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04-22-2008 , 08:33 PM

#326

agencia1

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 864

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephenNUTS

Because USO is not an 'easy' shortable ETF w/o some legwork

GL,
Stephen

lol. dont worry im scared of both although the potential rewards are great.
the technicals are v good on both also. but then again oil is flying out of technical orbit! def due to come down around fed meeting unless we see .50 bps cut.

maybe ill take a little nibble after you guys beat it down a bit.

04-22-2008 , 08:42 PM

#327

Fishhead24

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,899

Having a very solid month........from the pokerroom to the floor of the NYSE.

04-23-2008 , 08:21 AM

#328

stephenNUTS

banned

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 3,290

Quote:

Originally Posted by stephenNUTS

Speaking of the OIL bubble bursting..........started buying the inverse ETF(DCR) at 3.38 today.I will be adding/scaling in over the next few sessions/weeks if ness

GL,
Stephen

FWIW I am long DCR since yesterday but will be implemented a tight trailing stop due to an issue that might affect a max return.It seems these two inverse vehicles(DCR=short oil and UCR= long oil)have reached a trigger liquidation on June 25th due to OIL appoaching $120 a barrel

Read the story:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080417/20080417006264.html?.v=1

GL,
Stephen

04-23-2008 , 08:39 AM

#329

CrushinFelt

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 4,650

Interesting macro-econ story from the WSJ

Quote:

Libor Hits U.S. Borrowers
Proposed New Version
Of Rate Might Help
Cut Americans' Costs
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP and MARK WHITEHOUSE
April 23, 2008; Page C1

The troubles of banks in Europe are pushing up an interest rate widely used in the U.S., prompting the idea of a U.S.-based alternative to that rate, known as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor.

The problem: Payments on trillions of dollars in U.S. corporate and mortgage loans are set according to dollar Libor, but only three of the 16 banks that contribute their borrowing costs to calculate the rate are based in the U.S. That means the financial difficulties of European banks are having an outsized effect on U.S. borrowing costs, and could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring those borrowing costs down.

European banks' "demand for dollar funding is likely to raise dollar Libor and result in higher borrowing costs for everyone from [General Electric Co.] to the average homeowner, even as the Fed is lowering the fed-funds rate further," says Scott Peng, an interest-rate strategist at Citigroup Inc. In a recent report, Mr. Peng proposed the creation of a "NYbor" index, which would track the borrowing costs of U.S. banks only.

A significant gap between borrowing rates reported by European and U.S. banks has opened up since last week, when many banks started raising their reported Libor rates. The banks' moves came as the British Bankers' Association, which oversees Libor, said it was investigating bankers' concerns that their rivals were understating their actual borrowing costs to avoid looking desperate for cash.

John Ewan, who manages the Libor program at the BBA, said Tuesday the association's Foreign Exchange and Money Market committee is reviewing the way Libor is calculated.

On Friday, the gap between three-month dollar Libor and the average three-month borrowing rates for U.S. banks in the 16-bank Libor dollar panel reached 0.04 percentage point, its highest level since the financial crisis began in August. If sustained, that would represent an added $2.8 billion in annual interest costs on some $6.9 trillion in U.S. corporate and subprime-mortgage debt tied to Libor. It has since fallen, but analysts said it ultimately could increase to 0.10 percentage point as European banks' difficulties become fully reflected in their Libor quotes.

Analysts attribute the sharper rise in European banks' borrowing rates to the fact that they're scrambling for dollars to pay off dollar-denominated debts. Pressure is particularly acute in Europe in part because it lacks analogs to such U.S. institutions as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, which provide U.S. banks with access to additional funding.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1208...&apl=y&r=59664

04-23-2008 , 11:29 AM

#330

uppie_

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,673

appears to me that POT is attempting to go on sale today. I have been looking for an entry point it might be coming now.

04-23-2008 , 03:04 PM

#331

bills217

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 7,462

Everybody watch me catch this falling knife!

*buys PNCL at 7.82*

04-23-2008 , 04:43 PM

#332

agencia1

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 864

jumped into a modest position in SMN today @31.6
but im not sticking around for long.
just hoping to catch the short breather in commodities
around fed meeting if it happens.

04-23-2008 , 06:56 PM

#333

Shoe

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 11,869

Can't wait for the NTDOY earnings report!

04-24-2008 , 12:19 AM

#334

BDaws

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 1,930

Quote:

Originally Posted by BDaws

I identified WebMD (WBMD) as a potential short using a stock screener recently and it's up 17% since then. Some of you more knowledgeable guys might want to look into it .

Its valuations aren't absurd (PE: 24), but I have heard from someone working in M&A in new media and information technology that this business model is unproven and doesn't think it will ever be very profitable.

Hopefully someone took a look into WebMD and made some money. It fell 12% today after lowering profit and revenue guidance for 2008. The lower guidance was to reflect a shift to shorter-term buying commitments in some of its customers' consumer advertising purchases.

Question: Would the fact that Google crushed it's 1Q expectations cause people to stay away from this trade?

04-24-2008 , 08:44 AM

#335

CrushinFelt

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 4,650

Someone on here has to know how to help me hook up my Ipod to my new computer without it trying to resync and clear all of my data.

please please please?

04-24-2008 , 08:44 AM

#336

CrushinFelt

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 4,650

Quote:

Originally Posted by BDaws

If WebMD jumped up on the google news then I would be more inclined to make the trade.

04-24-2008 , 09:32 AM

#337

uppie_

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,673

Everyone on TV seem to be talking about how lower commodity prices are going to start the next leg up.

I do think one key point keeps getting missed in there theroy. There theroy being this basically strong dollar = lowers commodity prices = next leg up.

While if you listen to every major earnings call this quarter the CEO are saying strong numbers from international sales.

Therefore without the weak dollar profits would be getting destroyed this quarter as international sales would not be nearly as strong. So it seems fairly simple to me that if we see a stronger dollar we will see corp. profits falling in that period missing estimates.

Unless that is the US consumer comes back which isn't likely to happen until housing and the credit crunch get resolved

04-24-2008 , 09:38 AM

#338

Jimbo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 8,940

Quote:

Originally Posted by uppie_

The weak/strong dollar doesn't effect sales of companies with international outlets but does effect the profits derived from currency conversion. These same companies also have US sales which if the dollar strengthens indicating a stronger economy the US profits rise hopefully offsetting the lower currency conversion profits.

Jimbo

04-24-2008 , 10:22 AM

#339

CrushinFelt

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 4,650

Wheat has already backed of to $8 from $12 at the beginning of March.

04-24-2008 , 10:24 AM

#340

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoe

Can't wait for the NTDOY earnings report!

lol

04-24-2008 , 10:25 AM

#341

Jimbo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 8,940

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yowserrrs

lol

I was thinking just what you wrote, gotta give him credit for being consistent though.

Jimbo

04-24-2008 , 10:39 AM

#342

CrushinFelt

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 4,650

'm guesing they'll be similar to Apple's.

04-24-2008 , 10:41 AM

#343

agencia1

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 864

anyone shorting oil here? technicals look v good here.
yeh i know its oil but im prob going to take a small position if i can find a better price later day.

took some profit w SMN this morn at 33.5.
POT having a pretty big sell-off right now.

04-24-2008 , 10:42 AM

#344

Yowserrrs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 5,347

Quote:

Originally Posted by agencia1

I shorted 200 POT @ 209.75 but covered at 198.5. I think it bounces back but I wouldnt get long above $185.

04-24-2008 , 10:56 AM

#345

agencia1

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 864

yeh. i had 35 as my target for SMN but i was afraid of the agri commodities monster coming back to life. what do you think of commodities post correction?

04-24-2008 , 11:43 AM

#346

agencia1

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 864

eek. what a weird rally. my SKF got stopped out @ 104.5. yuk

04-24-2008 , 11:46 AM

#347

Fishhead24

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,899

Currently more staked in the market than any time in the year.......IM SWEATING(sort of). I love the action ......and the small profits that I grind.

How is my credit here.....can I get a loan from somebody?