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Originally Posted by CoolTimer
0%.
This isn't a rational response. We are talking about human beings, it is never 0%. Given that Gavin Andresen and the head of the bitcoin foundation were both sure he was Satoshi and witnessed private key signings, was satisified with the answers to questions about private correspondence, etc, 0% is not a sane answer.
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And even if he is it doesn't matter. The Schelling point has been decided on.
How does one determine such a thing? This sounds like bull**** to me. Is it 100% that bitcoin is the eternal Schelling point for global money/blockchain? Or less than that? These absolute answers you give are not sane answers.
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Let's assume he is Satoshi, I wouldn't GAF personally. And Bitcoin with all it's network effects (liquidity, developers, security) would crush BSV on every single aspect you'd like to see in a global money.
Well, this is a false statement. BSV crushes in scalability and flexibility for one, which is actually an incredibly important part of a global currency and eventually a global single blockchain.
Let's go back to 2009, an look at your statement applied then:
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Global fiat currency transfer with all its network effects (liquidity, developers, security, stability, adoption) would crush bitcoin in every single aspect end-to-end in 2009
Money crushed bitcoin in 2009 - therefore bitcoin will never take off? That is your logic on BSV or as-yet-unknown alternatives?
Repeat for Ethereum and Ripple which both came way later and had massive returns which crushed bitcoin over the same time scale.
Your argument seems weak.
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The reason Bitcoin is the price and liquidity leader by a wide margin is because it has a social consus based on all kinds of individual reasons.
You could have said the same about myspace or fiat.
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You crave a leader so much that you think everybody would switch if they find out Satoshi isn't who they thought he was.
No, there are heaps of self interested parties in bitcoin who want the status quo, I agree. But if it runs into scaling problems again (and it will), then what?
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I think Bitcoin doesn't even bat an eye if this would be proven. So your bet is pretty dumb, as it assumes an unrealistic upside when he turns out to be Satoshi.
Bitcoin SV ripped 60% or $1 billion on news of a patent filing from Craig Wright that most in the community instantly dismiss like you do (since it's an irrational 0% chance to you). How much would it rip if he was actually Satoshi? How many miners would switch for the free money as it rips? How much broad press coverage would the original Satoshi get as he explains his vision of why bitcoin is doomed and bitcoin SV is the future?
You haven't thought this through because your intellectual Peter Principle is being reached at "Schelling point".
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And here I am, being baited into reacting to this nonsense again..
We are examining your extreme irrationality on the probabilities you've given. It is a useful exercise.