No. Abercrombie & Fitch is not easy to replicate. Victoria's Secret is not easy to replicate. And on and on.

I think Victoria's Secret is private, but how much do you have invested in ANF? I agree ANF was a good investment a few years ago, I don't think they are now. They were (IMO) a product of a great marketing campaign. I don't think their clothes are any better than anything else out there, they just were able to brain-wash teens into thinking they need ANF, which is great for getting rich quick, but I don't see the long-term value with them. Please correct me if I am missing something.

If Victoria's Secret was a public company, I think they would be a decent investment, but definitely would not provide eye-popping returns (although their products might), mainly because they are already a pretty big company and have a store in pretty much every mall. I'm just not confident in their growth opportunities (but love their product).

I don't have anything invested in ANF, I just named the first two retailers that came to mind that have brand value (or "brain-washing" as you call it).

Coke has been "brain-washing" people into paying a hefty premium for Coke for quite a while now, even when >90% of ppl cannot tell the difference between Coke and a generic. Whether or not you or I think it is justified doesn't matter - it exists either way. (I am not implying the ANF brand specifically is as strong as Coke, but it has persisted too long to be classified a fad imo.)

And of course you ignore valuation the whole way through, like you always do, probably because you are completely ignorant of how to value a company. I'd prolly buy all the GME I could get my grubby little paws on at, say, 8x cash flow.

Shoe,

Incidentally - are there any investments you like that aren't related to this bull run (that everyone and their brother is now aware of thanks to the 10,000 articles that get written about it every day) in the video game industry? That is, besides shorting Bear Stearns at $3?

You talk about moats, competition, and driving down profit margin, then reference a company like ANF as a good example that just needs to import clothes from a sweatshop and mark it up like 300%. Sounds like they are in for some tough times if you compare them to your GME assessment.

I have been an advocate of this so-called bull-run way before it was even considered a bull-run. Go ahead and continue to deny it if you want to (like Goldman Sachs did today), but video games are here to stay and they are the entertainment of the future. The video game industry is going to continue to grow much faster than the rest of the economy for the next several years.

And also, I never said to actually short Bear Sterans at $3, but thank you for resorting to that whenever you are getting your behind handed to you in a debate with me. In the whole debacle that went down with BSC, I did state on multiple occasions that I thought their shares were worthless and could not believe they were trading above $2 after the initial bailout. And there were several analysts who thought the same who you would gladly quote when they happen to support your position. Yes I called that one wrong, but I was only stating my opinon in a highly irregular and irrational environment (that I learned some good lessons from). I was not advocating or making trades like you want to make it seem. If you don't recall, everyone had something to say about BSC that day, but not many were actually trading on it.

The glaringly obvious distinction would be that a company like ANF (or Coke, etc.) has brand value (and thus pricing power, etc.) whereas GME does not (which you have previously admitted). Since that was the entire point of the last few posts with regard to this discussion, I did not think it needed to be spelled out for you. My apologies.

I haven't denied it, nor did the Goldman Sachs analyst today. That you think so highlights your ignorance.

Yes - everyone on Planet Earth knows this. Even the idiots at Goldman Sachs. Solar energy is growing way faster than video games and yet I am short it too. I must be crazy!!!!!!!111!!!!111

And I didn't say that you did. Why so defensive?



Also, you did not answer the original question:

Shoe,

FWIW I think you have no clue what you're doing and you're gonna implode your retirement and the pittance you've managed to save. You seem to be out of touch with basics of business. First mover advantages, barriers to entry, etc etc etc.

If you honestly think ANF's strategy is so simple, you'd be far better off stopping this pathetic excuse for investing and finding some ******ed backers and importing clothes and marking them up 300%. If you're just making a dumb straw man to argue against, please stop. Its annoying me and wasting my time.

Blah blah blah... you don't have to read my posts... blah blah blah... I don't care... blah blah blah... stop being dumb.

This is pretty hilarious. Victoria's Secret is a division of Limited Brands (LTD). Victoria's Secret has 1100 stores to GameStop's 5000. LTD (the entire company, not just Victoria's Secret) is about 70% of the size of GME. LTD also happens to be trading at 9x earnings to GameStop's 30x earnings. LTD insiders have bought a ton of stock in the past 6 months while GME insiders cannot get rid of theirs fast enough. This entire discussion is making me want to go long LTD...lol

if your going to short retail isn't Home Depot HD the most obvious and probably the best play on current state of the economy?

shoe,

bills is making some pretty good points, id listen up

Most obvious? Probably
Best choice? I don't think so unless you have a very tight stop, they will recover (in fact have recovered pretty well so far) before the homebuilder sales show up in the numbers.

If you want to short a similar stock I would choose Lowes myself.

Jimbo

HD and LOW are staying afloat because builders are literally flooding the market in desperation. Once this slows and some go bankrupt then HD and LOW will take the full hit.

So you consider them equally bad?

Jimbo

Again this discussion is pretty pointless outside of academic purposes. The market clearly believes that the business is not easily replicated otherwise it wouldnt give GME the multiple it has. If you disagree, you can short it here on that alone but you better have a long term horizon in mind.

In the short term, this stock will perform based on store openings and same store and industry comps, like any other retailer.

I saw a report that video game demand hasnt faded at all in past 3 months which worries me greatly. That report and a bs 4% hit yesterday made me cover 1/2 my position.

I dont know Shoe but I would bet a lot of money that if I asked him five simple questions based on stuff I learned in the first 10 minutes of analyzing the stock, he wouldnt be able to answer more than 1 of 5. That effectively means you are battling someone whose bullish thesis is singularly comprised of his and his friends love of video games.

HD vs LOW - I dont know them well enough
HD or LOW vs builders - I would rather be short the builders because leverage is my friend.

Yow-

Sorry to change subjects, but UNH reported and missed bigtime. I sold going into earnings (verified by another person on this site.) Anyway, I remember you talking about being a holder of this..does it start to look super attractive to you if it falls to the 30 dollar range, even with their miss and new estimates? thats a ridiculous fall in a few short months, without the rebound that HUM and others had. For now I will wait, but 30 may be too attractive if it gets there

"literally flooding the market in desperation."

QTF

I just read USGs quarterly and their average selling price per sq foot was 102$ compared to 160 a year ago.

not gonna short it, but there are probably 1000 companies id be more interested in owning than GME

Lay off UNH for now...Buy some WLP.

Have they reported yet for the quarter?

i have an interesting scenario:

if i put money into savings, i will now have to pay 40% tax on it, due to this takes me over the high rate band threshold.

if i put money into index/mutual funds, i will not have to pay any tax as i doubt i will max out my £9k capital gains tax allowance.

if i want to a low risk approach to this money, wouldnt i be wiser to say put it in a cautious managed low fee fund than put it in savings or bond?

Well first, people were looking to short retail and thats why i suggested HD. Low equally as bad, I just thought for some reason LOW was better the HD don't remember why.

Second why not short all of it. HD LOW KB homes Pulte Bezer and any of your other favorites.. Housing problems are so far from over.

UNH did report it was not good

Uppie, I mentioned UNH, but said i sold into earnings, I was asking about Wellpoint, not UNH.

D

WLP reports tomorrow cc is at 8:30 EDT