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2020 Stock Trading Thread 2020 Stock Trading Thread

05-09-2020 , 04:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
FYP. This is why it made no sense in March when Trump first blurted it out. But it's different story now, now that we're in recovery mode and elections are on the horizon. May and June's NFP will be telling. I don't have an exact number, but I would guess many (not all) of these people are furloughed and can jump back into work at a week's notice. Contrast this with a natural recession where unemployment is more permanent. And as for the 85% that are employed, this is great news.
What's a natural recession? Was this one seeded by ghosts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
We’ll just mark you down as yet another doom and gloomer. I’ve been involved in trading stocks for a long time. I have heard and read the same crap for decades about how the economy is at the precipice of disaster. There’s a popular meme that the stock market has predicted 12 of the last 2 recessions. Yes we’re in a pandemic induced recession now. I’m betting the strength of the USA consumer is vastly underrated again and we’ll have a decent recovery. The odds are in my favor.
The US consumer is good at borrowing a lot of money to damage their mental and physical health while exploiting poor conditions abroad. That's not a strong economy.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-09-2020 , 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
We’ll just mark you down as yet another doom and gloomer. I’ve been involved in trading stocks for a long time. I have heard and read the same crap for decades about how the economy is at the precipice of disaster. There’s a popular meme that the stock market has predicted 12 of the last 2 recessions. Yes we’re in a pandemic induced recession now. I’m betting the strength of the USA consumer is vastly underrated again and we’ll have a decent recovery. The odds are in my favor.
You don't think there will be another stimulus and probably another after that? Excessive fiscal/monetary stimulus isn't ending anytime soon.

How am I a doom and gloomer for stating what is obvious?

What you're betting on is the fed/politicians won't let the market fail, whether you know it or not. Is that a good bet? We'll see but what I said in that post is obviously correct.

Lol @ thinking this economy doesn't need constant injections to keep it afloat.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-09-2020 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry



The US consumer is good at borrowing a lot of money to damage their mental and physical health while exploiting poor conditions abroad. That's not a strong economy.
S&P prices
August 1 1969 (Woodstock and Vietnam): 94.18
Today: 2,929.80

Without dividends.

What’s your point again?
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-09-2020 , 08:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
What's a natural recession? Was this one seeded by ghosts?
Now you're just being argumentative. It's well understood by now (see S&P) that this is a temporary disruption to the economy. There's no hard data, but I'm sure many workers are furloughed and many can be brought back to work within short notice as states reopen, unlike every other recession where unemployment is more permanent (layoffs) and workers spend months/quarters looking for a new job. In the meantime, the government has supplemented lost income via stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. If you have a crystal ball that shows a second-wave will necessitate further lock-downs, please share your view.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-09-2020 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibavly
Options aren’t priced on the ev of the option. The simple explanation for this is that you would need to know the ev and distribution of the underlying.
I don't agree/disagree, but can you elaborate. Hypothetically, if options yield $x or x% on average, then you can derive a distribution of the underlying.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-09-2020 , 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethrill009
S&P prices
August 1 1969 (Woodstock and Vietnam): 94.18
Today: 2,929.80

Without dividends.
FYI, S&P includes dividends.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-09-2020 , 10:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
FYI, S&P includes dividends.

Oops. Started posting spy first.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 12:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
I don't agree/disagree, but can you elaborate. Hypothetically, if options yield $x or x% on average, then you can derive a distribution of the underlying.

In order to determine the ev of an option, you’d need to know the drift of the underlying, which of course no one knows.

The revelation of bsm (and what won them a Nobel prize) was that while you can’t know the ev of an option, you can replicate an option payoff using only stock, and then the ev of a long option and short the replicating portfolio has to equal zero (ignoring funding).

That means that the price of an option can not be compared with the ev of just holding the option naked. Similarly the common heuristic of delta = probability of itm is incorrect.

That’s all probably a good thing for everyone itt, since I’m guessing most people are holding options without offsetting stock, it’s possible to be +ev without needing to ‘beat’ the pros. Although still not easy
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 04:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Now you're just being argumentative. It's well understood by now (see S&P) that this is a temporary disruption to the economy.
In the end an economy is just a summary of human interactions.
When people use words like 'disruption', it suggests there is some natural law that dictates what an economy should be like. I am not aware of such natural laws.

Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
There's no hard data, but I'm sure many workers are furloughed and many can be brought back to work within short notice as states reopen, unlike every other recession where unemployment is more permanent (layoffs) and workers spend months/quarters looking for a new job. In the meantime, the government has supplemented lost income via stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. If you have a crystal ball that shows a second-wave will necessitate further lock-downs, please share your view.
This is not how any of this works. 'The economy' is not a device that you turn on, off or just pause.
V-shaped recovery believers still haven't grasped this.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 04:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
This is not how any of this works. 'The economy' is not a device that you turn on, off or just pause.
V-shaped recovery believers still haven't grasped this.
Actually, we did just pause the economy. If the virus was contained and went away in short time we could turn the economy back on and it would be a V-shaped recovery. However, it's clear that isn't going to happen as the virus is going to stick around for a long time and no one is going to be returning to normal anytime soon. The market still has a V-shaped recovery priced in, which obviously isn't going to happen, so I'm expecting a crash again soon but for the time being the market keeps going back up.

Last edited by Shoe; 05-10-2020 at 04:56 AM.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 06:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoe
Actually, we did just pause the economy. If the virus was contained and went away in short time we could turn the economy back on and it would be a V-shaped recovery. However, it's clear that isn't going to happen as the virus is going to stick around for a long time and no one is going to be returning to normal anytime soon. The market still has a V-shaped recovery priced in, which obviously isn't going to happen, so I'm expecting a crash again soon but for the time being the market keeps going back up.
The stock market does not equal the economy. You can have a struggling economy and still have a V shaped stock market. We still aren't sure how much the economy will snap back or even when or how much "permanent" damage has been done with a temporary shutdown. But we do know that the fed threw the kitchen sink at this thing and likely won't take it's foot off the gas until the economies woes are healing and the stock market generally likes that.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 07:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoe
Actually, we did just pause the economy. If the virus was contained and went away in short time we could turn the economy back on and it would be a V-shaped recovery.
Again, wrong analogy. Human interactions at this scale and variety don't work that way.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
Again, wrong analogy. Human interactions at this scale and variety don't work that way.
You're going to have to be more specific than "it don't work that way".

And how are we defining a V-shaped recovery? All jobs back at once? I'm not advocating that. But we don't need to get all of the jobs back to see the S&P rally to ATH. See:

Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Historically, the S&P bottoms far before unemployment peaks. The only exception from this list is 1962. The data goes back to 1948.

2009: The S&P bottomed in March 2009 (most sectors retested lows it made in earlier months), but unemployment didn't peak until Nov 2009.

2002: S&P July-Oct 2002, unemployment July 2003.

1990: No significant selloff in the S&P

1982: S&P Aug, unemployment Nov.

1974: S&P Sept, unemployment May 1975.

1970: S&P May, unemployment Dec

1962: S&P June, unemployment July 1961.

1957: S&P Oct, unemployment July 1958

1953: No significant selloff in the S&P

1949: S&P June, unemployment Oct

Source: https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 04:05 PM
This isn't bullish. Zoom is the new starbucks experience .

Also the line at home depot was like 200 deep. Numbers going to be pathetic, better off staying closed and the employees make more on unemployment. Wouldn't shock me if the strategy was cause as much havoc on the local municipality with long lines and complaining people just say **** it open up.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBabyBoy


Are you a bot? Lol. I’m not mad just noticed you do this at like 6 on the dot every week


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2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 06:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheNonPareil
Are you a bot? Lol. I’m not mad just noticed you do this at like 6 on the dot every week


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No...

You Happy?
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBabyBoy
No...



You Happy?


Haha I wasn’t trying to be confrontational.

These guys just seem to clearly know when and where to find futures data so I always found it weird you posted that at open every week.

Moreso because I don’t see you post much in this thread (I could be way wrong) and it would make more sense if you were actively participating about futures impacts.


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2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-10-2020 , 09:43 PM
Anyone have info on TSG or Flutter ? Is TSG delisted after merger?
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-11-2020 , 05:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RuthSlayer
This isn't bullish. Zoom is the new starbucks experience .

Also the line at home depot was like 200 deep. Numbers going to be pathetic, better off staying closed and the employees make more on unemployment. Wouldn't shock me if the strategy was cause as much havoc on the local municipality with long lines and complaining people just say **** it open up.
More evidence the prior economy is not worth returning to in the first place.
How empty is your life to do that, even for exceptional coffee (not SB case).
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-11-2020 , 08:17 AM
”Can stocks and bonds both be right?” Making sense of rising equities and ultra low treasury yields

This is probably a sell signal actually (hopefully near term). He is a little skeptical how far current the rally will go at least. Santoli has been writing about the markets for a long time.
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-11-2020 , 10:38 AM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/penn-...105200998.html

This should be great for me yet the company is only down 1% today???

Makes no sense, diluting the company and the stock doesn’t go down.


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2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-11-2020 , 10:44 AM
**** tanker stocks

But I'm going down with the ship
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote
05-11-2020 , 11:29 AM
5/13 293c @ 1.25
2020 Stock Trading Thread Quote

      
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