2020 Stock Trading Thread - Page 180 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

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04-28-2020 , 11:30 AM

#4476

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by chytry

^^ VIX says volatility is still very high

I realize VIX is still high. The quoted tweet in the tweet above is from Jan. 20th I believe. I'm referencing people's mistaken belief that central banks can bailout any and all market issues. The fed can't end/stop market cycles it only exacerbates them by trying to stand on the market instead of just letting prices/ businesses adjust accordingly.

It seems like people's faith is misguided again, only a short few months later. I could be wrong, but I don't see how fed money printing overcomes terrible valuations. Valuations have and always will drive markets. They just operate on long cycles and are very imprecise.

Quote

04-28-2020 , 11:32 AM

#4477

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nonfiction

Wow what a turnaround today

Wouldn't surprise me if we break the overnight low on ES and then rally to the VWAP. Day before fed day's are overwhelmingly bullish. Very unlikely, that we stay down all day (although I hope it does).

Quote

04-28-2020 , 11:43 AM

#4478

access denied

newbie

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by djevans

Shorted ZM at market open $164 - my stoploss hit at $159 =(

Shorted TNP at $4.1 - working still - target $3.5

Shorted LVS at $48 - working still - Target $44 and lower

ZM stoploss @ 159? isn't that 5$ profit?

Quote

04-28-2020 , 12:14 PM

#4479

Clayton

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,236

twitter thread i really enjoyed about shorting zombie companies

link

Quote

04-28-2020 , 12:49 PM

#4480

Best Buddy

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2020 Posts: 341

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

Rick, you could be like me and buy $40,000+ worth of deep OTM Boeing puts, hold most of them for a year, have the same dream almost every night that the stock price is going to crash one month after they expire, finally decide to roll them from January expiration into February expiration, watch them expire worthless, and indeed one month later they would have been worth millions and millions of dollars.

Something similar happened to me. Please just don't let it destroy you by poisoning yourself with alcohol.

I would have gone in on that deal with you, especially with the COVID news in Jan-Feb.

Next time someone here has strong intuition let's get a group of stakers together.

(Yes, I know 99% of you think this post is crazy; this post isn't for you.)

Quote

04-28-2020 , 12:50 PM

#4481

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,122

Quote:

Originally Posted by access denied

ZM stoploss @ 159? isn't that 5$ profit?

Correct $5 profit per share i shorted. It was down to $156 and I should of put the stoploss up a bit but I did a $3 trailing stop loss so I think I could of structured it better.

Quote

04-28-2020 , 12:52 PM

#4482

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by Best Buddy

Next time someone here has strong intuition let's get a group of stakers together.

(Yes, I know 99% of you think this post is crazy; this post isn't for you.)

Get real comfy with the IRS on this one.

Quote

04-28-2020 , 04:14 PM

#4483

PuckFokerGo

adept

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 1,094

Very interesting podcast with Jim Bianco where he hypothesizes that USO’s 1:8 reverse split is a setup for massive retail inflows to Crude Oil ETPs this week

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts...ith-jim-bianco

Quote

04-29-2020 , 03:26 AM

#4484

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,472

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jupiter0

put buy stops out for ASLN WKHS above their previous days highs. WKHS hit one of my scans. last time it did that it got good momentum

I kept stalking WKHS with buy stops everyday at 2.60,2.61 and it finally went and I got filled at 2.62 today. Nice day range +18% for a so so overall market. It's had these steady streams of news stories going for days. It was a Trump twitter stock way back when i first traded it.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 05:13 AM

#4485

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by adios

Caveat I don’t trade options much. If you should never buy options because they lose money presumably then selling options has to be highly profitable right?

You can look at the PUT index and compare it to the S&P. It's an index of selling a naked ATM put. I'm not sure if there's CALL index, but if there is, that would answer your question. I'm too lazy to do the analysis. I just sell options to get the underlying at prices I like.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 05:25 AM

#4486

thethrill009

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 830

Quote:

Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::

PBP for covered calls: 90% long the index and the rest selling calls.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

04-29-2020 , 05:29 AM

#4487

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by CandyKreep

Given that Grim was talking about novices, it seems pretty clear to me that his "volatility" comment was in regards to traders who buy options when implied volatility is sky high (like the day of earnings) and then get raped the next session when implied volatility reverts back to normal levels. In such cases you can be right about the thesis and still lose if the move isn't as big as expected. As an options novice, I've done it myself.

I would assume that's what he was talking about.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuckFokerGo

I also assumed he was talking about novices not being aware of/fully understanding time decay and vol crush. I know I learned about vol crush the hard way lol.

Yes, I was mainly talking about novices, but experienced traders can't be expected to accurately predict the timing of the market every time either. And whether vol is low or high, time only goes in 1 direction.

But yes, vol crush is a killer. I'm tracking a couple of OTM calls expiring next week on my watchlist, and they're slightly down this week despite the rally.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 05:52 AM

#4488

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by thethrill009

PBP for covered calls: 90% long the index and the rest selling calls.

By CALL, I meant if there were a long call index.

But I'd assume that covered calls performs similarly as PUT in sideways to up markets. The only diffs I'd expect to see is in large selloffs and V recoveries.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 08:31 AM

#4489

PuckFokerGo

adept

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 1,094

I've been watching The Macro Show by Hedgeye recently and Keith McCullough is particularly bullish VIX and bearish RUT. Based off his risk ranges, VIX is at the bottom end of the range and RUT is at the top. Today I'm getting long VIX and long RWM via stock.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 08:54 AM

#4490

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuckFokerGo

He's a perma bear. Not saying he is wrong, but he is definitely a perma bear.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 08:55 AM

#4491

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

People are fomo'ing hard right now. This will be our sixth gap open of 0.5% or more higher in a row I think.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 08:56 AM

#4492

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

It's not fomo that's making it rip up the last 20 minutes, it's the Gilead drug news.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 09:03 AM

#4493

PuckFokerGo

adept

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 1,094

Quote:

Originally Posted by turtletom

He's a perma bear. Not saying he is wrong, but he is definitely a perma bear.

I know he got bearish in January but doesn't seem like he's a perma bear. Do you have any evidence that he's a perma bear? I'm not trying to sound accusatory just looking for info.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 09:11 AM

#4494

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuckFokerGo

I know he got bearish in January but doesn't seem like he's a perma bear. Do you have any evidence that he's a perma bear? I'm not trying to sound accusatory just looking for info.

He was on CNBC and was bearish from like 2010-2015. I don't know maybe, he has changed his stripes.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 09:30 AM

#4495

zboiii

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 51

Quote:

Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::

You can look at the PUT index and compare it to the S&P. It's an index of selling a naked ATM put. I'm not sure if there's CALL index, but if there is, that would answer your question. I'm too lazy to do the analysis. I just sell options to get the underlying at prices I like.

Any inspiring words about this approach. I've began to dabble with this in a smaller account with $10k and am trying to find 'good' $5-$20 stocks that I wouldn't mind being assigned while trying to grind back some losses from buying & holding puts like a fish. Basically only doing with cash secure to keep me from doing anything over my head on margin.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 09:39 AM

#4496

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Nq has almost given back all it's vaccine gains. Can it gain buyers at VWAP? Or was that the short squeeze, stop run, fomo trade, bull trap of the month?

My guess is we get the buyers and chop until fed.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 09:42 AM

#4497

As1an1nvas1on

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,352

the headlines are all a facade, the market is gonna do what it wants to do

im piling into a short on this push up

Quote

04-29-2020 , 09:53 AM

#4498

PuckFokerGo

adept

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 1,094

Same here, just entered a short position of IWM May 29 129P. Unfortunately my brokerage doesn't allow me to trade VIX or I would have gotten long.

Quote

04-29-2020 , 09:58 AM

#4499

As1an1nvas1on

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,352

we're just adding fuel eh

Quote

04-29-2020 , 10:11 AM

#4500

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuckFokerGo

Same here, just entered a short position of IWM May 29 129P. Unfortunately my brokerage doesn't allow me to trade VIX or I would have gotten long.

You can't get long "vix". Trading the Vix is likely far more complicated than Keith McCullough is making it sound.

By owning the iwm puts, you are kinda sorta long the vix. So you got that working for you.

Last edited by turtletom; 04-29-2020 at 10:16 AM.

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