What's a natural recession? Was this one seeded by ghosts?

The US consumer is good at borrowing a lot of money to damage their mental and physical health while exploiting poor conditions abroad. That's not a strong economy.

You don't think there will be another stimulus and probably another after that? Excessive fiscal/monetary stimulus isn't ending anytime soon.

How am I a doom and gloomer for stating what is obvious?

What you're betting on is the fed/politicians won't let the market fail, whether you know it or not. Is that a good bet? We'll see but what I said in that post is obviously correct.

Lol @ thinking this economy doesn't need constant injections to keep it afloat.

S&P prices
August 1 1969 (Woodstock and Vietnam): 94.18
Today: 2,929.80

Without dividends.

What’s your point again?

Now you're just being argumentative. It's well understood by now (see S&P) that this is a temporary disruption to the economy. There's no hard data, but I'm sure many workers are furloughed and many can be brought back to work within short notice as states reopen, unlike every other recession where unemployment is more permanent (layoffs) and workers spend months/quarters looking for a new job. In the meantime, the government has supplemented lost income via stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. If you have a crystal ball that shows a second-wave will necessitate further lock-downs, please share your view.

I don't agree/disagree, but can you elaborate. Hypothetically, if options yield $x or x% on average, then you can derive a distribution of the underlying.

FYI, S&P includes dividends.

Oops. Started posting spy first.

In order to determine the ev of an option, you’d need to know the drift of the underlying, which of course no one knows.

The revelation of bsm (and what won them a Nobel prize) was that while you can’t know the ev of an option, you can replicate an option payoff using only stock, and then the ev of a long option and short the replicating portfolio has to equal zero (ignoring funding).

That means that the price of an option can not be compared with the ev of just holding the option naked. Similarly the common heuristic of delta = probability of itm is incorrect.

That’s all probably a good thing for everyone itt, since I’m guessing most people are holding options without offsetting stock, it’s possible to be +ev without needing to ‘beat’ the pros. Although still not easy

In the end an economy is just a summary of human interactions.
When people use words like 'disruption', it suggests there is some natural law that dictates what an economy should be like. I am not aware of such natural laws.

This is not how any of this works. 'The economy' is not a device that you turn on, off or just pause.
V-shaped recovery believers still haven't grasped this.

Actually, we did just pause the economy. If the virus was contained and went away in short time we could turn the economy back on and it would be a V-shaped recovery. However, it's clear that isn't going to happen as the virus is going to stick around for a long time and no one is going to be returning to normal anytime soon. The market still has a V-shaped recovery priced in, which obviously isn't going to happen, so I'm expecting a crash again soon but for the time being the market keeps going back up.

The stock market does not equal the economy. You can have a struggling economy and still have a V shaped stock market. We still aren't sure how much the economy will snap back or even when or how much "permanent" damage has been done with a temporary shutdown. But we do know that the fed threw the kitchen sink at this thing and likely won't take it's foot off the gas until the economies woes are healing and the stock market generally likes that.

Again, wrong analogy. Human interactions at this scale and variety don't work that way.

https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...875125251?s=21


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You're going to have to be more specific than "it don't work that way".

And how are we defining a V-shaped recovery? All jobs back at once? I'm not advocating that. But we don't need to get all of the jobs back to see the S&P rally to ATH. See:

This isn't bullish. Zoom is the new starbucks experience .

Also the line at home depot was like 200 deep. Numbers going to be pathetic, better off staying closed and the employees make more on unemployment. Wouldn't shock me if the strategy was cause as much havoc on the local municipality with long lines and complaining people just say **** it open up.

Futures Open:

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures

Are you a bot? Lol. I’m not mad just noticed you do this at like 6 on the dot every week


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No...

You Happy?

Haha I wasn’t trying to be confrontational.

These guys just seem to clearly know when and where to find futures data so I always found it weird you posted that at open every week.

Moreso because I don’t see you post much in this thread (I could be way wrong) and it would make more sense if you were actively participating about futures impacts.


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Anyone have info on TSG or Flutter ? Is TSG delisted after merger?

More evidence the prior economy is not worth returning to in the first place.
How empty is your life to do that, even for exceptional coffee (not SB case).

”Can stocks and bonds both be right?” Making sense of rising equities and ultra low treasury yields

This is probably a sell signal actually (hopefully near term). He is a little skeptical how far current the rally will go at least. Santoli has been writing about the markets for a long time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/penn-...105200998.html

This should be great for me yet the company is only down 1% today???

Makes no sense, diluting the company and the stock doesn’t go down.


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**** tanker stocks

But I'm going down with the ship

5/13 293c @ 1.25