance that BTC *will not* be banned by the USA (and other major govts). It's just terrible situation game-theoretically to allow other jurisdictions to both embrace financial / monetary innovation while simultaneously crippling the USA via dumping bonds. There's still a nonzero chance something like this happens, but IMO it's quite low.

Just to make it clear once more: I was not asking the question myself. The original question is shown below. I was being sarcastic and asking the OP to clarify if that is what he meant, because it didn't make a lot of sense to me and seemed rather poorly thought out.

I see now the problem. It isn't your math that is wrong -- it's your mental model. The presence of net sellers in the market doesn't imply the value collapses to 0 if net selling > net buying. It simply highlights the fact that "market caps" are illusory-- i.e, not every share of AMZN could be sold at/near the market price, but the market price over time represents the market-clearing balance of buyers and sellers. This is true in stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, etc. This is to say that if net outflows overwhelm net inflows, the price (and market cap) would drop to a new market-clearing level, not to 0.

Maybe, just maybe, people genuinely want to own coins for the value they see in them, and not the fiat dollars they can be traded for.

If you don't agree that is fine, but that is clearly the root of the disagreements you have with most of the people ITT. And since that is your gripe, it is really hard to understand why you don't just simply ignore crypto and don't post here.

ill take a bite.

it is true about china and Russia motivation in the short term but what happen AFTER once the US lose the reserve currency because of bitcoin?

Totalitarian state like China and Russia will suffer incredible pressure internally to prevent bitcoin attacking their own national interest thereafter from their own citizens and worldwide.

And what will be the backlash from the US after.
Using bitcoin as a monetary weapon in the future maybe ?

Let me clarify then. What's to stop the governments of the world from banning and confiscating it in order to control Bitcoin and in effect blocking it from being able to be the global currency. World governments clearly don't want a currency 100% influenced by supply and demand and won't easily relinquish control.

they would own so much bitcoin/eth/whatever that it couldn't possibly threaten their CBDC. it would likely interoperate with it.

secondly, it's only a subset of bitcoiners who think hyperinflation / death of dollar crap anyway. there are many cases where the dollar stays around without becoming toilet paper and cryptocurrency is still much more valuable than today. many bears operate on this false premise that btc success = dollar hegemony gone, that it's some sort of either-or thing.

I do not understand.
how they could own so much bitcoin if it is capped ?
Why would they ever want something they cant control over a monetary sytem they can control ?

We might see eventually a poor democratic country ,to adopt something like bitcoin because of the wishes of the voters, but not in totalitarian states.
And even then, many countries have suffers tremendously by adopting a foreign currency as their national currency like the US $ or the Euro (greece), not being able to adapt their monetary system to fit their economic problems.

imho, some think about bitcoin too much as individual, falsely trying to extrapolate it to sovereign nation functions.

The world governments are not in cooperation with each other. Everybody want to take the reserve currency power from the US. Many nations can't participate properly in the world economy because of the US's control over the major settlement networks.

You want to think about the world when all the governments are able to cooperate together? It would be amazing.

Its game theoretically impossible atm.

by buying it and mining it with the massive amount of financial assets they have, including but not limited to tons of USTs?

Hey Two shae could I get a chance to hear your opinion on Sovryn?

Wrong thread.

RE bans: Hold a little monero and sleep peacefully